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Author: Amira Cherni

Exclusive: Abu Sriwil: “Removing Subsidies Is Currently More of an Attempt to Prevent Economic Collapse”

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The international trade expert Yassin Abu Sriwil stated in an interview with our source that lifting subsidies in Libya is being presented as an option to address several economic challenges. However, under current circumstances, it appears to be more of an attempt to prevent economic collapse rather than a strategic decision based on a clear vision.

He added that the primary reasons cited for lifting subsidies include:

Budget Deficit:
Subsidies represent a significant financial burden on the state, with a large portion of revenues allocated to subsidizing essential goods and energy. This reduces the government’s ability to fund other developmental projects or improve public services. Subsidies in Libya indirectly benefit smugglers and certain parties who exploit price differences to smuggle fuel and imported goods to neighboring countries.

He also stated that lifting subsidies is seen as a measure to curb this financial drain:

  • Economic Infrastructure Collapse:
    Continuing subsidies depletes financial reserves and increases reliance solely on oil revenues, making the economy more vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices.
  • International Recommendations:
    Some international organizations, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, recommend rationalizing or removing subsidies as part of economic reforms to address distortions in the Libyan economy.

Why Does the Decision Face Significant Challenges?

  • Lack of Trust in the Government:
    Citizens do not trust that removing subsidies will be met with actual compensation or improvements in living conditions due to corruption and weak institutions.
  • Absence of an Effective Compensation System:
    Despite discussions about compensating citizens through cash transfers or direct support, there is no reliable infrastructure or administrative system to ensure fair implementation.
  • Deteriorating Security and Political Situation:
    Political divisions and conflicts make any economic reform a significant challenge.
  • Social Repercussions:
    Removing subsidies without clear alternatives could lead to a significant increase in prices, exacerbating the suffering of citizens, especially amidst widespread poverty and high unemployment rates.

He concluded by stating that lifting subsidies in Libya is not an easily implementable option at the moment. It is being proposed as a necessary step to avoid economic collapse. However, without comprehensive reform of the political and economic system, such a measure could result in even greater negative impacts on citizens.

Economist at the University of London Reveals How the Libyan Economy is Being Exploited

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Dr. Mohsen Al-Salamouni, an economist at the London School of Economics, told our source on Thursday that the Libyan market is promising for investment. However, the economic situation worsens daily due to the exploitation by armed groups benefiting from the current instability.

Al-Salamouni emphasized to our source that for Libya to achieve economic growth, the country must rid itself of these controlling armed groups. Unfortunately, these groups have also exploited the nation’s wealth for their personal interests rather than for Libya’s development.

He added that Libya needs patriotic individuals with knowledge and expertise who can work towards unifying the country. They should focus on using power to build the economy, not to oppress the Libyan people. Libya has all the economic components to become a major economic power.

Commenting on Fuel Subsidy Removal… Ghaith to Sada: “If It’s About Budget Expenses, There Are Many Costs That Can Be Eliminated”

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Former board member of the Central Bank of Libya, Mrajaa Ghaith, commented to our source regarding the removal of fuel subsidies approved by the Libyan government. He stated that the term “removal” is inaccurate, and the correct expression should be “substitution of subsidies.” From the perspective of justice and logic, removing subsidies is not a simple matter and cannot be a hasty decision taken lightly. It requires thorough studies, societal dialogue, and convincing citizens of the reasons behind substituting subsidies.

Ghaith added that if the issue concerns the large budget expenditures in this area, there are many other expenses that can be reduced or eliminated to save funds.

He also clarified that the state has revenues with external entities that it has not considered collecting. Subsidies should not be subject to political competition but rather should be a prudent decision based on careful studies.

Ghaith concluded his remarks by saying: “I do not understand whether this decision was discussed with the Central Bank of Libya. This is a political decision by the government. As for smuggling, it will not stop unless the price of fuel equals or exceeds its price in neighboring countries, so there is no profit in smuggling it. Technology can also be employed to combat smuggling by using tracking systems and requiring fuel to be sold only through a special card system instead of cash.”

Exclusive: South Tripoli Court Rules to Remove Shakshak’s Authority, Legal Administration Halts Execution of the Ruling

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Our source has exclusively obtained correspondence from the Deputy of the Audit Bureau addressed to several officials within the bureau regarding the ruling of the South Tripoli Primary Court.

Al-Saiti formed a committee to carry out procedures for receiving the responsibilities held by Khaled Shakshak, closing the outgoing register, and shutting down the decision system under his authority. This follows the South Tripoli Court’s ruling to suspend him from duty and remove his official capacity.

In turn, the Legal Administration addressed the Audit Bureau, instructing the suspension of the enforcement of the administrative order issued against the Audit Bureau head, Khaled Shakshak, pending a session at the Tripoli Court of Appeal scheduled for February 2025.

Exclusive: The Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Mohamed Aoun to Return to His Duties as Minister of Oil

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Oil Minister Mohamed Aoun confirmed in a correspondence exclusively obtained by our source that the Supreme Court’s ruling today, as the highest judicial authority in the state of Libya, established over 70 years ago, supports and affirms the decision of the Court of Appeal. He expressed gratitude, noting that the ruling is a clear indication of the integrity and impartiality of the Libyan judiciary.

