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Author: Amira Cherni

Exclusive: Al-Ghwil Lists Reasons for Delayed Transfers of Oil Revenues from the National Oil Corporation to the Central Bank

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Presidential candidate and economic expert Mohamed Al-Ghwil stated to our source regarding the delay in transferring revenues from the National Oil Corporation to the Central Bank of Libya, saying: “One of the reasons is the exchange of crude oil for products (diesel and gasoline). I believe the NOC should commit to providing detailed monthly reports on this, as well as reports for previous years.”

Al-Ghwil clarified that among the reasons is the annual increase in exchanges and the need to review the terms of contracts for selling Libyan crude oil to ensure that payment periods for shipments are reduced to no more than three weeks from the shipping date. He also mentioned the lack of attention to monthly settlements between the NOC and the General Electricity Company.

He added: “It is unclear to the public whether there are revenues deposited in the accounts of the Libyan Foreign Bank and its subsidiaries that have not been transferred to the general revenue account (the Public Treasury) at the Central Bank of Libya. Similarly, it is unclear whether there have been recent restrictive measures imposed by the U.S. Treasury on transfers to the CBL’s accounts in recent months.”

Al-Ghwil concluded by noting: “These reasons are assumptions, and some may prove to be correct.”

Al-Akkari Questions: “Why Is Only One Entity Allowed to Issue Reports and Clarify the Truth to Society While Using Part of Its Reserves to Mitigate Parallel Market Risks?!”

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Former member of the Central Bank of Libya’s Exchange Rate Committee, Misbah Al-Akkari, expressed his concerns on his official Facebook page:

“With the price of oil at $80 per barrel, the National Oil Corporation reports a production of 1.4 million barrels per day, while the Central Bank has supplied $1.3 billion to the market for various purposes within just 14 days. Meanwhile, the parallel market exchange rate stands at 6.6 LYD per dollar.”

He added:
“Logic indicates there is a problem. The first issue lies in the deposit of oil revenues to the Central Bank, as it is unreasonable that only $500 million was deposited in half a month.

The second and far more critical problem is the absence of a real deterrent force to confront criminals in the currency market.

The third issue concerns those applying to purchase foreign currency for a specific purpose but then using it for speculation instead.”

Al-Akkari continued:
“Why is it that only one entity issues reports, clarifies the truth to the public, and uses part of its reserves to mitigate the risks of the parallel market while everyone else watches as if the matter doesn’t concern them?!”

He proposed solutions, urging the state to act promptly with the following measures:

  1. Parliament should urgently pass a law criminalizing the sale of foreign currency outside the legal framework.
  2. The government, through the Ministry of Economy, should issue directives to ban the entry of goods into the country unless foreign currency was obtained through official channels.
  3. Security agencies, in cooperation with the banking sector, should investigate a sample of foreign currency recipients to verify the purpose of the funds and trace how they are used, penalizing any violations.
  4. Awareness campaigns should target both traders and citizens, emphasizing the severe harm caused by currency speculation during this period, which will ultimately result in significant losses for everyone involved.

The Central Bank Covers the Demand for Foreign Currency from Its Accounts as the National Oil Corporation Explains Delays in Revenue Deposits

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The Central Bank of Libya announced in a statement yesterday that it continues to meet the demand for foreign currency, which exceeds the oil revenues deposited into its accounts since the beginning of January 2025. As of today, these revenues amount to only $500 million.

The CBL called on relevant parties to ensure the regular deposit of oil revenues so that the bank can meet the growing demand for foreign currency.

As of Tuesday, January 14, 2025, the total foreign currency allocated via the platform reached $731 million.

Regarding letters of credit and transfers, the CBL confirmed that it continues to cover all requests from commercial banks, with $490 million allocated for various goods and services without any restrictions. Additionally, $110 million was allocated to meet requests from public institutions, bringing the total to $1.331 billion.

On the other hand, the National Oil Corporation reported that oil revenues for 2024 decreased by $6.447 billion compared to 2023.

