Legal expert in the oil sector Othman Al‑Hdhiri wrote an article in which he stated:
If the United States were to gain control over Venezuela’s oil resources, this would likely have several implications for oil prices and global markets, including:An increase in global oil supply: U.S. control over Venezuelan oil could lead to higher production and exports in larger volumes, thereby boosting supply in global markets.Lower oil prices in the medium term: Expanded global supply could push prices downward, especially if demand levels remain largely unchanged.
A significant impact on OPEC’s influence: U.S. control over Venezuelan oil may weaken OPEC’s ability to manage prices by reducing Venezuela’s role as an influential member, and could even lead to its withdrawal.Geopolitical shifts: Such control could heighten geopolitical tensions with countries like Russia and Iran, potentially affecting overall oil market stability.Improved stability in Venezuela: If resources are managed and invested efficiently under U.S. oversight, Venezuelan oil productivity could improve, contributing to greater market stability, an outcome reflected in Trump’s statements expressing a desire to sell Venezuelan oil globally.Reactions from other countries: Other producers may increase output or take countermeasures to offset the effects of U.S. control, potentially balancing the impact of the added supply.
In short, U.S. control over Venezuelan oil is likely to increase global supply, which could lead to lower oil prices in the medium term, alongside the possibility of near-term geopolitical volatility affecting the market.
My advice to those recklessly managing the oil sector is to reassess the situation, invest what remains of our vital oil wealth for the benefit of our people, and return to sound, law-governed procedures and legislation before it is too late.
