Global Platts, the British agency, revealed part of its 2025 commodities series today, also focusing on the oil and gas sector.
According to the agency, Libyan oil production rose in November to 1.17 million barrels per day, according to estimates from Standard & Poor’s Global Commodity Insights. This is the highest production figure since October 2022. However, considering the volatile security situation and the fractured policies in the country, the recovery is unlikely to last long, according to Libya observers.
The British agency stated that Libya holds the largest reserves of oil and gas in Africa, but it has been mired in chaos since the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 and has not yet recovered. In 2014, the country was divided between two competing governments in the west and east.
The agency noted that following a weeks-long oil shutdown due to a dispute over the leadership of the Libyan Central Bank, which ended in early October, oil production rose.
Analysts stated that the vital sector will remain at the mercy of political actors in the coming year.
A source from the oil and gas sector in Tripoli, who requested anonymity, said: “If anyone understands what will happen politically in 2025, they will understand what will happen in the oil and gas sector. The National Oil Corporation wants to say that production is rising and things are stable, but 2025 will be similar to 2024.”
The agency confirmed that key issues on the agenda include negotiations between the National Oil Corporation and foreign companies about major projects, the impact of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s fall on political stability in Libya, and the fragile ceasefire between Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and Libyan National Army Commander Khalifa Haftar in the east of the country.
Prominent analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, Hamish Kinnear, stated that 2025 presents mixed prospects for Libya’s oil and gas sector. On one hand, Libya’s production reaches record levels, global oil companies resume exploration, and the sector sees its best performance since the 2011 civil war. On the other hand, the recent central bank crisis and oil and gas shutdowns, along with Libya’s entrenched political conflict, could lead to sudden disruptions in the country once again, according to the British agency.
