Libya’s Oil Crisis: A War Ongoing Since 2011 With No End in Sight, OilPrice Reveals New Details

OilPrice reported on Tuesday that, as more than 40 oil companies have expressed interest in Libya’s first oil-field licensing round since the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, the National Oil Corporation has voiced confidence in its ability to raise oil production to two million barrels per day by 2028.

According to the report, this interest targets 22 onshore and offshore areas to be licensed, following last year’s agreements between the National Oil Corporation and the British companies Shell and BP to assess exploration opportunities in Libya. Shortly thereafter, the U.S. oil giant Exxon Mobil signed an agreement to conduct technical studies on a number of offshore areas.

Chevron has also confirmed its intention to return to the country after leaving in 2010. However, the key question for oil markets remains: does this influx of Western companies signal genuine political stability in Libya that would finally allow it to realize its full oil potential?

The site added that, prior to 2011, the National Oil Corporation had plans to adopt enhanced oil recovery technologies to boost crude output from existing fields. At the time, expectations suggested these technologies could increase production capacity by around 775,000 barrels per day.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, about 80% of Libya’s currently discovered and recoverable reserves are located in the Sirte Basin, which also accounts for most of the country’s production capacity. At the height of the civil war, crude output fell to around 20,000 barrels per day. Although it has since recovered to nearly 1.4 million barrels per day, the highest level since mid-2013, repeated politically motivated shutdowns in recent years have driven production down to just over 500,000 barrels per day for extended periods.

The report noted that the general strategy of Washington and London in Libya is to re-establish a robust on-the-ground presence for Western companies across multiple sites. Through sustained investment nationwide, the resulting political influence could be leveraged to implement peace mechanisms, an approach similar to that currently applied in Syria. However, Western presence in Libya has not declined to the same extent as it has in Syria.

The site further explained that in 2021, when the National Oil Corporation first announced serious plans to significantly raise production, then to 1.6 million barrels per day and possibly to two million—the French energy giant TotalEnergies agreed to continue efforts to increase output from the Waha, Sharara, Mabrouk, and Al Jurf mega-fields by at least 175,000 barrels per day. It also prioritized development of the Waha concession in the North Jalo fields. The Waha concessions, of which Total acquired a minority stake in 2019, have the capacity to produce at least 350,000 barrels per day, according to the National Oil Corporation, which added that Total would also contribute to maintaining aging equipment and crude-oil pipelines in need of replacement.