The NOC clarified that $2.4 billion of this amount relates to 2022 revenues, transferred to the treasury in 2023. This sum includes $718 million in oil revenues and $1.682 billion in taxes and royalties paid by TotalEnergies for the period from March 2018 to November 2019, representing revenues from previous years rather than 2023.

The NOC added that the average oil production in 2024 fell by 36 million barrels compared to 2023 due to closures that halted production for various reasons.

Furthermore, the average price of Brent crude in 2024 was $1.86 per barrel lower than in 2023.

The NOC highlighted additional financial burdens in 2024, including a $500 million increase in fuel imports due to rising demand from major consumers and repeated shutdowns at the Zawiya Refinery. These challenges necessitated filling the local refining gap through alternative external sources and substituting diesel for gas to sustain essential facilities amid fluctuating gas production.

Additionally, the NOC noted a $100 million increase in fuel supply expenses for the local market compared to 2023, including $40 million in debt settlements from previous years.

Gas imports were valued at $199 million, executed under a Cabinet decision, while $447 million was allocated to settle gas-related obligations to Eni in 2024, compared to 2023. This increase resulted from reduced gas production and higher domestic gas consumption, limiting export volumes.

Reasons Behind Qaderbouh’s Decision and Instructions to Suspend Appointments, Contracts in the Public Sector, and Domestic and Overseas Scholarships

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The President of the Administrative Control Authority for the Western Region, Abdullah Qaderbouh, has decided to halt the procedures for appointments and contracts in public sector positions until further review, in accordance with relevant legislative provisions.

This decision stems from the increasing number of public sector employees, which has exceeded 2,099,200, and the rise in expenditures under the first chapter of the budget—salaries and related costs—over the past years, amounting to 372,795,500,000 billion. This escalation is attributed to public entities issuing appointment and contract decisions in large numbers and in a disorganized manner, without adhering to Law No. (12) of 2010 on Labor Relations, its amendments, and its executive regulations. This has created financial obligations for the public treasury, including salary releases and financial differences, which the state has been unable to fulfill. Consequently, this has led to disputes and court rulings in favor of the concerned employees due to their established legal rights, which were not compensated for their assigned duties, in violation of the legal principle of “pay for work rendered.” This contravenes the provisions of the State Financial System Law and the Budget, Accounts, and Stores Regulations by imposing financial obligations on the state’s administrative apparatus without corresponding financial coverage, and without utilizing the surplus workforce in the Ministry of Civil Service by reallocating qualified personnel in compliance with Article (161) of the aforementioned Labor Relations Law.

Additionally, the Authority has observed that many public entities have exempted their employees from proving attendance and departure due to the Ministry of Finance’s Budget Department not releasing their salaries. Despite this, demands for their financial entitlements continue without any contributions to the public sector, even though Circular No. (4) of 2022 from the Minister of Finance in the Government of National Unity obliges all entities funded by the public treasury to adhere to spending within the allocated budget limits. It also prohibits creating any financial obligations without corresponding financial coverage and forwarding any financial claims to the Ministry that are outside its jurisdiction. This situation has disrupted the functioning of the state’s administrative apparatus, burdened it with enormous financial commitments, and drained the resources of oversight bodies as they investigate and address employee complaints and claims regarding financial entitlements.

Moreover, Qaderbouh has issued instructions to the Prime Minister of the Government of National Unity and the Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research to suspend the issuance of scholarship decisions, both domestic and overseas, until all existing financial obligations related to the Ministry are settled.

Tight Security Measures at Al-Wafa Field: Details Inside

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The North Africa Post reported on Monday that the Petroleum Facilities Guard branch in the south has called on all entities responsible for securing the Al-Wafa oil field in response to what it described as a matter of utmost importance.

According to the report, the Presidential Protection Force urged all brigades to deploy on the ground to enhance security, despite not disclosing the reasons behind the heightened state of emergency.

The PFG posted images on Facebook showing patrols by brigades stationed at the Al-Wafa oil field, located 540 kilometers southwest of Tripoli near the Libyan-Algerian border. However, the PFG did not specify the exact threats that prompted the security alert.

