Al-Zantouti: “Beware… Libya Has Only 20 Years or Less of Economic Life Remaining!”

Written by financial analyst Khaled Al-Zantouti

The title may seem somewhat unusual. Nations do not cease to exist as homelands, but they can reach economic collapse when they no longer possess the fundamental resources necessary to sustain their existence, economic influence, and the ability to support life within them.

Unfortunately, I have concluded that if Libya continues on its current path—marked by a lack of awareness and understanding of the economic risks threatening our existence as a state—we will undoubtedly face, within approximately 18 to 20 years, living conditions whose severity only God knows.

Let us examine a few figures and a straightforward analysis based on realistic assumptions.

Until recently, I based some of my analyses on the assumption that Libya’s proven oil reserves exceeded 44 billion barrels. I considered this sufficient to sustain future generations for decades and hoped that, over time, we would diversify our sources of income and reduce our dependence on oil before it was depleted or no longer in demand.

However, I was recently surprised to learn that Libya’s remaining proven oil reserves may not exceed 11 billion barrels.

This conclusion came after discussions with several specialists and after reviewing a number of international technical reports, including a Wood Mackenzie report published in January 2026.

Now let us perform a simple calculation.

Assuming oil production continues at its current average rate of 1.4 million barrels per day, and assuming no new discoveries are made to increase proven reserves, the remaining reserves would be exhausted in approximately 21.5 years.

However, population growth, increasing public expenditure, and the continued absence of spending discipline will likely require higher annual oil production. Under these circumstances, the lifespan of Libya’s proven reserves may be 20 years or even less.

If consumer spending continues to rise unchecked, corruption persists, and oil prices decline for any number of reasons, Libya will inevitably rely increasingly on its remaining reserves until they are depleted.

In the absence of any medium- or long-term strategic plans to diversify sources of national income, this would effectively mark the end of Libya’s economic lifespan, leaving the country—perhaps in less than 18 years—to confront one of its greatest challenges: the struggle for survival, and perhaps even for its very existence.

Undoubtedly, this warning may not concern some individuals, as they have already prepared—or are preparing—for such a day, whether by legitimate means or otherwise. However, most of us have never imagined that such a day could arrive.

Yet it will come, whether we choose to acknowledge it or not, if we continue on our current course.

For this reason, I make a sincere appeal to all our legislative and executive officials:

Imagine the day when Libya’s oil is exhausted. What will become of our country in its present condition?

What are we doing today to prepare for that future?

Would it not be more appropriate to put an end to our internal disputes, hold every corrupt individual accountable, and recover all stolen public funds through justice and the rule of law?

Moreover, has the time not come to end our struggle over power and wealth, move immediately toward national reconciliation, and democratically choose leaders based on competence and integrity—leaders capable of beginning the construction of a new Libya with a diversified economy that no longer depends on oil, a resource that is inevitably finite and exhaustible?

I urge you: change what is within yourselves so that God may change our condition.