Al-Shalwi: A Technical and Economic Analysis of the National Oil Corporation’s July 2026 Data in Light of Official Figures

Written by oil and economic expert “Abdulmonsef Al-Shalwi”

The National Oil Corporation continues to reinforce its approach to disclosure and transparency by publishing detailed monthly data covering production, revenues, partners’ shares, refining volumes, exports, and natural gas production.

This level of disclosure represents an important institutional development, as it allows specialists and the public to analyze economic indicators based on official data and enriches professional discussion surrounding the sector that represents Libya’s primary source of income.

In this context, a number of fellow economic experts have raised legitimate professional questions regarding the decline in oil revenues during July, which amounted to approximately $2.265 billion, despite the average price of Brent crude during the month being around $85.5 per barrel, with higher levels recorded on some trading days.

They also noted that the continued rise in fuel import costs could place additional pressure on public finances and the dinar exchange rate. These observations deserve appreciation, as they reflect concern for the soundness of the national economy.

In my view, these questions become even more important when considered alongside the operational data published by the National Oil Corporation, because monthly revenues in the oil industry are not determined by the price of a barrel alone. Rather, they are affected by a range of technical, commercial, and financial factors governing the production, marketing, and collection cycles.

According to official data, crude oil production during July amounted to 41.714 million barrels, while the Libyan state’s share stood at 36.009 million barrels, compared with 7.974 million barrels representing the partners’ share under the oil agreements.

A total of 3.221 million barrels was also transferred to local refineries to meet market needs, while approximately 439,600 barrels were allocated to operate the Ubari and Mellitah power plants. Total exports amounted to 32.348 million barrels.

The data also showed that natural gas production reached approximately 75.3 billion cubic feet, of which around 73.6 billion cubic feet was allocated for domestic consumption, while actual gas consumption stood at approximately 53.1 billion cubic feet. This reflects the continued central role of gas in powering electricity plants and local industries, while also underscoring the importance of accelerating gas development projects, given their direct impact on strengthening energy security and reducing reliance on imported liquid fuels.

It is also important to note that the Corporation clarified that quantities available for export do not necessarily mean that all of them were produced during the same month. They may include quantities carried over from inventory. Furthermore, revenue collection depends on the timing of cargo loading, payment terms, crude quality, price differentials, inventory movements, and other factors well known in the global oil industry, which naturally affect the value of revenues realized in any given month.

In my assessment, another equally important aspect when analyzing these figures is that higher Brent crude prices do not only increase the value of exported oil; they also lead to higher prices for petroleum products in global markets.

Since Libya still relies on imports for a significant portion of its needs for gasoline, diesel, and fuel used to operate some power plants, rising global prices also increase the cost of these imports.

Therefore, any assessment of the financial impact should consider the full economic equation: on one hand, the value of oil exports increases, while on the other, the cost of importing petroleum products also rises.

If circulating estimates suggest that the fuel import bill may amount to around $1.3 billion during the period, this illustrates that a significant portion of the increase resulting from higher global oil prices may be offset by a corresponding rise in import costs. This makes the net financial impact more complex than simply comparing the price of a barrel with monthly revenues.

Therefore, the continued rise in the fuel import bill should not be interpreted solely as an indicator of the performance of the National Oil Corporation. Rather, it reflects structural challenges that have accumulated over the years, most notably limited refining capacity, continued reliance on imports for part of the country’s petroleum-product needs, and growing domestic demand for fuel and electricity.

Accordingly, sustainable solutions lie in expanding the use of natural gas, increasing refining capacity, and improving energy consumption efficiency. These measures would help reduce the import bill and maximize the added value of Libya’s oil wealth within the national economy.

It is also fair to point out that the National Oil Corporation did not limit itself to announcing revenue figures. It simultaneously published detailed data on production, exports, refining, partners’ shares, and gas production. These data provide a scientific basis for any objective economic or financial analysis.

The higher the level of disclosure, the more accurate the analyses become, and the greater the space for professional discussion based on official data. This ultimately serves the interests of the state, its institutions, and the public.

It may also be useful to examine these indicators within a broader timeframe rather than viewing them in isolation over a single month. Comparing successive monthly data on production, exports, and revenues, and linking them to average global oil prices and developments in energy markets, provides a more accurate understanding of performance trends and helps distinguish temporary changes from structural transformations.

Therefore, a cumulative analysis of data from the first seven months of 2026 would be better able to explain the relationship between production and revenues, measure the impact of global oil prices, and assess the actual effects of the fuel import bill on net oil revenues.

In my view, the most important issue is not explaining the revenues of a single month, but rather determining how to maximize the net economic return from every barrel of oil and every cubic foot of gas produced by Libya.

Achieving this requires continued development of gas projects, improving refinery efficiency, reducing reliance on fuel imports, and strengthening integration between the production, refining, and electricity sectors. This would have a positive impact on public finances and foreign-currency reserves.

In conclusion, differences in perspectives among economic experts and oil-sector specialists are natural and enrich public debate, as each approaches the issue from a different professional perspective. When economic data are read alongside operational data, the picture becomes more complete, and the discussion becomes more useful to policymakers and the public.

Perhaps the most important aspect of this discussion is that it is based on official data provided by the National Oil Corporation as part of its continued commitment to disclosure and transparency. This institutional practice deserves support, as it represents the foundation upon which sound scientific analyses are built and contributes to establishing a culture of professional dialogue based on figures and facts, ultimately serving the national interest.