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Al-Barghouthi Writes: The Central Bank and the Postponement of the Collapse of the Libyan Dinar… A Late Early Warning

Professor of Political Economy Mohamed Al-Barghouthi wrote an article in which he stated:

Despite all the efforts of the Central Bank of Libya to control the monetary situation, the economic reality remains more fragile than ever before.What is happening today can only be described as a temporary postponement of a potential collapse, not real stability based on economic or financial strength.

Since the beginning of 2024, public spending has increased outside the framework of a unified budget, and governments have continued to adopt an unrestricted spending policy. With the absence of fiscal discipline, pressure has clearly begun to appear on the exchange rate, on reserves, and on the Central Bank’s ability to defend the dinar.The International Monetary Fund warned in its latest report that Libya faces a twin deficit in public finances and the current account, and that continuing high spending without a political agreement will place the currency under increasing pressure.

Although reserves appear to be at a comfortable level, the pace at which they are being depleted is concerning, as the Central Bank has become the sole entity bearing the cost of protecting the exchange rate.Raising the mandatory reserve ratio to 30%, increasing the liquidity ratio to 35%, and issuing investment certificates are all measures that provide extra time, but they do not address the root cause of the problem. A currency does not collapse due to a lack of monetary tools, but due to a persistent gap between public spending and the real economy’s ability to generate foreign currency. This gap is widening, and the parallel market is the silent indicator. The wider the gap between it and the official rate, the higher the cost of defending the dinar, and the less effective the Central Bank’s intervention becomes. With declining fiscal discipline, even a small drop in oil prices is enough to push the dinar rapidly toward a breaking point.

The reality that must be confronted is that the Central Bank is succeeding in delaying the collapse, but it cannot prevent it alone. If spending continues to exceed the state’s real capacity, if institutional division persists, and if the deficit continues to be financed without reforms, the dinar will enter a phase where no monetary policy can save it.

This warning is not a call for panic, but a call to understand that we are approaching the edge — and that crisis management requires financial and institutional consensus before it is too late.

Exclusive: Central Bank Reveals to Sada the Arrival of Cash Shipments to Libya Starting Today, in Preparation for Distribution from December Until Ramadan 2026

The Central Bank of Libya stated exclusively to our source that shipments of cash began arriving in Libya today and will be delivered to the Issuance Department at the Central Bank.

These shipments will continue to arrive in the coming period in preparation for distributing cash to branches of commercial banks starting from next December and continuing until Ramadan 2026.

This measure comes to meet the needs of all customers and citizens across all regions of Libya.

Exclusive: Central Bank Board Decides to Inject Over $2 Billion to Cover Letters of Credit and Personal Purposes Starting December

The Central Bank of Libya revealed exclusively to our source that the Board of Directors has decided to inject more than $2 billion to cover existing letters of credit and personal-use allocations for commercial banks starting next Monday, the beginning of December.

This measure aims to complete settlements before the end of the year and ensure the availability of goods for the first quarter of next year, ahead of the month of Ramadan.

Exclusive: Central Bank Issues Strict Warning to Banks: Tighten Letter of Credit Procedures or Face Penalties

Our source has exclusively obtained a circular from the Central Bank of Libya addressed to commercial banks and their compliance units regarding the issuance of letters of credit. This follows the bank’s observation of weak compliance with regulatory and supervisory requirements aimed at mitigating risks that banks may face both locally and internationally.

The Central Bank noted that the main issues include the presence of operating licenses that do not match the type of imported goods, along with the failure to provide several documents, including: tax clearance, valid commercial registration, value deduction documents, and proof of using electronic payment methods.

The Central Bank concluded its communication to banks by stating: All instructions must be strictly followed, and the integrity of the procedures for issuing letters of credit must be ensured to avoid negative consequences that could expose the banking sector to local and international reputational risks. Banks in violation will face legal measures against their management.

Exclusive: Central Bank: Preparing for a Unified Budget for 2026 Following Agreement of Parties

The Central Bank of Libya revealed exclusively to our source that, following the step to unify development spending today, there is a move towards preparing a unified budget for 2026 after the relevant parties reached an agreement.

According to the Central Bank, this coincides with studying the proposal to cancel the tax on the sale of foreign currency.

Exclusive: The Central Bank Reveals Unified Development Spending Driven by the Governor’s Efforts — Details Inside

The Central Bank of Libya revealed exclusively to our source the unification of development spending, after its coordination efforts with the House of Representatives and the High Council of State culminated in an agreement on this step.