The North Africa Post also noted that neither the National Oil Corporation nor Mellitah Oil and Gas, the joint operators of the field, have issued any statements regarding the recent developments.

Al-Zantouti: “Truncated Oil Sales and Disgraceful Telecommunications Revenues!!”

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The Financial expert Khaled Al-Zantouti wrote: “The revenue and expenditure report for 2024, issued by the Central Bank, contains numerous elements that require deep analysis to clarify some of its ambiguities and bottlenecks.

However, in this brief article, I will focus on just two elements of revenue that caught my attention (with good intentions). My aim is purely to shed light on them for a noble purpose: demanding clarity and transparency.

First, regarding oil sales revenue: the report indicates that the value of oil sales (transferred to the Central Bank, excluding oil royalties) for 2024 amounted to approximately $17.8 billion (at the official exchange rate). This allows us to estimate the value of crude oil sales based on an average daily production of about 1.25 million barrels per day, conservatively accounting for occasional negative production conditions.

After deducting the foreign partner’s share (about 12%, or roughly 150,000 barrels daily) and the amount refined domestically (around 225,000 barrels), the remaining production available for sale is approximately 875,000 barrels.

According to the Statista Research Department’s report dated January 9, 2025, the average price of Brent crude was $80.53 per barrel in 2024. This means daily sales would be:
875,000 barrels × $80.53 = $70.463 million per day.
For the entire year:
$70.463 million × 366 days = $25.79 billion.

According to the state’s financial laws, all oil sales revenue must be deposited into the Central Bank’s account at the Libyan Foreign Bank. However, the amount transferred was only $17.8 billion, as per the mentioned Central Bank report.

This implies that approximately $8 billion (over 30%) was not deposited into the Central Bank. This is a substantial amount that demands full transparency and clarification from the relevant authorities. Perhaps some of it was bartered for refined products; maybe all of it — we don’t know. Could some of it still be held by the National Oil Corporation? If so, doesn’t this constitute a clear violation of the state’s financial laws?

It is also worth noting the significant decline in oil revenues over the past three years. Revenues for 2024 decreased by about 31% compared to 2022 and by 25.6% compared to 2023. This is deeply concerning. If this downward trend continues at the same rate, we are heading for disaster, especially given the expected fluctuations in crude oil prices under Mr. Trump’s administration.

Second, the other element that drew my attention is the extremely low telecommunications revenue. According to certain international indicators, telecommunications revenues typically constitute 3%–8% of a country’s GDP. For example, telecommunications revenues in Egypt account for about 5.8% of its GDP.

Random observations suggest, without exaggeration, that over 70% of private car drivers use mobile phones (for calls or internet) while driving, particularly in crowded areas. Moreover, in many households, family members only gather when the internet is down; otherwise, everyone is glued to their phones, men and women alike, even in bed. These indicators strongly suggest that Libyans are among the world’s most frequent users of mobile phones and the internet. Thus, Libya’s telecommunications revenue should be substantial.

Assuming a conservative 4% of GDP (250 billion dinars), telecommunications revenue should exceed 10 billion dinars. Yet, according to the Central Bank’s report, telecommunications revenue for 2024 amounted to just 205 million dinars. This figure is both laughable and tragic. Where did the revenue go? Was it hidden or squandered? We simply need clarification.”

Exclusive: Ruvinetti: “The Blockade on Libyan Oil Remains in Place and a Threatening Tool for the Tripoli Government”

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Strategic expert Daniele Ruvinetti stated to our source on Sunday that the threat of an oil blockade remains high. Historically, forces in eastern Libya have used control over oil facilities as a means of pressure in political disputes. If no political solution is reached, the situation could escalate not only into an economic crisis but also into a military confrontation, as occurred in the past.

Ruvinetti continued by saying that Libya’s history shows that such disputes often begin with the suspension of oil production and exerting pressure on Tripoli, eventually escalating into armed clashes between competing groups. Given the already volatile environment, it is essential to prevent such scenarios by accelerating efforts toward a government transition.

