Financial analyst Khaled Al-Zantouti stated exclusively to our source that many people welcomed the recent rise in oil prices due to the Gulf war. Indeed, Brent crude prices have increased by more than 50% on average during March, rising from around $72 per barrel at the end of February to over $110, closing today at $106 per barrel. “Thanks be to God, but…”
He added: Do we expect our oil revenues to increase by the same percentage (over 50%) during March? Logically, the answer should be yes, meaning our monthly income should reach more than 150% compared to previous months. However, this is far from reality.
First, most of our consumption is imported. As you may notice, production costs in exporting countries have risen significantly due to higher energy prices, raw materials, transportation, and insurance costs. The result, unfortunately, will be negative—what we gain on one side may be lost on the other, perhaps even more.
Second, we must not forget the controversial barter arrangements, which could consume a large portion of revenues. It is also possible that not all oil revenues will be transferred to the Central Bank, as has happened before.
Third, Trump’s declared target is $60 per barrel, meaning he will likely push to end the war quickly—especially since Iran currently holds a strong card through the Strait of Hormuz.
He concluded: Unfortunately, we may end up losing. Traders will likely exploit these conditions to raise prices, inflation will increase, and officials may celebrate and open new channels of spending without justification.
With these outcomes, he concluded: “As if you, Abu Zaid, never went to battle.”
