The Head of the Economics Department at the University of Benghazi, Dr. Helmi Al-Gumati, stated exclusively to our source that the agreement to link Libyan banks to the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System represents a positive step toward modernizing the infrastructure of international payments and facilitating trade transfers with China, particularly in terms of reducing time and costs and supporting the flow of documentary credits.
He explained that this approach could achieve annual savings estimated between $300 million and $1 billion as a result of lowering transfer costs and reducing reliance on intermediaries. It may also partially contribute to reducing demand in the parallel foreign exchange market, which could be reflected in a limited improvement in the exchange rate in the short term.
Al-Gumati added that this impact remains constrained by the structural imbalances in the Libyan economy, given the continuous monthly gap in foreign currency estimated at around $2 billion, meaning that the core of the crisis lies not in payment channels as much as in the imbalance between supply and demand for foreign currency.
He indicated that the impact of this step on the exchange rate may remain within a relative improvement ranging between 10% and 20% at best, while its effect on inflation rates will be limited unless accompanied by effective control of public spending and a reduction in inflationary financing.
He emphasized that the potential positive impact on foreign reserves will remain gradual and limited unless non-oil revenues are strengthened and the efficiency of foreign currency management is improved.
He stressed that the success of this initiative requires integrating it within a broader reform framework that includes unifying fiscal policy, enhancing transparency, and readjusting spending priorities, in a way that ensures sustainable exchange rate stability and restores confidence in the banking sector.