According to the Central Bank, this move is expected to have positive effects on financial stability and improve the allocation of public resources.The Central Bank welcomed the signing of the agreement on the unified development program between the House of Representatives and the High Council of State, considering it an important national step toward enhancing financial stability and unifying development efforts across all regions of Libya.

The Bank stated: “We affirm our support for the agreement, which reflects the spirit of shared responsibility, strengthens the principles of transparency and governance, and provides a clear framework for unifying spending channels and financing development projects. It will positively impact the economy by directing resources toward productive investments in sectors such as infrastructure, education, and health, thereby promoting economic growth and improving social conditions.”

The Central Bank added: “This measure will contribute to achieving economic stability and ensuring fairness in resource distribution, as well as advancing sustainable development. It is considered a proactive and necessary step to protect the macroeconomy from greater crises previously warned about by the Central Bank’s Board of Directors.”

The Bank continued: “The Central Bank of Libya values the provisions contained in this agreement and confirms its full readiness to implement the tasks entrusted to it in accordance with the applicable legislation. We renew our commitment to working with all national parties in a spirit of cooperation and coordination to ensure the success of this agreement and the achievement of its objectives in service of the nation and citizens.”

IMF Praises Central Bank Measures and Calls for the Success of the “Instant Salary” Initiative — Details Inside

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued on Sunday, 16 November 2025, a concluding statement for the preliminary meetings of the 2026 Article IV consultations, which were held last week with the participation of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) and relevant entities, including the Ministry of Economy and Trade, the Ministry of Planning, the National Oil Corporation, the Audit Bureau, and the Bureau of Statistics and Census.

After assessing the current state of the Libyan economy, the IMF mission experts praised the measures taken by the Central Bank of Libya, which contributed to maintaining financial stability despite recurring economic challenges.

The IMF called for supporting CBL’s ongoing efforts by ensuring the success of the “Instant Salary” initiative, which will help achieve a unified treasury account. The Fund also stressed the importance of unifying the state’s general budget and avoiding pro-cyclical fiscal policy.The mission further welcomed the steps taken by the Central Bank to accelerate economic digitalization, reduce reliance on cash, and enhance financial inclusion.Additionally, the IMF mission welcomed the Central Bank of Libya’s official accession to the Central Bank Transparency Code.

Attached is the link to the IMF mission statement following the conclusion of their visit to Libya: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/11/14/pr-25376-libya-imf-staff-concludes-visit

In Numbers and Details: The Central Bank Reveals a Financial Paradox Between Surplus and Deficit

The Central Bank of Libya disclosed that total revenues during the first ten months of 2025 amounted to 103.4 billion dinars, while expenditures reached 95.1 billion dinars, resulting in a surplus of 8.3 billion dinars.
Expenditures included:

  • Salaries: 55.2 billion
  • Operational expenses: 4.2 billion
  • Development: 3.7 billion
  • Subsidies: 32 billion
  • Emergency: 0

However, the foreign currency deficit reached 6.4 billion U.S. dollars due to the decline in oil revenues. The deficit was covered by returns from the Central Bank’s investments in its bond and gold portfolios.

Oil revenues deposited at the Central Bank totaled 19.3 billion dollars, while foreign currency sales amounted to 26 billion dollars.
By the end of October, total foreign assets stood at 98.8 billion dollars, compared to 95.5 billion at the end of 2024.

Revenue from the fee imposed on foreign currency sales reached 19.5 billion dinars, while the balance of payments recorded a surplus of 1.7 billion dollars.

Spending abroad included:

  • Salaries of employees abroad: 287.6 million dollars
  • Students studying abroad: 120.2 million dollars
  • Medical treatment abroad: 87 million dollars
  • National Oil Corporation: 440.9 million dollars
  • Fuel imports: 2.6 billion dollars
  • Medical supply authority: 247.7 million dollars
  • Electricity sector: 592.6 million dollars
  • Housing projects: 241 million dollars
  • Transfers and credits to other entities: 931 million dollars

Bringing total expenditures through the Central Bank to 5.6 billion dollars, through commercial banks to 20.4 billion dollars, and total foreign currency uses to 26.1 billion dollars.

Additionally, 90.6 billion dinars in cash were distributed across branches of commercial banks throughout all Libyan cities during the first ten months of 2025.

