Al-Shalwi: The Western Mediterranean from Egypt’s Perspective and the Eastern Mediterranean from Libya’s: What Do the Results of (Velox-1X) Mean for Libya?

Written by: Oil and Economic Expert Abdelmonsef Al-Shalwi

Just a few hours ago, the Egyptian Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources announced results that represent one of the most notable exploration developments in the Mediterranean in recent times, following the successful drilling of the offshore Velox-1X well, which identified promising hydrocarbon indications and produced a sample of crude oil. Although the announcement does not, at this stage, amount to a commercial discovery, its real significance lies in the geological and investment messages it conveys—not only to Egypt, but to all Mediterranean coastal states, foremost among them Libya.

Before examining the implications of this development, it is important to point out a geographical issue that may seem simple but is important for understanding the subject. The area that Egypt describes as being in the western Mediterranean is indeed so from its geographical perspective, while from the Libyan perspective, it lies in the opposite direction, to the east and northeast of Libya’s maritime area. Therefore, referring to the “Western Mediterranean” in the Egyptian announcement does not mean that the area is far removed from Libya’s interests. On the contrary, it forms part of the regional geological landscape that Libya should closely and carefully monitor.

At the same time, it is important not to confuse the presence of hydrocarbon indications with a commercial discovery. What Egypt has announced so far confirms the existence of an active petroleum system and the presence of crude oil in the well, but it does not yet establish the existence of reserves that can be economically produced. Evaluation work and technical testing will ultimately determine the commercial value of the discovery.

Why does this news deserve Libya’s attention?

Because exploration is not built on news, but on information. Every successful exploration well, even if it does not develop into a producing field, adds a huge amount of geological and geophysical data that helps improve understanding of the sedimentary basin, refine geological models, reinterpret seismic data, and guide future investments.

From this particular perspective, what has happened in Egyptian waters represents an important scientific indicator that deserves careful consideration within Libya—not merely as the success of a neighboring country, but as new information concerning one of the Mediterranean’s most important basins.

However, it is also essential to emphasize a scientific fact that should not be exaggerated: the similarity or proximity of sedimentary basins does not necessarily mean that comparable reserves exist on both sides of maritime boundaries. Geological structures, source rocks, reservoirs, seals, migration pathways, and petroleum traps may differ from one location to another, even within the same basin.

Therefore, a professional assessment should not be based on making optimistic or pessimistic predictions, but rather on using new data to advance scientific understanding of Libya’s offshore areas.

The Most Important Message Is Not Merely Geological

What is also noteworthy is the continued flow of global investment into the Mediterranean. International companies do not invest hundreds of millions of dollars based solely on expectations. Rather, they rely on accumulated data, a stable investment environment, clear contracts, swift decision-making, and an attractive legal framework.

Herein lies one of the important messages for Libya: competition in the exploration sector is no longer solely between countries in terms of natural resources. It is increasingly a competition between investment environments and between those capable of providing information, stability, financing, swift decision-making, and an attractive legal framework.

What Should Libya Do?

In my view, Libya does not need media reactions or emotional statements. Rather, it needs a calm national action program based on science and the national interest, including:

1. Reassessing and reinterpreting offshore seismic data using the latest technologies.
2. Expanding offshore surveying activities, particularly in areas that have not been sufficiently explored.
3. Preparing a national map identifying offshore exploration priorities for the coming years.
4. Monitoring all discoveries and drilling results in the eastern, central, and western Mediterranean to benefit from them scientifically.
5. Enhancing the National Oil Corporation’s readiness to attract high-quality offshore investments when the appropriate conditions are in place.

This development also reaffirms the importance of continued attention to Libya’s maritime areas, including those whose strategic importance we have addressed in previous articles, as they represent a sovereign and economic asset for future generations that deserves to be managed through a scientific approach, without exaggerating or underestimating its importance.

Conclusion

What Egypt announced a few hours ago is not a confirmed commercial discovery, but it is undoubtedly an important exploration development that deserves to be monitored.

For Libya, the message is not that oil has become closer or farther away. Rather, it is that geological knowledge of the Mediterranean is continuously evolving, and that the countries that keep pace with this development through science, investment, and planning will be best positioned to transform their natural potential into real wealth.

Therefore, the results of Velox-1X should not be viewed from the perspective of competition with Egypt, but rather from the perspective of maximizing Libya’s opportunities, benefiting from every new piece of information that supports our understanding of our offshore basins, enhances investment opportunities, and safeguards Libya’s sovereign rights in a manner that serves its economic security and the future of its generations.

Ultimately, natural resources alone do not create success stories. Success is created by accurate data, strategic vision, sound decision-making, and sustainable investment. This is the most important message Libya should draw from this regional development.