Banking expert Mohammed Abu Snina wrote an article inspired by the lecture “The Fourth Industrial Revolution” delivered by Professor Al-Madani Dakheel on September 6, 2025, at the headquarters of the Peace and Prosperity Party:
A Vision Toward a Better Future for Libya
Economists write, comment, and discuss many events and developments in the economic sphere, addressing financial and economic issues and challenges that the Libyan economy has faced for over a decade and even before that. Their articles and research often cover: exchange rates, inflation, public debt, subsidies, money supply, liquidity, the black market, the state budget, economic policies, salaries, public spending, banks, and many other topics that occupy researchers, media professionals, and stakeholders at various levels.
Meanwhile, their peers in other disciplines focus on social, political, and security issues, creating the impression that no other matters are more important than these topics. Much of what is discussed is a repetition of what has been said and written on multiple occasions.
In reality, these economic problems and distortions are symptoms of structural issues within the Libyan economy. Temporary remedies are applied, which quickly lose effectiveness, giving way to new bottlenecks. These issues are rarely addressed through long-term strategies based on in-depth foresight studies and radical solutions. This is a natural outcome of the foundations on which the Libyan economy was built, its management style, resource allocation methods, and policies followed over the past seventy years, which have not undergone significant change.
Economists may find themselves consumed by these issues because there is little attention given to other matters, or because these issues are imposed by the unstable conditions and their impact on citizens’ daily lives.
As a result of neglecting structural challenges and focusing on symptomatic issues, the Libyan economy remains distorted and fragile in facing shocks. Some economic challenges have become more complex, leading to severe social and economic consequences, such as high unemployment, increased crime, rising poverty rates, shrinking middle class, growing corruption, weak public trust in institutions, an expanding shadow economy, and declining public services and bureaucratic inefficiency.
This does not mean that addressing these issues is unimportant or should be ignored.
However, there are more critical challenges regarding Libya’s economic future and geopolitical position in a rapidly evolving global economy, particularly in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which is drawing worldwide attention. These developments threaten the sustainability of Libya’s economic and social growth and the quality of life if current economic conditions, resource allocation patterns, and institutional structures continue, and if the country remains focused on marginal issues while neglecting future-oriented strategies.
The rapid global developments of the Fourth Industrial Revolution—information technology, automation, digitization, computing, organizational internet, neurotechnology, AI, positioning technologies, digital currencies, autonomous vehicles, supply chains, IoT, renewable energy, robotics, nanotechnology, Web3, and other innovations—will have profound economic, social, and political implications. New global players and international alliances are emerging, and changes in the global financial system are expected, affecting all nations, including Libya.
Many countries have recognized these upcoming changes and established plans and visions to adapt. Libya is not isolated; it interacts with other countries and relies heavily on external economies. Thus, these developments will inevitably impact Libya’s economy and the quality of life of its citizens. Failure to adapt risks technological isolation and a lack of alignment with advanced countries and international institutions, especially in economic, financial, and technological domains.
We must ask: How do these global developments relate to Libya’s future economy and population? How can they become sources of concern if not addressed? Why is it critical to sound the alarm and prioritize preparing for them, as other nations have done to benefit their citizens and leverage scientific progress?
The reasons for concern include:
- Libya has relied on a single natural resource—oil—for over 90% of public spending since independence. Foreign companies largely handle its extraction.
- Oil is a finite resource, and what happens when it runs out?
- With the world shifting toward renewable energy, fossil fuels are losing market share, threatening oil prices and revenue. If crude oil drops below $50 per barrel, how will the government meet its obligations?
- The Libyan economy is heavily import-dependent, with over 80% of exports coming from a single commodity, exposing it to external shocks.
- Libya’s vast territory, sparse population, urban growth, and coastal concentration make balanced service delivery difficult, further strained by climate change.
- Weak disaster and climate change response systems exacerbate vulnerabilities.
- Rising irregular migration has economic, social, demographic, and environmental impacts.
These factors, combined with limited strategic vision and lack of preparation, pose existential risks to Libya under the Fourth Industrial Revolution, potentially isolating it internationally.
The challenges previously dominating economists’ attention, along with some social and political concerns, have hindered focus on these critical existential issues.
Key reasons include:
- Absence of a unified vision for Libya’s economic future, resource utilization, income diversification, and global economic positioning.
- The dominance of a rentier culture shaping social and economic behavior, resistant to change.
- Low investment in scientific research and education systems lagging global developments.
- Weak linkage between research institutions and industry, with the public sector dominating economic activity.
- Rising corruption, inefficient resource allocation, missing or flawed economic policies, and lack of governance and accountability.
The essential question: How can Libya overcome these challenges and prepare for the Fourth Industrial Revolution?
Proposed measures:
- Develop a unified vision for Libya’s future economy, resource use, and strategic goals.
- Diversify the economy vertically, leveraging existing oil resources and targeting sectors with comparative advantages (geography, coastlines, solar energy, transit trade, free zones, tourism, export industries).
- Modernize the education system to meet the Fourth Industrial Revolution’s requirements.
- Implement a digital government strategy, including initiatives like “Your Instant Salary,” streamline administration, and reduce centralization.
- Empower the national private sector to expand economic activity, foreign currency resources, and budget revenues.
- Restructure state institutions to be inclusive and enforce governance and accountability.
- Assign IT experts to explore opportunities from digital transformation.
- Integrate environmental feasibility and anti-corruption measures into project approval processes.
- Address irregular migration and regulate foreign labor in Libya.