The combined spending of the four councils — the House of Representatives, the State Council, the Government of National Unity (Cabinet of Ministers), and the Presidential Council — reached 3.9 billion dinars during the same period.

The statement also highlighted spending by key ministries, including:

  • Finance: 22.6 billion dinars
  • Oil and Gas: 22.2 billion dinars
  • Interior: 5.5 billion dinars
  • Defense: 3.5 billion dinars
  • Social Affairs: 13.9 billion dinars.

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Professor of Political Economy Mohamed Al-Barghouthi

Al-Barghouthi Writes About the Crises in the Central Bank

Professor of Political Economy Mohamed Al-Barghouthi wrote an article in which he stated:

“Hardly a day passes without discussion of the successive crises facing the Central Bank of Libya — some new, others long-standing. Yet, at the core of monetary policy, what truly matters to citizens and affects them most are two key crises: cash liquidity and the exchange rate.

The liquidity crisis is, at its core, the result of chronic accumulations stemming from structural imbalances in the monetary and financial cycle. However, the actual executive responsibility for managing it lies with the Central Bank of Libya, as it is the body responsible for balancing money supply and organizing the flow of liquidity within the banking system.

Therefore, addressing this crisis requires deep monetary and technical solutions, not just temporary measures or emotional reactions.

As for the exchange rate issue, its roots are inseparable from the expansionary fiscal policies of the two governments in the east and west. Both have continued deficit spending and increased public debt without real backing from revenues or production, thereby adding pressure on foreign currency and complicating the management of its demand.

Hence, no matter how precise or disciplined monetary policy becomes, it cannot by itself compensate for the imbalance in fiscal policy. Monetary stability requires coordination between both sides, not a mutual exchange of blame.

The situation became even more complicated when the Central Bank — whether with good intentions or under pressure — put itself in a difficult position by allowing optimistic expectations about a decline in the exchange rate at the start of October. These expectations were based on measures such as withdrawing the 20-dinar banknote, opening exchange offices, and reducing the foreign currency fee (tax) by 5% — limited regulatory steps that do not address the core of the supply-demand equation for foreign currency.

In truth, the Bank had relied on promises of reduced public spending and tighter fiscal control, along with the completion of existing development projects. However, these promises were never fulfilled, leaving the Bank facing a reality different from its forecasts — and paying the price for overconfidence in political assurances.

Today, the Central Bank must readjust its message and policies according to a more realistic, cautious, and transparent approach before public opinion. This requires calm, rational management and realistic expectation handling — not reactionary behavior or overly optimistic media discourse aimed at influencing exchange rate trends.

The real battle is not to win public opinion temporarily, but to gradually rebuild trust through credible steps and clear vision — a massive responsibility, yet not an impossible one, if the will and courage exist to tell the truth as it is.

Exclusive: Al-Ghweil: The Governor’s Statements Are a Wake-Up Call to the Dangers of Libya’s Dependence on Oil and the Need to Diversify Income Sources

Professor of Economics at Misrata University, Ali Al-Ghweil, told our source in an exclusive statement that the recent remarks by the Governor of the Central Bank of Libya clearly reflect the fragility of the Libyan economy and its near-total dependence on oil revenues. He pointed out that the Governor’s statements carry important implications, most notably that over 90% of state revenues come from this sector, covering salaries, subsidies, and operational expenses—all almost entirely funded by oil income.

Al-Ghweil added that oil price fluctuations pose a major risk to the economy, explaining that if the price of a barrel drops to around $52, it would be considered low compared to the state’s costs and general needs. The government usually requires a price between $70 and $80 per barrel to maintain budget balance, and any drop below that could lead to deficits in financing salaries and providing essential services.

He went on to say that these statements should serve as a wake-up call for decision-makers, emphasizing that the solution is not to wait for oil prices to rise but to implement serious economic reforms that include rationalizing spending, combating corruption, diversifying income sources, and building strong and stable financial institutions.

Regarding the proposal to establish a holding company for banks, Al-Ghweil explained that this has specific reasons and goals, the most important of which is restructuring the banking sector to enhance efficiency, achieve coordination and integration among banks instead of each operating in isolation, and improving supervision and governance through a central entity capable of enforcing stricter administrative and financial controls.

Exclusive: Al-Sanousi: “After all the negative remarks made by the Governor, is it conceivable that anyone would invest in a country that might not even be able to pay salaries?!”

