{"id":258434,"date":"2026-09-10T23:37:26","date_gmt":"2026-09-10T21:37:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sada.ly\/en\/?p=258434"},"modified":"2026-09-14T23:44:19","modified_gmt":"2026-09-14T21:44:19","slug":"al-shalawi-between-oil-figures-and-central-bank-figures-where-does-the-picture-of-libyas-public-finances-become-complete","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sada.ly\/en\/al-shalawi-between-oil-figures-and-central-bank-figures-where-does-the-picture-of-libyas-public-finances-become-complete\/","title":{"rendered":"Al-Shalawi: &#8220;Between Oil Figures and Central Bank Figures\u2026 Where Does the Picture of Libya\u2019s Public Finances Become Complete?&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Written by oil and economic expert Abdelmonsef Al-Shalawi<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A reading of the January\u2013August 2026 data: Transparency matters, but the financial picture remains incomplete without the missing link<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When official figures are published, their real value does not lie solely in the size of the figure itself, but in our ability to understand what lies behind it: Where did it come from? When was it realized? Where was it deposited? How was it transferred? What was spent from it? And on which items?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From this perspective, the data published by public institutions are not merely financial tables, but pieces of a single economic picture that should ultimately come together before citizens, decision-makers, and experts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this context, the Central Bank of Libya\u2019s statement on revenues and expenditures through August 31, 2026, comes alongside the monthly data that the National Oil Corporation continues to publish on production, revenues, and transfers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A professional reading of these data should not begin with the question, \u201cWhich figure is correct?\u201d but rather with the more important question:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>How can we connect the figures issued by different institutions within a single financial system that makes the movement of public funds traceable from source to destination?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The National Oil Corporation\u2026 Disclosure of the Productive Sector<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is fair to say that the National Oil Corporation has made significant progress recently in publishing data related to production and revenues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Corporation regularly publishes summaries covering crude oil production, the state\u2019s share, partners\u2019 share, quantities available for export, refining quantities, oil and gas uses, as well as revenues collected, transfers, and the budget received.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In its August 2026 data, for example, the Corporation announced production of more than 43.3 million barrels of crude oil. It also announced the transfer of approximately $2.555 billion to the sovereign account, in addition to royalties and concession contract taxes, while explaining the mechanism for handling fuel supply credits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This disclosure practice deserves recognition because it provides economic and oil-sector observers with important primary material for understanding the sector\u2019s performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The publication of data is also not limited to revenues, but extends to natural gas and the quantities delivered to various sectors, which is important when assessing the Libyan energy economy as a whole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">But the Oil Figure Is Not the Final Financial Figure<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is where I believe a point worthy of further calm discussion begins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The revenue announced by the National Oil Corporation and the revenue appearing in the Central Bank of Libya\u2019s data are not necessarily the same figure at the same time or according to the same accounting basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Corporation deals with production, sales, collection, transfers, and reconciliations, while the Central Bank of Libya presents revenues and expenditures from the perspective of flows entering public accounts and what is recorded and spent within the financial system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Therefore, comparing two figures from different sources without knowing the accounting date of each figure, the nature of the revenue, the collection mechanism, the reconciliation process, and the entity through which the financial flow passed may lead to hasty conclusions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Corporation had previously explained, in one of its statements, that revenues collected in February represented crude oil sales for the month of January. It also explained the mechanism for reserving funds to cover part of the cost of fuel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These details are not marginal; they are at the heart of understanding the differences between the figures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What Does the Central Bank of Libya\u2019s Statement Say?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Central Bank of Libya\u2019s statement through August 31 provides an important picture of the revenue and expenditure side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Total revenues amounted to approximately LYD 98.98 billion, including around LYD 80.8 billion in oil sales revenues and LYD 15.3 billion in oil royalties, while other revenues from taxes, customs, telecommunications, and other sources were significantly lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Recorded expenditure amounted to approximately LYD 68.61 billion, distributed mainly among salaries, operational expenditures, subsidies, and development. The statement itself indicates that the figure for the first expenditure category does not include August salaries, an important detail when reading total expenditure and avoiding treating it as a final, closed figure for the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These figures alone reveal a fundamental economic reality:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Libya\u2019s public finances remain highly dependent on oil revenues, while the largest share of public expenditure continues to go toward current, social, and operational items rather than investment and development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is not an observation about any particular institution, but rather an issue concerning the structure of the economy and public finances as a whole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Corporation Is Not the Entire Public Finance System<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From here, I believe it is important to distinguish between institutions and their respective roles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The National Oil Corporation is the technical and commercial arm of the oil sector. It is responsible for production, development, exports, and managing oil activities within its mandate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The management of public finances, setting priorities, the budget, public expenditure, reconciliations, and government accounts, on the other hand, constitute a broader system than the Corporation itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Therefore, holding a single institution responsible for explaining the entire movement of public funds may not be institutionally accurate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time, calls for greater disclosure by the Corporation remain legitimate, as do calls for more detail from the Central Bank of Libya. But the greater need is for these disclosures to come together within a single system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Missing Link We Need: The Ministry of Finance<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This brings me to the most important point in this analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For citizens and experts to understand what happened to public funds during the first eight months of 2026, we need an integrated view from the Ministry of Finance that connects revenues appearing in government accounts with actual expenditure, clarifies the basis of recording and reconciliation and the timing of revenue recognition, and links appropriations to actual expenditures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Central Bank of Libya\u2019s statement provides an important part of the picture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The National Oil Corporation\u2019s reports provide another important part.