Sada Surveys the Audit Bureau and Experts: A Runaway Dollar, Revenues Without Impact, and Development on Paper… 2026 Begins with an Early Economic Warning

With only one day left before the curtain falls on 2026, questions are mounting about the fate of the year and the economic and financial conditions it has produced amid a series of accumulated challenges. This year came as an extension of a phase marked by clear contradictions—most notably Parliament’s approval, on the last day of 2025, of a three-year development budget worth 69 billion, coinciding with a decline in revenues transferred to the Central Bank, continued pressure on the exchange rate, and what the Audit Bureau’s report revealed of violations and financial crimes.

Between development ambitions, the reality of economic indicators, and the future of exchange companies and the exchange rate, 2026 finds itself surrounded by legitimate questions about implementation levels, the ability to achieve financial stability, and the impact of adopted policies on citizens’ lives and the macroeconomy. This opens the door to a calm analytical reading grounded in facts and expert assessments, away from exaggeration or justification.

The Head of the Audit Bureau, Khaled Shakshak, told Sada Economic that the country’s economic situation is poor and concerning, and that the deficit persists at both local and foreign currency revenue levels amid rising risks. He stressed that the solution lies in unifying the authorities responsible for managing public funds, unifying the budget, ensuring accountability, and addressing the political impasse. He recommended consensus and institutional unification so there is a single authority, a unified budget, real oversight, and transparency—outcomes that can only be achieved through unifying authorities.

For his part, Abdulbasit Al-Jaboua, Director of the General Administration for Oversight of the Energy Sector and Public Companies, told Sada exclusively that the main reason behind the country’s economic situation is deteriorating conditions and instability in the Libyan dinar’s exchange rate. This is due to the scale of spending during 2024 and 2025, in both eastern and western regions. Spending exceeded collected revenues, placing significant pressure on the Central Bank regarding foreign currency, affecting the balance of payments and resulting in a deficit detailed in the Audit Bureau’s report.

Meanwhile, Abu Bakr Abu Al-Qasim, Head of the Accounting Department at the Libyan Academy, said the Libyan economy entered 2025 under increasing pressure—most notably a widening budget deficit and a persistent balance-of-payments imbalance—amid high and uncontrolled public spending, weak revenue collection including from the oil sector, and rampant corruption alongside weak performance by oversight institutions. These conditions directly affected citizens’ lives, contributing to higher inflation and erosion of purchasing power.

He added that the Libyan dinar faces ongoing pressure against foreign currencies due to rising demand for foreign exchange to finance imports and declining confidence in economic policies, pushing up dollar prices and the cost of basic goods and services. With limited policy tools, the citizen has become the weakest link in the financial and monetary imbalance.

These challenges are compounded by continued institutional fragmentation and multiple decision centers, weakening coordination between fiscal and monetary policies and delaying real reforms to address the twin deficits—costs borne by citizens through inflation. As 2026 approaches, serious questions arise about the economy’s ability to curb inflation, protect the national currency’s value, and restore a minimum level of economic and living stability. In the short term, this requires urgent measures, foremost among them: curbing runaway spending and agreeing on a single national budget within available revenue ceilings; improving governance of public revenues, especially the oil sector; activating oversight bodies to combat entrenched corruption; harmonizing economic policies across trade, fiscal, and monetary fronts; and reforming fuel subsidies that consume more than 30% of the budget.

Abu Al-Qasim concluded that continued financial and economic mismanagement—as in 2025 and prior years—will inevitably worsen conditions in 2026, with citizens once again paying the price.

Economic expert Suleiman Al-Shahoumi said 2025 was a year when the truth about Libya’s economic and monetary situation became fully apparent, marked by unprecedented runaway spending and legislative indifference to regulating public expenditure through a unified legal framework. He cited the so-called public debt law setting debt above 300 billion without scrutiny, shrinking oil revenues, loss and opacity of oil data, and a central bank that proved not truly unified and bears responsibility for today’s severe liquidity crisis.

He added that oversight institutions have failed in their roles, with unprecedented waste of public funds and corruption in contracting. Demand for dollars surged, fueled by the liquidity crunch and market distortions, while the Central Bank’s isolated actions and erratic monetary policies—amid loss of effective tools like interest rates—failed to improve conditions. He called for comprehensive restructuring of spending, fiscal tools (including tax and customs reform), and capable monetary policies to manage liquidity.

Mohamed Al-Senussi said 2025 was economically disastrous, with oil revenues not fully transferred to the Central Bank despite claims that barter had stopped—when it continues in other forms. Dual spending without a budget persists, explaining deficits in Central Bank data. He stressed that fiscal policy drives the real economy in Libya and that monetary policy should support it, not firefight its failures. He warned 2026 would be worse without unified budgeting, full revenue transfers, adequate liquidity provision, and exchange-rate adjustment to meet demand. He proposed quick fixes—exchange-rate adjustment, adequate liquidity, lower e-payment fees—and political solutions, including a single government, unified budget, and anti-corruption measures.

Businessman Hosni B. said Libya’s economy, despite vast oil resources, remains on the brink of unsustainability due to soaring spending, falling oil prices, persistent liquidity crisis, and a flawed economic model. He estimated public spending exceeding 230 billion dinars in 2025, a revenue-expenditure gap over 30 billion, and reliance on foreign-currency sales and reserves—weakening the state’s medium- and long-term position. He argued the liquidity crisis is one of trust, not money scarcity, and criticized the fixed exchange-rate policy for fueling speculation, parallel markets, hoarding, and liquidity stress. He called for flexible exchange rates, unified fiscal and monetary decisions, spending rationalization, private-sector empowerment, transparency, and redefining the state’s role.

Former Central Bank board member Murajeh Ghaith said 2025 was marked by inflation, higher prices, and chronic liquidity shortages. He urged rationalizing dollar use toward productive ends, approving a unified budget, controlling spending, and monitoring foreign-currency use. Without these, no improvement is possible in 2026.

Economist Mohamed Al-Barghouthi said 2025 was fragile rather than collapsed—temporary stability masking deep structural imbalances. Oil revenues exist but fail to translate into durable exchange-rate stability or purchasing-power gains due to weak management, lack of transparency, delayed revenue collection, and political interference. He warned that continued high spending and delayed reforms could renew pressure on the exchange rate and inflation in 2026, while genuine reforms—depoliticizing the economy, improving revenue governance, and restructuring toward production—could preserve and gradually improve stability.

Finally, economist Mohamed Al-Rafadi said Libya’s reported growth—around 13%—is fragile and misleading, driven by oil prices and stable production rather than real performance. Chronic fiscal deficits, political division, poor resource management, uncoordinated fiscal and monetary policies, and politicization of economic tools persist. True assessment lies in living standards, which continue to deteriorate. Without deep treatment, he warned of inevitable economic collapse, stressing that the crisis is fundamentally political and that recovery requires insulating the economy from political conflict and building competent, independent economic management.

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