Strategic expert Daniele Ruvinetti stated to our source on Sunday that the threat of an oil blockade remains high. Historically, forces in eastern Libya have used control over oil facilities as a means of pressure in political disputes. If no political solution is reached, the situation could escalate not only into an economic crisis but also into a military confrontation, as occurred in the past.
Ruvinetti continued by saying that Libya’s history shows that such disputes often begin with the suspension of oil production and exerting pressure on Tripoli, eventually escalating into armed clashes between competing groups. Given the already volatile environment, it is essential to prevent such scenarios by accelerating efforts toward a government transition.
Ruvinetti increasingly views the continued presence of the Dbeibeh administration as an obstacle to stability. Removing this obstacle through an organized political process is crucial to de-escalating tensions and preventing Libya from becoming a more dangerous flashpoint in an already heated regional context, according to him.
