The Arabic Independent newspaper reported on Thursday that Libya’s oil industry in 2025 shows promising opportunities despite ongoing threats in a country torn by political disputes and divided between two governments in the east and west. Libya’s crude oil production in 2024 exceeded its target by more than 17,000 barrels, reflecting the sector’s recovery.
According to the Independent, official data from the National Oil Corporation and the Central Bank of Libya indicate that 2024 concluded with crude oil production reaching 1.417 million barrels per day and 1.469 million barrels including condensates. The country’s oil sales and royalties last year amounted to about 90 billion dinars ($18.16 billion), despite a $6.4 billion decline compared to 2023 due to production shutdowns, lower average oil prices, and increased fuel imports.
Oilfield Blockades:
The newspaper noted that while last year saw tangible progress in production after months of political blockades on oilfields, clashes in Al-Zawiya west of Tripoli near the end of 2024 and the subsequent declaration of force majeure following damage to the country’s largest refinery have raised new challenges.
Despite this, the outlook for growth in Libya’s oil industry appears favorable. The NOC plans to launch a licensing round for 22 areas in the first quarter of 2025, aiming to attract new investments in onshore and offshore exploration. The target is to boost production to 2 million barrels per day, with major international oil companies such as Italy’s Eni, Spain’s Repsol, the UK’s BP, and Algeria’s Sonatrach resuming exploration after a decade-long hiatus.
Return of International Oil Companies:
Spain’s Repsol has joined the growing list of international oil producers returning to Libya after a ten-year absence. The company recently drilled its first exploratory well after receiving security assurances from the Libyan National Army and the NOC.
Libya’s Political Struggles:
The newspaper highlighted that, despite Libya’s position as the holder of Africa’s largest proven oil reserves—estimated at 48 billion barrels by the U.S. Energy Information Administration—its oil production has faced years of volatility due to political instability. Achieving the NOC’s target of 2 million barrels per day in 2025 depends on insulating the sector from Libya’s political conflicts.
Libyan oil analyst Mohamed El-Shahati told the Independent that achieving 1.4 million barrels per day by the end of 2024 is commendable and required significant effort. However, he warned that delays in sector investments could slow production growth in the coming years, jeopardizing future goals. Shahati expressed hope that production might reach an average of 1.6 million barrels per day by the end of 2025, despite challenges such as declining oil prices, forecasted at an average of $72 per barrel, and a lack of financial liquidity this year.
Highest Growth Rate in the Arab World:
In an interview with the Independent, Osama Mansour, the Islamic Development Bank Group’s representative in Libya, stated that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Libya’s economy to grow by 13.7% in 2025, marking the highest growth rate among Arab countries. This growth is driven primarily by a rebound in the oil sector.
Mansour pointed out that Libya possesses the largest proven oil reserves in Africa, along with significant natural gas reserves, making it a key player in the global energy market. However, he cautioned that the heavy reliance on oil, accounting for about 95% of exports and 60% of GDP, poses a major challenge to the country’s economy.