Economic expert Mohamed Al-Sanousi stated in an exclusive comment to our source:
“The Central Bank Governor presented nothing new in his speech. Everyone knows that the Libyan economy has relied on oil for 60 years — we didn’t need a speech from the Governor to tell us that.”

He added:
“We are well aware of the political division, the existence of two governments, and the ongoing spending without an approved budget. If the Governor was unaware of these facts and only discovered them this week, that’s a disaster. But if he was aware of them, and all the positive news he shared in past weeks was intentionally published to mislead public opinion, then the disaster is even greater.”

Al-Sanousi continued:
“Moreover, we don’t know what data the Governor relied on when he claimed that the state would be unable to pay salaries if oil prices drop to $52 per barrel. Is that number based on a scientific study, or what exactly?”

He went on to say:
“As for his statement that the state needs $3 billion in revenue but currently only collects $1.5 billion, that situation requires three measures: first, rationalizing spending; second, increasing revenues; and third — which falls under the Central Bank’s authority — adjusting the exchange rate in a way that ensures at least a balance between income and expenditure, or at the very least minimizes the deficit in the balance of payments. It’s quite puzzling to hear this from the Governor, especially after the Central Bank had recently announced surpluses generated from investments in gold and deposits.”

Regarding the proposal to establish a holding company over the banks, Al-Sanousi commented:
“We don’t understand the reasoning behind this idea. After all the negative remarks made by the Governor, is it realistic to expect anyone to invest in a country that might not even be able to pay its employees? Why doesn’t the Central Bank instead focus on its core responsibilities rather than intervening in investment matters?”

He concluded:
“The Central Bank’s role should be to ensure monetary stability and create a sound environment that encourages investment and guarantees that investors won’t lose their capital due to misguided Central Bank decisions, as has happened in previous years. For the Central Bank to directly engage in investment — or to allow commercial banks to do so — would put depositors’ money at risk, especially in a country plagued by corruption and lacking transparency.”

Khaled Al-Zantouti: “The Central Bank and Sustainable Development — Caught Between Division, Regionalism, and the Prohibition of Interest!!”

The Financial Analyst Khaled Al-Zantouti wrote:

No one can deny the crucial role of central banks in promoting sustainable development within any economy. They drive the economic process through monetary stability and effective monetary policies. Unlike commercial banks, which seek positive returns through lending policies and profit-making between deposit costs and loan revenues, central banks aim to create financial stability that encourages investment through monetary policies that take into account all macroeconomic and microeconomic variables and their effects on credit and economic growth, as well as maintaining and growing the state’s reserves.

From here, I ask — innocently — has our Central Bank succeeded throughout the past decade in supporting sustainable development in Libya through effective monetary policies? The answer, perhaps, is no, no, no. But why not!?

The truth we must address with honesty and objectivity is that the Central Bank has, over the past years, been entangled in a closed loop of division, regionalism, and corruption. Even when some tried to reform (regardless of the previous administration, which I consider the missing link between those loops), it failed to be independent in its decision-making — dominated by individualism and the absence of an effective board of directors. This left it stumbling between terrifying cycles of division, corruption, and a struggle over the dollar. Unfortunately, to preserve positions, alliances were formed with one side after another, until interests clashed — and the consequences followed.

Another major issue that shackled and paralyzed all the Central Bank’s functions is the prohibition of interest and the absence of an alternative. The problem is that all monetary policies, without exception, rely on a key variable — the interest rate. When this tool is completely disabled, and no substitute exists, the Central Bank becomes unable to adopt any monetary policy. Through the interest rate (or its alternative, if any), inflation is controlled, purchasing power is managed, investment opportunities are opened, productive employment is stimulated, and economic development is enhanced, among other things.

Neither the Central Bank nor anyone else has managed to develop a viable alternative to the interest rate, except for some so-called “Islamic banks” offering limited products that have not contributed at all to increasing developmental investment — rather, they exploited ordinary citizens with costs surpassing all prevailing “interest” rates in comparable markets!

Here, I am not discussing the usurious nature of interest, as this is a subject of disagreement among scholars and Islamic academic institutions. However, I must note that usury (in its linguistic and terminological sense, usury) is prohibited in all cultures and religions — from Hammurabi’s Code to current U.S. law — and, most importantly, by our Islamic faith, which absolutely forbids usury. That is beyond dispute. The real discussion should center on whether interest and its economic and financial components fall under the definition of riba. This requires a religious and economic discussion governed by the principles of the Holy Qur’an and the essence of our timeless faith, led by our respected scholars and specialized academic institutions.

