{"id":255283,"date":"2025-10-22T13:40:17","date_gmt":"2025-10-22T11:40:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sada.ly\/en\/?p=255283"},"modified":"2025-10-22T13:40:17","modified_gmt":"2025-10-22T11:40:17","slug":"businessman-hosni-bey-explains-the-dynamics-of-the-libyan-economy-and-the-causes-of-the-cash-shortage-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sada.ly\/en\/businessman-hosni-bey-explains-the-dynamics-of-the-libyan-economy-and-the-causes-of-the-cash-shortage-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Businessman Hosni Bey Explains the Dynamics of the Libyan Economy and the Causes of the Cash Shortage Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Libyan businessman <strong>Hosni Bey<\/strong> explained the dynamics of Libya\u2019s economy and the reasons behind the liquidity crisis during a session of the <em>Economic Salon<\/em> \u2014 a forum that brings together leading economists, banking professionals, financial brokerage managers, businesspeople, and young entrepreneurs, alongside members of Libya\u2019s sovereign institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cPersonally, I do not believe in opposing market mechanisms, even if the market is not perfect.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He continued:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIn my view, electronic payments can help ease the problem, but economic, monetary, and fiscal dynamics in any country are deeply interconnected.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>General Framework in Libya<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Around <strong>93% of public spending in Libya<\/strong> must be covered by revenues in <strong>U.S. dollars<\/strong>, whether from <strong>oil exports<\/strong> or <strong>foreign reserves<\/strong>.<br>This means the <strong>exchange rate<\/strong> must be set in a way that generates a sufficient amount of <strong>Libyan dinars (LD)<\/strong> to meet the government\u2019s financial needs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Interrelated Issues<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The liquidity shortage, dinar devaluation, and currency speculation are all <strong>tightly linked<\/strong> and <strong>mutually reinforcing<\/strong> challenges:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Cash shortage<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Devaluation of the dinar<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Arbitrage between cash, checks, and the U.S. dollar<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Each reflects <strong>structural imbalances<\/strong> in the monetary base and liquidity management within the financial system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Liquidity Crisis: A Structural Problem<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Libya\u2019s liquidity crisis is <strong>structural<\/strong>, not temporary, and stems from how reserves and monetary policies are managed by the <strong>Central Bank of Libya (CBL)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key facts:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Regulations require <strong>mandatory reserves<\/strong> equal to <strong>30% of total deposits<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Excess reserves<\/strong> in cash \u2014 currently over <strong>20% of total deposits<\/strong> \u2014 have been <strong>withdrawn by the CBL<\/strong> from commercial banks.<br>This constitutes a form of <strong>quantitative tightening (QT)<\/strong>, the opposite of <strong>quantitative easing (QE)<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Technically, to alleviate the shortage of cash in circulation, the CBL should <strong>release these excess reserves<\/strong> and replace them with <strong>newly printed currency<\/strong> to restore public confidence in banks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>CBL\u2019s Measures and Statements<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to CBL data:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The CBL expects the liquidity crisis to ease as <strong>14 billion LYD<\/strong> in <strong>newly printed banknotes<\/strong> are distributed before the end of the year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The issue is expected to be <strong>fully resolved by 2026<\/strong>, with an additional <strong>20 billion LYD<\/strong> in new notes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Current <strong>excess reserves<\/strong> are estimated at <strong>around 20 billion LYD<\/strong>, highlighting the extent of monetary tightening already in effect.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Exchange Rate and Public Spending<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When the exchange rate fails to generate enough dinars to cover public spending:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The government resorts to <strong>monetary financing<\/strong> of the deficit through the CBL.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This increases the <strong>money supply (M3)<\/strong> and widens the gap between the <strong>official exchange rate<\/strong> and the <strong>parallel market rate<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The widening gap fuels <strong>currency speculation<\/strong> and <strong>demand for dollars<\/strong>, worsening the crisis.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This gap not only <strong>undermines currency stability<\/strong> but also <strong>encourages inflation<\/strong> and <strong>erodes fiscal discipline<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Speculation and Price Differentials<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The rise in <strong>arbitrage between cash, checks, and the dollar<\/strong> is a direct result of monetary policy distortions \u2014 and also deepens them.<br>When the gap between official and parallel rates widens:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Speculative trading intensifies.