Ruvinetti increasingly views the continued presence of the Dbeibeh administration as an obstacle to stability. Removing this obstacle through an organized political process is crucial to de-escalating tensions and preventing Libya from becoming a more dangerous flashpoint in an already heated regional context, according to him.

Central Bank Statement Reveals Increase in Foreign Currency Usage in 2024 Compared to Previous Years, Reaching 27 Billion Dollars

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The Central Bank of Libya revealed an increase in the use of foreign currency during 2024 compared to previous years, reaching 27 billion dollars.

Salaries for employees abroad amounted to approximately 302 million dollars, student grants for those studying abroad were 207 million dollars, treatment abroad costs were 101 million dollars, fuel subsidies were zero, the National Oil Corporation received 1.648 billion dollars, remittances to other entities were 600 million dollars, and the Medical Supply Authority and the National Center for Disease Control received 288 million dollars.

The General Electricity Company received 896 million dollars, higher education and scientific research received 38 million dollars, and credits for other entities amounted to 239 million dollars.

Additionally, documentary credits reached 12.950 billion dollars, remittances were 352 million dollars, personal purposes were 9.257 billion dollars, and merchant cards totaled 152 million dollars.

Exclusive: International Trade Expert Yassin Abu Sriwil on Libyan Dinar Stability Against the Dollar in 2025

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International trade expert Yassin Abu Sriwil told our source that economic forecasts point to relative stability in the Libyan dinar’s exchange rate against the US dollar in 2025, with a potential slight improvement. According to global macroeconomic models and estimates by Trading Economics, the Libyan dinar is expected to trade at 4.89 against the dollar by the end of the current quarter and reach 4.92 within the next 12 months.

1. Parallel Market and Its Effects

Despite official forecasts, local estimates suggest the dollar could exceed 5.50 LYD in the parallel market due to unregulated demand for hard currency and new policies on essential goods allocations, limiting foreign currency access.

“While these restrictions aim to rationalize spending, the Central Bank of Libya’s lack of a clear budget for foreign currency needs keeps demand high. Cross-border trade leakage to neighboring countries also adds pressure on the parallel market,” Abu Sriwil said.

2. Factors Supporting Exchange Rate Stability

The stability of the official exchange rate is closely tied to the Central Bank’s strong foreign reserves, which stand at $84 billion, including $29 billion of usable reserves by the end of Q1 2025.

Abu Sriwil added that the IMF forecasts Libya to achieve the highest Arab economic growth rate of 13.7% this year, relying on stable and increased oil production supported by rising global demand amid geopolitical and economic crises.

3. Demand for Foreign Currency

Data indicates a decline in demand for foreign currency during the first half of this month compared to last year, due to:

  • Reduced Parallel Market Gains: Narrowing the gap between official and parallel exchange rates has lowered speculative trading.
  • Stricter Currency Policies: Tighter documentation requirements for foreign currency transactions have curbed excessive demand.

4. Economic Challenges and Influencing Factors

While the outlook is positive, key risks remain:

  • Oil Prices: Libya’s economy heavily depends on oil revenues, and fluctuations in prices directly impact reserves.
  • Political Stability: Continued divisions or internal crises could undermine the Central Bank’s ability to manage the market.
  • Economic Reforms: Integrating the parallel market with the official system is crucial for stabilizing the dinar.

Outlook and Recommendations

“With robust reserves and rising oil revenues, the official exchange rate is expected to remain stable. However, the parallel market remains a concern, driven by speculation, persistent demand, and trade leakage,” Abu Sriwil explained.

Achieving sustainable stability requires strategic measures, including:

  • Enhancing transparency.
  • Developing the foreign exchange system.
  • Effectively utilizing oil revenues to strengthen the national economy.
  • Prioritizing non-oil industries and exports for long-term economic resilience.

