Written by oil and economic expert Abdelmonsef Al-Shalawi<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With all due respect to Dr. Attia Al-Fitouri, the question he raised about the decline in oil revenues during the first eight months of 2026, despite higher oil prices, is an important one and deserves a clear answer supported by figures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, I believe the key to the answer lies in a fundamental accounting and technical question: Do the two figures we are comparing represent the same thing and use the same accounting basis?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Looking at the attached Central Bank of Libya data, we find that total oil revenues and royalties during January\u2013August 2025 amounted to approximately:<\/p>\n\n\n\n $15.837 billion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n While during the same period in 2026, they amounted to approximately:<\/p>\n\n\n\n $15.190 billion.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n A superficial comparison therefore gives the impression of a decline of around $647 million<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And this is where the puzzle begins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n How can revenues have declined when oil prices during much of 2026 were clearly higher than their 2025 levels?<\/p>\n\n\n\n In my view, the answer is not necessarily that oil revenues have \u201cdisappeared,\u201d but rather that the way oil revenues and fuel financing are processed has changed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The evidence is found in the two tables themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the 2025 statement, a separate item for fuel appears under foreign-currency uses, amounting to:<\/p>\n\n\n\n $2.057 billion.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n In other words, the value of oil sales appeared under revenues, while fuel subsequently appeared under foreign-currency uses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In 2026, however, we find that the fuel item under the Central Bank of Libya\u2019s foreign-currency uses has become:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Zero.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n This figure does not mean that Libya has stopped paying for fuel. Rather, it means that the method of financing it has changed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Here comes the crucial information from the Audit Bureau\u2019s report: the Bureau indicated that the barter system was discontinued on February 12, 2026, and that the financing of fuel imports was shifted to letters of credit, with their costs covered from oil revenues. The total cost of fuel supplies during January\u2013July 2026 amounted to approximately $6.122 billion<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is a key point in explaining the difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If the value of fuel is deducted from oil revenues before the net proceeds reach the Central Bank of Libya, then comparing the figure that reached the Central Bank in 2026 with the figure that reached it in 2025, before fuel appeared on the uses side, would mean comparing two figures that are not accounting-wise comparable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Therefore, the question:<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWhere did the rest of the oil revenues go?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n may be more accurately phrased as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWhat was the total value of the oil exported, how much of it was allocated to fuel, how much was actually collected, and how much was ultimately transferred to the Central Bank of Libya?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n These are four different figures, not one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is where the Audit Bureau\u2019s data become important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n During the first seven months of 2026, the Audit Bureau\u2019s report showed that the total value of oil exports amounted to approximately $18.46 billion<\/strong>, while the amount collected by the Libyan Foreign Bank was approximately $15.789 billion<\/strong>, and the amounts transferred to the Central Bank of Libya amounted to approximately $11.16 billion<\/strong>. Meanwhile, fuel costs amounted to approximately $6.122 billion<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n These figures alone are sufficient to show that the figure appearing in the Central Bank of Libya\u2019s accounts is not necessarily the same as the value of the oil that was exported and sold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Here, I find myself leaning toward the core of the analysis that says the decline in the figure shown in the Central Bank\u2019s statement does not necessarily mean that actual oil revenues declined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, I would caution against immediately concluding that the net increase amounted to \u201c$3 billion\u201d<\/strong> without conducting a complete reconciliation. This requires harmonizing export, collection, fuel, timing, and reconciliation data across the various institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nevertheless, there is a clear conclusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If we compare the figures without taking into account the change in the accounting treatment, we will arrive at a conclusion that appears mathematically logical but may be economically incorrect:<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2025 = $15.84 billion This conclusion is not sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The correct figure we should be looking for is not simply \u201cHow much entered the Central Bank\u2019s account?\u201d<\/strong> but rather \u201cHow much did oil generate in total, what was deducted from it before the transfer, and what actually reached the government\u2019s accounts?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Indeed, the 2026 data themselves reveal that fuel costs have become an important part of this equation, while they did not appear in the same manner in the Central Bank\u2019s foreign-currency uses table in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Therefore, in my view, we currently do not have sufficient evidence to say that oil revenues declined despite higher prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It would be more accurate to say:<\/p>\n\n\n\n The figure shown in the Central Bank of Libya\u2019s statement declined slightly, but the method of recording and transferring oil revenues changed. Therefore, this decline cannot automatically be considered evidence that oil revenues themselves declined.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n A definitive conclusion requires a single, simple, and clear table from the relevant authorities showing:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Total value of exported oil Only then can we definitively answer the question raised by Dr. Al-Fitouri:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Where did the rest of the oil revenues go?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Based on the figures currently available, however, there is a strong, evidence-based explanation suggesting that a significant portion of the apparent difference does not represent missing revenues, but rather revenues whose accounting and financial path changed as a result of the change in the mechanism used to finance fuel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This does not mean that everything is clear or that the data do not require further disclosure. On the contrary, I believe what is needed now is reconciliation between the National Oil Corporation, the Libyan Foreign Bank, the Central Bank of Libya, the Ministry of Finance, and the Audit Bureau.<\/p>\n\n\n\n True transparency does not lie in publishing a single figure. It lies in being able to trace the oil dollar from the moment the barrel is exported to the moment its net proceeds reach the government\u2019s account.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And it is precisely here that I believe the answer to the \u201crevenue puzzle\u201d<\/strong> becomes a matter of accounting rather than speculation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Written by oil and economic expert Abdelmonsef Al-Shalawi With all due respect to Dr. Attia Al-Fitouri, the question he raised about the decline in oil revenues during the first eight months of 2026, despite higher oil prices, is an important one and deserves a clear answer supported by figures. However, I believe the key to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":258441,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[683],"tags":[613,614],"class_list":["post-258440","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-articles","tag-libya","tag-oil"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
2026 = $15.19 billion
Therefore, revenues declined.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2212 Fuel costs
\u2212 Any other reconciliations or deductions
= Net oil revenues transferred to the Central Bank of Libya.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n