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cash becomes <strong>more valuable<\/strong> than checks or bank balances due to its <strong>scarcity<\/strong> and <strong>public trust<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hosni Bey added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cYou cannot have both currency stability and deficit financing while maintaining reserves and a fixed exchange rate. That\u2019s a fantasy \u2014 one that has failed since 1982. It\u2019s a lie.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Certificates of Deposit and Rebalancing<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>CBL<\/strong> previously used <strong>Certificates of Deposit (CDs)<\/strong> to address imbalances in the monetary base by shifting funds from:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Current deposits (M1)<\/strong> to <strong>savings or term deposits (M2, M3)<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The aim was to <strong>absorb excess liquidity<\/strong> and convert it into longer-term savings instruments, reducing pressure on the cash market.<br>However, the success of this approach <strong>depends heavily on restoring trust<\/strong> between banks and the public \u2014 and the <strong>first key to trust is liquidity availability<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Core Principles of Monetary Policy<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>Central Bank of Libya<\/strong> must <strong>completely refrain from financing fiscal deficits<\/strong>, regardless of whether a formal budget exists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Monetary financing of deficits leads to:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Expansion of the money supply<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Widening of the gap between official and parallel exchange rates<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Worsening of liquidity shortages when the CBL borrows from commercial banks<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>wider the gap<\/strong>, the more speculation grows and <strong>pressure on the exchange rate intensifies<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Legal Framework (Libyan Law)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to Libyan legislation:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The <strong>CBL cannot finance the government<\/strong> by more than <strong>20% of the annual budget<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This financing must be <strong>repaid within the following fiscal year<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It <strong>cannot be repeated<\/strong> more than once.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This provision aims to <strong>prevent chronic reliance on monetary deficit financing<\/strong> and to <strong>protect the stability of the monetary base<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Rebalancing and Reforming the Monetary Base<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Achieving <strong>monetary stability<\/strong> would lead to:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Eliminating the difference between <strong>cash and checks<\/strong>, ending speculative arbitrage.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Gradually <strong>releasing excess reserves<\/strong> by issuing new currency to ease the liquidity shortage.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Stabilizing the exchange rate<\/strong> so that public spending can be covered in dinars without resorting to inflationary financing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Restoring trust<\/strong> between the banking system and the public through transparent and reliable financial tools.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stabilizing Libya\u2019s financial and monetary systems requires:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Firm adherence to the <strong>principle of no monetary deficit financing<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Aligning the <strong>exchange rate<\/strong> with the reality of public spending.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Rebuilding trust<\/strong> in the banking sector through clear and transparent policies.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Restructuring liquidity<\/strong> among cash, deposits, and foreign currencies.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Reinforcing <strong>fiscal discipline<\/strong>, ensuring that dollar revenues cover spending without depleting reserves.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Libyan businessman Hosni Bey explained the dynamics of Libya\u2019s economy and the reasons behind the liquidity crisis during a session of the Economic Salon \u2014 a forum that brings together leading economists, banking professionals, financial brokerage managers, businesspeople, and young entrepreneurs, alongside members of Libya\u2019s sovereign institutions. He said: \u201cPersonally, I do not believe in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":255284,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[636,613],"class_list":["post-255283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-economy","tag-libya"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Businessman Hosni Bey Explains the Dynamics of the Libyan Economy and the Causes of the Cash Shortage Crisis - Sada Newspaper<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sada.ly\/en\/businessman-hosni-bey-explains-the-dynamics-of-the-libyan-economy-and-the-causes-of-the-cash-shortage-crisis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Businessman Hosni Bey Explains the Dynamics of the Libyan Economy and the Causes of the Cash Shortage Crisis - Sada Newspaper\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Libyan businessman Hosni Bey explained the dynamics of Libya\u2019s economy and the reasons behind the liquidity crisis during a session of the Economic Salon \u2014 a forum that brings together leading economists, banking professionals, financial brokerage managers, businesspeople, and young entrepreneurs, alongside members of Libya\u2019s sovereign institutions. 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