Exclusive: Abu Bakr Abu Al-Qasim: “The Central Bank and the Battle Against Market Speculators”

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The Head of the Accounting Department at the Libyan Academy for Graduate Studies, Abu Bakr Abu Al-Qasim, exclusively told our source: “Foreign exchange sales for personal purpose cards reached $472 million during the first 12 days of January. The Central Bank remains steadfast in its policy of meeting all foreign currency demands without interruption or restrictions, despite rumors propagated by speculators aiming to create chaos in the market with claims of halting the foreign currency sales system.”

He added, “Despite inflated and uncontrolled government spending, coupled with declining oil revenue flows, the Central Bank continues to lead the battle against market speculators alone through a well-thought-out policy, even as governments remain idle.”

He concluded by saying, “It is imperative for everyone to stand by the Central Bank in its battle against speculators and exert pressure on governments in both the East and West to rationalize spending and deposit oil revenues fully into the general revenue account at the Central Bank without deductions. This is the only solution to maintaining the strength of the dinar and potentially improving its value in the near future.”

Exclusive: Al-Zantouti: “The Real Issue is the Inability to Determine a Fair Exchange Rate for the Dinar”

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Financial expert Khaled Al-Zantouti told our source exclusively, “For years, we have failed to establish a fair exchange rate for the dinar, one that is determined using standard economic models based on recognized macro and microeconomic variables.”

Al-Zantouti added, “Over the years, the exchange rate for our dinar has been determined by a group of speculators in the Souq Al-Mushir, driven by their interests and benefits. These individuals (not to generalize) manipulate the supply of dollars to control the rate. This occurs amid the absence of effective monetary policies from the Central Bank of Libya, which has remained a passive observer without monetary policy tools or authority over the reckless spending of competing governments. These governments, in some cases, collaborate with those speculators in a covert agreement to undermine the dinar’s strength.”

He continued, “Amid this shameful and consumption-driven competition and the collusion of crisis traders, the Central Bank remains paralyzed, unable to address the dinar’s plight. This paralysis stems from the lack of integration between monetary, fiscal, and trade policies, not to mention the uncertainty around how the exchange rate is determined—whether it’s fixed, flexible, or subject to partial or full floating.”

“These cumulative factors make it extremely difficult to estimate the exchange rate for 2025 scientifically or objectively. Unfortunately, indicators suggest a continuation of the confusion and speculation that marked previous years.”

Al-Zantouti also noted, “It is evident that the Central Bank, under its new administration, is attempting to establish a foundation for its monetary policy and regulate the currency exchange market. While this effort is commendable, it will likely take time. Ultimately, the Souq Al-Mushir will remain the decisive factor in determining the exchange rate.”

He highlighted the Central Bank’s ability to defend the current exchange rate (with the 15% tax) by ensuring dollar supply, combating inflation, maintaining foreign currency reserves, and potentially using these reserves if oil revenues decline. He remarked, “If the Central Bank manages to maintain the current rate between 6.10 and 6.40, under the present circumstances, it would be a significant achievement.”

Al-Zantouti concluded, “Given the prevailing conditions of unchecked government spending, political instability, and uncertainty around oil prices and production, the Central Bank cannot fundamentally address the exchange rate issue or set a fair and sustainable rate for the long term. However, if it succeeds in maintaining the range of 6.10–6.30 this year, it would undoubtedly be a positive accomplishment. We hope for this outcome.”

Exclusive: Al-Sanussi Predicts an Increase in Exchange Rates and Lists the Reasons

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Economic expert Mohammed Al-Sanussi provided exclusive comments to our source regarding the Libyan dinar’s exchange rate in 2025. He stated, “In Libya, predicting the exchange rate in the parallel market is nearly impossible as the market is highly volatile and subject to significant changes due to any decision or even rumors.”

