Financial expert Khaled Al-Zantouti wrote an article in which he said:
“Major global, political, and economic changes are sweeping across the world today, and they are likely to cause a severe economic imbalance in rentier states that rely on a single source of income—crude oil. The impact may be limited for some major oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia, as they can compensate for falling oil prices by ramping up production and offsetting the price loss with higher volume.
But in countries with limited or nonexistent flexibility in increasing output, like our case in Libya, we will undoubtedly suffer significantly from the drop in oil prices.
For your information, Brent crude prices have fallen by more than 25% over the past year. On May 27, 2024, the price was about $85 per barrel, and now, on May 27, 2025, it’s around $64 per barrel. According to technical analysis, Brent prices are expected to break the resistance level of $63–$64 and may fall below $60 soon. This decline could continue and may not be just a temporary dip as seen before.
Despite falling oil prices, OPEC+ has persisted in and is planning to increase production by about 1.2 million barrels per day during May, June, and July 2025, citing rising demand for oil. However, all forecasts point to a global slowdown in economic growth—especially in China, Europe, and the United States, the world’s biggest consumers. Some analysts are even predicting a grim outlook for the second half of the year, due to global trade wars and Trump’s strategic insistence on pushing oil prices down to between $50–$60 per barrel. Meanwhile, the cost of shale oil production in the U.S. has fallen to very low levels—around $30 per barrel—allowing American companies to enjoy healthy profit margins, possibly reaching 90% or more, even if prices drop to those U.S.-preferred levels.
As for our particular situation in Libya, unfortunately, we have no ability to increase production to make up for the expected price shortfall. It’s clear that we can’t raise our production beyond 1.4 million barrels per day—or even that much—despite the previously announced large capital budgets (if they are accurate). On the contrary, we’re witnessing declining production volumes from time to time.
Given all these negative factors—each pointing toward a significant drop in Brent prices—what are we supposed to do? How do we deal with such unrestrained spending in every sense? How can we continue to fight and clash under these circumstances? How will we cover the costs of this deadly struggle for power and domination? How do we pay for these pointless wars between “brotherly” enemies?
Your Excellencies, Honors, and all the other titles: Isn’t this conflict, bloodshed, and corruption enough? Isn’t the bloody power struggle and competition over spoils enough? Is there not one among you who is honest with God, his people, and himself, who will return to the path of righteousness?
By God, if we continue on this path, we will very soon fall into the abyss of debt—if anyone is even willing to lend to us. And perhaps our current and future generations will return to fekrish and ga‘moul!
(Note: “fekrish” and “ga‘moul” refer to traditional, modest Libyan foods, used here metaphorically to imply extreme poverty.)
Return to God and to the nation.
May God bless the sincere and honest among you.”