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But without detailed and systematic financial data from the Ministry of Finance, a gap remains between the oil figure and the final financial figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This gap is not necessarily evidence of a problem or violation; rather, it is an information gap that should be closed if we want to achieve the highest levels of financial transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">True transparency does not mean that every institution simply publishes its figures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">More mature transparency means that a researcher can take a figure from one institution, trace it through the next institution, and determine where it ended up, how it was reconciled, and under which item it appeared in government accounts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What We Need Is Not More Figures\u2026 But More Connections<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Perhaps the most useful step now is to move from the concept of \u201cindividual disclosure\u201d to the concept of \u201cintegrated disclosure.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In other words, we need a unified table or periodic statement through which an observer can follow the following path:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Oil production<br>\u2193<br>Sales and exports<br>\u2193<br>Revenues collected<br>\u2193<br>Reconciliations and deductions<br>\u2193<br>Transfer to sovereign accounts<br>\u2193<br>Revenue recorded in public finances<br>\u2193<br>Appropriations<br>\u2193<br>Actual expenditure<br>\u2193<br>Cumulative balance or deficit<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Only then can we move from simply reading figures to reading the economy itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What Do the Eight-Month Figures Tell Us?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First, they tell us that the oil sector remains the backbone of public revenues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Second, they tell us that the volume of current and social expenditure remains large compared with development expenditure. The Central Bank\u2019s statement shows that expenditure under the third category, namely development, amounted to only around LYD 912.8 million, compared with LYD 46.9 billion for the first category and LYD 11.8 billion for subsidies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These ratios deserve an independent economic discussion because they concern not only the size of expenditure, but also the nature of expenditure and its ability to create added value, employment opportunities, and diversify sources of income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The economy\u2019s dependence on oil also means that any improvement in production or prices has a direct impact on public finances. Conversely, any decline in production, prices, or exports quickly creates pressure on the budget, exchange rate, and public expenditure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fairness to the Corporation Does Not Mean Exempting It from Accountability<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is important here to emphasize a point that I consider essential in any professional discussion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Presenting the National Oil Corporation in a positive light does not mean exempting it from criticism or oversight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the contrary, the best protection for the National Oil Corporation is greater professional transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The more detailed, consistent, and comparable the data become, the easier it is to defend the Corporation when the figures are in its favor, and the easier it is to identify any shortcomings when problems do exist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is the difference between institutional defense and personal defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We do not need to defend individuals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We need to defend the institution, the sector, public funds, and the rules of governance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The data published by the National Oil Corporation and the Central Bank of Libya for the period from January to August 2026 provide highly important material for understanding the Libyan economy. At the same time, however, they reveal the need for a higher level of integration in financial disclosure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The National Oil Corporation publishes an important part of the oil story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Central Bank of Libya publishes an important part of the revenue and expenditure story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the complete story requires the financial link that connects the two systematically. This highlights the importance of the regular publication of detailed financial data by the Ministry of Finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Therefore, the question I consider more important than \u201cWhere did the money go?\u201d is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>How did the money move in the first place, from the moment the barrel was produced to the moment the revenue was recorded and spent?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When we can answer this question using interconnected figures, clear dates, and disclosed reconciliations, we will have moved from formal transparency to auditable transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And this is the level Libya needs today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Not more arguments over the figures\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But more connections between the figures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Figures separated from their context may confuse public opinion. But when they are connected to one another, they become a tool for understanding the economy, evaluating performance, and protecting public funds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Written by oil and economic expert Abdelmonsef Al-Shalawi A reading of the January\u2013August 2026 data: Transparency matters, but the financial picture remains incomplete without the missing link When official figures are published, their real value does not lie solely in the size of the figure itself, but in our ability to understand what lies behind [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":258435,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[683],"tags":[628,613],"class_list":["post-258434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-articles","tag-central-bank","tag-libya"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - 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