The loss of this policy tool and the absence of alternatives have forced our Central Bank to focus on money supply, monetary mass, and printing money to address short-term liquidity shortages imposed by the ongoing division and conflict. This has burdened citizens, disrupted livelihoods, led to the withdrawal and reissuance of currency amid accusations of forgery, and created a liquidity crisis affecting everyone.

I do not believe that, under such circumstances, even the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors and Chairman Jerome Powell could operate effectively — so imagine our own situation. May God help them.

The Central Bank’s management history often shows tendencies toward temporary, patchwork solutions to deal with sudden variables imposed by certain interest groups — such as printing currency, spending reserves, and withdrawing or replacing some issues. Some of these short-term solutions have created severe problems directly and indirectly affecting citizens — like liquidity shortages and public debt.

Even when the new administration of the Central Bank attempted to address structural problems such as unifying the budget and controlling expenditure, unfortunately, it found no receptive ears among those with legislative and executive power — everyone played to their own tune.

Even the recent proposal to establish a holding company funded by the Central Bank’s reserves (as reported by media) — with due respect to its proponents — also carries risks. It could violate international standards governing the role of central banks, which prohibit them from forming holding or other companies, or acquiring significant shares. Moreover, it contradicts the global rules for investing state reserves — which emphasize low-risk, sovereign, high-quality, investment-grade assets. Most international standards prohibit central banks from owning commercial banks, based on the principle of maintaining full independence. Unfortunately, our Central Bank clearly violates this through its ownership of major and minor shares in Libya’s largest commercial banks — which completely negates its supervisory independence, since one cannot both own and regulate simultaneously.

In light of the above, I hope and wish that the Central Bank pays attention to the following recommendations:

  • Ensure the absolute independence of the Central Bank in performing its functions, foremost among them developing monetary policy.
  • The Central Bank must not be a party to this destructive division in any form.
  • The Central Bank is not subordinate to any legislative or executive authority technically; it is only obliged to provide consultation and technical reports to the government and the House of Representatives and is accountable solely to the legislative body.
  • The Central Bank’s Board of Directors must have full immunity during its legal term and may not be dismissed by any party except through a final court ruling.
  • The Central Bank should deal with only one unified budget, approved and coordinated with the legislative authority.
  • Emphasize the importance of coordination between the Central Bank and executive authorities regarding monetary policies and their alignment with fiscal and trade policies.
  • The Central Bank must determine the fair exchange rate of the Libyan dinar, be capable of defending it at any time, and adjust it according to the country’s evolving economic indicators.
  • It is necessary to regulate and monitor all foreign currency transactions — including letters of credit and personal transfers — ensuring all imported goods are delivered to Libya at their true prices, within an officially approved goods budget.
  • Commercial banks must contribute to developmental lending under approved risk matrices, guarantees, and policies, coordinated with the executive authority to ensure proper conditions for credit — such as real estate registration and specialized, fast-track financial courts.
  • The issue of interest or its alternative must be discussed seriously by scholars of Islamic finance and economists, as credit cannot exist without cost or return.
  • All commercial banks, public and private, must clearly define their identity — whether traditional or otherwise.
  • Establish a holding company owned by the public treasury to which all Central Bank shares in commercial banks are transferred, thereby separating ownership from supervision. Later, the company’s shares could be offered for public subscription and sold to citizens and the private sector at fair prices.

If these recommendations are not fulfilled, those concerned should resign honorably, rather than submit to the forces of division, regionalism, and corruption — or to any factor that compromises the independence of the Central Bank in any way.

Reda Gergab to Sada: “The Central Bank’s Board of Directors Works in Silence, and Any Success or Failure Is Entirely Attributed to It”

Our source directly contacted Reda Gergab, member of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Libya, who denied the news circulating about consultations to appoint him as a successor to Governor Naji Issa, confirming that the news is completely false.

Gergab emphasized the unity of the Central Bank, stating that the Board of Directors operates cohesively and has full confidence in the Governor. He pointed out that the current phase is challenging and requires vigilance against false news, stressing that the Board works in silence, and that any success or failure is attributed to the Board as a whole.