Economic expert Mohammed Al-Sanussi provided exclusive comments to our source regarding the Libyan dinar’s exchange rate in 2025. He stated, “In Libya, predicting the exchange rate in the parallel market is nearly impossible as the market is highly volatile and subject to significant changes due to any decision or even rumors.”
He added, “However, with the current situation, an increase in the exchange rate is more likely than a decrease, for several reasons:
- Central Bank Governance Issues: Despite appointing a new governor and establishing a board of directors for the Central Bank, monetary policy remains controlled by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aguila Saleh. He decides on raising or lowering taxes, taking over the central bank board’s authority. Unfortunately, no objections were raised by the board members.
- Inefficient Policies: The new management continues to operate with the same mindset as the previous one. Decisions like reducing personal allowance limits to $4,000 for the first six months of the year are illogical and have heightened demand for personal allowances. If the Central Bank had increased the personal allowance amount, it would have reduced the exchange rate in the parallel market and curbed demand. Monthly personal shipping value under the previous $10,000 annual cap was less than the current shipping value, as most participants aim to profit from reselling currency in the parallel market.
- Governmental Conflict: The existence of two governments, each claiming legitimacy, leads to unchecked spending without approved budgets.
- Smuggling and Trade Issues: Persistent issues such as oil smuggling, barter trade, and internal conflicts—like recent clashes in Zawiya and Al-Ajilat—continue to destabilize the situation.”
Given these factors, Al-Sanussi concluded that no decrease in exchange rates is expected this year.
