MBN: Can Libya play the role of savior after the Strait of Hormuz crisis? Here are the details

The MBN network reported on Saturday that the world is suffocating under the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with attention turning to Libya as a potential savior for global energy security.

The network noted that, in principle, Libya’s geographic location and vast oil wealth position it well for such a role. The country overlooks the Mediterranean Sea and holds the largest proven oil reserves in Africa, estimated at around 48 billion barrels. However, geography alone is not enough—there are several other factors that must be considered in answering the key question: can Libya truly play this role?

Belqasem Khalifa Haftar, head of the Development and Reconstruction Fund, told MBN that Libya is qualified for this role and capable of achieving “rapid progress.”

He pointed to the “Derna model,” referring to the city that was struck by Storm Daniel on September 11, 2023. The storm destroyed dams and caused severe damage to property and infrastructure, yet authorities and the fund were able to restore normal life in the city within just two years.

However, from a technical perspective, several factors complicate efforts to increase oil production, which reached about 1.4 million barrels per day in April 2026.

Hafedh Al-Ghwell, Director of the North Africa Program at the Stimson Center, stated that many oil wells have reached the end of their operational life or have been neglected since the 1980s, requiring rehabilitation.

Sabina Henneberg, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, said that corruption remains deeply rooted in Libya, depriving the sector of necessary maintenance funding for fields and wells.

She also noted that international investors are closely monitoring the administrative division between the eastern and western governments, as well as the role of smuggling networks.

Henneberg added that smuggling—whether of weapons, fuel, or people—is supported by the presence of numerous non-state armed groups in Libya, some of which wield significant influence.

She warned that structural problems in Libya’s energy sector continue to limit its potential.

She further explained that the Central Bank has found that large portions of Libya’s oil revenues are often lost without accountability, depriving the energy sector of funds needed for maintenance and investment. Libya is considered a potential alternative energy supplier, especially crude oil, given limited supplies from the Gulf and other regions due to hostilities and restrictions on maritime navigation following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has impacted energy prices and supply.

On the other hand, Haftar is betting on keeping oil neutral in the internal conflict and on the role of the National Oil Corporation in reunifying the country.

He stated: “The corporation plays a crucial role in production and sales, and there is consensus regarding the security and oil situation.”

The network added that the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 2819, imposing strict oversight on Libyan oil exports until August 2027, placing Libya’s oil wealth under international scrutiny to protect it from smuggling networks and corruption.

Meanwhile, Massad Boulos, advisor to the U.S. President for African and Arab affairs, held a phone call with Belqasem Haftar last April, during which they discussed ways to enhance the participation of American companies in the Libyan market and ensure the sustainability of the unified budget to support financial stability in the country.

In conclusion, Libya appears theoretically positioned to play a significant role in supporting global energy security. However, the current technical and political realities impose substantial constraints on this role.