{"id":257950,"date":"2026-08-13T02:53:32","date_gmt":"2026-08-13T00:53:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sada.ly\/en\/?p=257950"},"modified":"2026-08-14T02:54:58","modified_gmt":"2026-08-14T00:54:58","slug":"al-bouri-writes-libyas-crisis-today-is-less-about-a-dollar-shortage-than-about-the-management-of-public-resources-confidence-and-fiscal-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sada.ly\/en\/al-bouri-writes-libyas-crisis-today-is-less-about-a-dollar-shortage-than-about-the-management-of-public-resources-confidence-and-fiscal-policy\/","title":{"rendered":"Al-Bouri Writes: Libya\u2019s Crisis Today Is Less About a Dollar Shortage Than About the Management of Public Resources, Confidence, and Fiscal Policy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Banking expert \u201cNoman Al-Bouri\u201d wrote in a post:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Libya\u2019s crisis today is not so much a shortage of dollars as it is a crisis of public resource management, confidence, and fiscal policy. This is very important because injecting more dollars into the market or devaluing the dinar again will not address the root of the problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The International Monetary Fund, in its assessment of Libya in April 2026, reached a similar conclusion: the large fiscal deficit is putting pressure on the exchange rate, foreign reserves, and inflation, and central bank interventions alone cannot be a permanent solution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What do we actually need?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>1. Unify fiscal policy before anything else<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There must be one Libyan budget, one oil revenue stream, and one government spending framework, all subject to oversight and transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Central Bank cannot defend the dinar while public spending continues to expand without a clear ceiling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>2. Stop deficit financing (money creation)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is a fundamental point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If the government spends far more than the state can sustain through real revenues, the pressure will ultimately move through:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Dinar \u2192 Dollar \u2192 Prices \u2192 Citizens\u2019 purchasing power.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Therefore, addressing the exchange rate begins with fiscal policy, not just the foreign exchange market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>3. Reform the subsidy system, rather than simply eliminating it<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Energy subsidies consume enormous resources. The IMF estimates that energy subsidies account for around 20% of GDP, while the wage bill amounts to approximately 30% of GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The solution is not to suddenly raise prices for citizens, but rather to:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Convert commodity subsidies into direct and targeted cash support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Protect low-income groups.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Reduce waste and smuggling.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Redirect funds toward investment and public services.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>4. Rebuild confidence in the dinar<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Following the 14.7% devaluation of the dinar in January 2026, bringing it to 6.3759 dinars per dollar, it has become clear that devaluation alone is not enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What is needed is a gradual move toward a unified and sustainable exchange rate, rather than maintaining a large gap between the official and parallel market rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But I want to emphasize an important point:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Exchange-rate unification is a result of reform, not a substitute for reform.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>5. Manage oil revenues in a completely different way and restructure the oil sector<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Libya currently has a rare opportunity: higher oil production and relatively high oil prices. But if we spend all the additional revenue, we will return to the same crisis when prices fall. The IMF specifically warns against using exceptional oil revenues to increase current spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I propose dividing oil revenues into three channels:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Necessary current spending + a stabilization\/reserve fund + development investment.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Exceptional oil revenues must not be used to increase salaries and permanent expenditures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>6. Transform oil from a source of government financing into an engine of the economy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here, I believe Libya needs to completely change its economic philosophy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Instead of asking:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cHow many billions of dollars will we receive from oil this year?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We should ask:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cHow can we invest every oil dollar so that it generates an additional dollar outside the oil sector?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investment should be directed toward sectors such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Electricity and renewable energy<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Infrastructure<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Agriculture and food industries<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Logistics and ports<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tourism<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Telecommunications and technology<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Financial services and fintech<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Industries linked to oil and gas<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is consistent with the World Bank\u2019s recommendations on reducing the dominance of the state, creating a better environment for the private sector, and diversifying the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>7. Reform the banking sector and activate the role of the private sector<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A real economy cannot be built if banks remain merely channels for paying salaries and financing consumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We need:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Banks that finance companies and productive projects.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is where fintech, digital payments, credit scoring, and credit registries come into play, allowing the private sector to obtain financing based on its activities and cash flows rather than merely on real estate collateral.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>8. Central bank independence<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This has become even more important now, particularly following the resignation of Governor Naji Issa, which was announced on August 10, 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Central Bank must be:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A professional and independent institution, not a tool for financing the government or a party to the political conflict.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Its core mandate should be clearly defined:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Price stability + protection of reserves + soundness of the banking sector + independent monetary policy.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Libya does not need merely an \u201ceconomic reform.\u201d Libya needs a <strong>new economic social contract between the state and the citizen.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The old contract is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Oil \u2192 State \u2192 Salaries and subsidies \u2192 Consumption \u2192 Imports.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This model has reached its limits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The new model should be:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Oil \u2192 Fiscal stability and investment \u2192 Private sector \u2192 Production and exports \u2192 Jobs \u2192 A diversified economy.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Most importantly, I do not believe the solution is to devalue the dinar for a third time and then wait for the economy to improve. If the size of government spending and the way oil, subsidies, and banks are managed do not change, any new devaluation will merely postpone the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Banking expert \u201cNoman Al-Bouri\u201d wrote in a post: Libya\u2019s crisis today is not so much a shortage of dollars as it is a crisis of public resource management, confidence, and fiscal policy. This is very important because injecting more dollars into the market or devaluing the dinar again will not address the root of the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":257951,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[613],"class_list":["post-257950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-libya"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Al-Bouri Writes: Libya\u2019s Crisis Today Is Less About a Dollar Shortage Than About the Management of Public Resources, Confidence, and Fiscal Policy - Sada Newspaper<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sada.ly\/en\/al-bouri-writes-libyas-crisis-today-is-less-about-a-dollar-shortage-than-about-the-management-of-public-resources-confidence-and-fiscal-policy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Al-Bouri Writes: Libya\u2019s Crisis Today Is Less About a Dollar Shortage Than About the Management of Public Resources, Confidence, and Fiscal Policy - Sada Newspaper\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Banking expert \u201cNoman Al-Bouri\u201d wrote in a post: Libya\u2019s crisis today is not so much a shortage of dollars as it is a crisis of public resource management, confidence, and fiscal policy. 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