Al-Hdhiri: Libya and Two Million Barrels per Day… Has the Equation Changed, or Are the Promises Being Repeated?

By: Oil Legal Expert Othman Al-Hdhiri

Official statements from the management of the National Oil Corporation have once again raised hopes of increasing Libya’s oil production to the usual target of two million barrels per day by the beginning of the next decade. This time, the goal is based on the approval of the country’s first unified budget, which allocated funding to the Corporation to operate oil fields, maintain infrastructure, implement development projects, and attract foreign investment.

No one disagrees that providing funding is an essential element in developing the oil sector. However, Libya’s experience has taught us that funding alone does not produce results.

And here is where the first questions arise.

In 2023, the Corporation received an exceptional budget exceeding LYD 52 billion. At the time, it was said that these allocations would lead to increased production, field rehabilitation, resolution of maintenance problems, and implementation of delayed development projects.

Today, after several years have passed, Libyans have the right to ask:

What was achieved with that budget?

How many projects were completed?

How many wells became operational?

How many fields were rehabilitated?

And how much did production sustainably increase as a result of that spending?

These are not questions intended to cast doubt. They are simply the most basic performance evaluation criteria for any institution managing the state’s most important economic resource.

The Problem Is Not Just the Budget

Talking about a new budget may provide a boost of optimism, but it does not answer the most important question:

What has changed within Libya’s oil sector?

If the executive management of the Corporation and several major companies remains largely the same, if decision-making mechanisms have not fundamentally changed, and if administrative and bureaucratic procedures remain as they are, what will lead to different results?

In management, results do not change simply because spending increases. They change when the way the organization is managed changes.

Is the Problem with the People or the System?

This is the question that comes up on every occasion.

The answer is not simple.

It is unfair to place all responsibility on specific individuals, just as it is unreasonable to absolve current and previous managements of responsibility for the results.

The reality is that Libya’s oil sector operates within a complex environment. In recent years, it has suffered from political division, field closures, delays in budget approvals, overlapping authorities, and security instability. These factors have placed a heavy burden on the sector and hindered the implementation of many projects.

But these challenges do not explain everything.

Successful management is measured by its ability to manage crises, set priorities, make the best use of available resources, turn budgets into projects, and turn projects into production.

If administrative performance remains unchanged, however, more money may simply mean more spending, not more production.

Where Is the Transparency?

If the state is asking citizens to be optimistic about a plan to reach two million barrels per day, citizens also have the right to see the implementation plan.

We need clear answers, not slogans.

What is the required investment?

Which projects are priorities?

What is the timeline for each project?

What is the current completion rate?

And who is responsible for each stage?

Most importantly:

How will success be measured?

Transparency is not an administrative luxury. It is the only guarantee for building trust between institutions and the public.

Investors Do Not Buy Promises

The world today does not look at statements; it looks at indicators.

Global companies do not invest simply because there is a budget. They invest because they see stability in decision-making, efficient procedures, clear contracts, and institutions capable of delivering what they announce.

Therefore, the success of the plan to reach two million barrels per day will not be measured by the amount of money allocated, but by the speed of project implementation, production stability, improved operational efficiency, and the sector’s ability to attract new investments.

What Can We Conclude from the Above?

Libya possesses all the fundamentals needed to increase its oil production: vast reserves, low production costs, a strategic location, and expertise accumulated over decades.

But these advantages alone are not enough.

Experience has demonstrated that budgets create opportunities, while management produces results.

Therefore, the real question is not: Do we have the money?

Nor is it even: Can we reach two million barrels per day?

The question that must come before all of this is:

Have we learned from the experience of 2023? And have management, implementation mechanisms, and accountability changed enough to prevent us from repeating the same mistakes?

If the answer is yes, then the target becomes realistic.

But if the tools remain the same, the figures will continue to change in press releases and media statements, while reality remains far behind.