He added, “However, with the current situation, an increase in the exchange rate is more likely than a decrease, for several reasons:

  1. Central Bank Governance Issues: Despite appointing a new governor and establishing a board of directors for the Central Bank, monetary policy remains controlled by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aguila Saleh. He decides on raising or lowering taxes, taking over the central bank board’s authority. Unfortunately, no objections were raised by the board members.
  2. Inefficient Policies: The new management continues to operate with the same mindset as the previous one. Decisions like reducing personal allowance limits to $4,000 for the first six months of the year are illogical and have heightened demand for personal allowances. If the Central Bank had increased the personal allowance amount, it would have reduced the exchange rate in the parallel market and curbed demand. Monthly personal shipping value under the previous $10,000 annual cap was less than the current shipping value, as most participants aim to profit from reselling currency in the parallel market.
  3. Governmental Conflict: The existence of two governments, each claiming legitimacy, leads to unchecked spending without approved budgets.
  4. Smuggling and Trade Issues: Persistent issues such as oil smuggling, barter trade, and internal conflicts—like recent clashes in Zawiya and Al-Ajilat—continue to destabilize the situation.”

Given these factors, Al-Sanussi concluded that no decrease in exchange rates is expected this year.

Jumhouria Bank Launches Smart Card for Contactless Payments

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The Media Office Manager at the Jumhouria Bank, Mohammed Saeed, announced the launch of the smart card service, one of the latest banking innovations in the country, designed to simplify and accelerate payment transactions at point-of-sale terminals.

In an exclusive statement to our source, Saeed explained that the smart card allows customers to complete purchases by simply tapping the card on a point-of-sale device without entering a PIN, provided the transaction value is less than 30 dinars.

He highlighted that this technology relies on a contactless payment system, combining speed and security, making it an ideal choice for daily transactions.

Saeed emphasized that this service aligns with the Jumhouria Bank’s efforts to provide modern banking solutions tailored to customer needs. He also encouraged interested customers to visit the bank’s branches to obtain the new smart card.

This step is part of the bank’s strategy to enhance banking services and promote the adoption of financial technology in the local market.

Exclusive: Ruvinetti: “Relocating the National Oil Corporation to Eastern Libya Poses Significant Risks; Replacing Dbeibeh’s Government Is the Only Solution”

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Italian strategic expert Daniele Ruvinetti told our source on Sunday that the potential relocation of the National Oil Corporation from Tripoli to eastern Libya entails significant risks, notably heightened tensions within the country. He emphasized that while authorities in the east have long expressed dissatisfaction with what they perceive as the central management of the NOC in Tripoli, addressing this issue through unilateral action would further destabilize the nation.

Ruvinetti stated that the only viable solution is the formation of a unified government capable of replacing the current administration led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh. He argued that Dbeibeh’s government has become part of Libya’s ongoing problems rather than a force for stability.

He explained that a government with national legitimacy, established through an inclusive political process, would ensure a fairer distribution of oil revenues and prevent further fragmentation. This approach aligns with the recommendations of UN Special Representative Abdoulaye Bathily and his successor, who have emphasized the need for a consensus-based political transition to avoid further escalation.

Exclusive: Saber Al-Wahsh Questions Central Bank’s Ability to Sustain Current Exchange Rate Amid Declining Foreign Currency Revenues

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Economic expert Saber Al-Wahsh exclusively told our source that the exchange rate is a product of interaction rather than a decision.

He explained: “Although adjusting the exchange rate is issued by the Central Bank, its execution relies on the government and the National Oil Corporation. The Central Bank’s role is limited to addressing emergency circumstances using available reserves. Over the past year, the Central Bank utilized $8 billion in reserves to maintain the current exchange rate.”

He added: “But how long can the Central Bank defend this rate amidst clear declines in foreign currency revenues and expanded deficit spending? The answer lies with the National Oil Corporation through the revenues it generates and with the governments through their expenditures. Essentially, the Corporation and the governments are the ones determining the currency exchange rate.”

Al-Wahsh further stated: “If the issues related to barter trade are resolved, fuel imports are organized, and spending is rationalized, we may witness some stability in the exchange rate. However, if the current situation persists, an exchange rate adjustment will not be far off, which is something we hope to avoid.”