He continued: “On this occasion, I renew my legitimate request and my rightful appeal to the legislative, judicial, and supervisory bodies in Libya to oblige the Prime Minister to implement these judicial rulings and to refrain from disregarding or undermining them.”

He also addressed foreign partners, urging them to comply with the rulings issued by Libyan courts, respect them, and implement them, while refraining from exploiting the current situation in the country or using it as an excuse. This is particularly relevant following the ruling of the Tripoli Court of Appeal on October 9, 2024, regarding the Chairman of the National Oil Corporation, which stated that he had lost the legitimacy to hold his public office and is considered an usurper of power. All of his official actions were declared null and void, and foreign partners should avoid entering into any agreements or work programs with him.

Aoun also drew the attention of Prime Minister Dbeibeh and the Deputy Minister of Oil and Gas, warning that failure to implement judicial rulings and disregarding them is a personal responsibility that will result in criminal prosecution and legal accountability, regardless of the time frame.

Finally, he directed international oil and energy organizations, particularly the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Arab Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), to deal only with legitimate ministers and not allow any harm to these esteemed international organizations.

Exclusive: The Legal Advisor: “An Administrative Correspondence Cannot Be Used by the Audit Bureau’s Representative to Enforce a Judicial Ruling or Order”

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The legal advisor, Hisham Al-Harati, stated exclusively to our source: “The Audit Bureau’s representative or any administrative employee is not permitted to enforce a judicial ruling or order through an administrative correspondence.”

He added: “The enforcement of judicial rulings and orders is exclusively carried out by bailiffs in accordance with the procedures outlined in the Libyan Code of Civil Procedure. This cannot be done through administrative directives. Any action contrary to this constitutes an overreach of administrative employees’ authority and violates the provisions of Article 365 of the Libyan Code of Civil Procedure, which stipulates that enforcement must be conducted by bailiffs based on the request of the benefiting party or their legal representative.”

He further clarified: “Therefore, this responsibility does not fall within the duties of an administrative employee. Hence, administrative correspondences issued by the Audit Bureau’s representative or any administrative body do not constitute a lawful means to enforce judicial rulings. Any action undertaken in this manner is a clear violation of the Libyan Code of Civil Procedure and exposes the violator to legal accountability.”

Exclusive: Shriha Speaks About the Issue of Contaminated Petrol, Suspension of His Salary, and Delay in Receiving His Dues from the National Oil Corporation… Here’s What He Demanded

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Engineer Masoud Shriha stated in a comment to our source regarding the cancellation of the arbitrary transfer decision, in which the ruling was issued with an enforcement clause to cancel the decision and compensate with 10,000 Libyan dinars, a ruling that has not yet been executed by the National Oil Corporation. In contrast, foreign rulings related to corruption cases, such as the case of Lukoil, the supplier of contaminated petrol, the corporation quickly moves to implement the rulings and settle the case by paying the amount of 42 million dollars.

He also said: “I firmly believe that the involved company was surprised by the speed with which they agreed to the settlement, and their willingness to accept the Libyan position is evident in the company’s waiver of 20% of the announced amount.”

Shriha mentioned that as a Libyan citizen, he is supposed to enjoy his full rights within the country. During the case, he was deprived of his basic rights, as his salary was suspended for 8 months, and the corporation delayed the payment of his dues despite the issuance of an urgent ruling to stop the execution. Some of his dues have still not been paid to this day, and the latest ruling, a final judicial ruling from Libyan courts, has not been implemented. However, a foreign judicial ruling has been executed by the oil corporation, which clearly reflects disrespect and diminishment of the Libyan judiciary, the Attorney General’s office, and the security authorities.

He questioned the role of the rule of law, good governance, and citizenship rights, which our rulers often boast about.

He also called on the Prime Minister of the Government of National Unity (Abdulhamid Dbeibeh), who has repeatedly spoken out against injustice, to ensure justice is served and the court ruling is enforced.

Adding that, although he had hoped for good from the Prime Minister, his observations from what he sees and hears in the media give a poor impression of how his case is being handled, and he hopes he is wrong about this.

Shriha concluded by thanking the judiciary, which was fair and just in his case, and stressed the need for strict action against anyone obstructing the execution of rulings so that the pillars of justice are fulfilled by the concerned authorities. “God is sufficient for me, and He is the best disposer of affairs for those seeking personal and foreign interests at the expense of the nation and its citizens.”

Independent: The Libyan Economy Between Declining Oil Revenues and Corruption

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The African Development Bank on Tuesday projected a growth rate of 6.2% for the Libyan economy in 2025, based on the National Oil Corporation’s goals, which anticipate exceeding a production level of 1.5 million barrels per day by the end of that year.

“Independent Arabia” reported that the Libyan economy experienced a difficult year due to fluctuations in oil production and a collapse in the third quarter of the current year caused by political disputes between rival authorities at the head of governance.

The newspaper confirmed that Libyan oil production has significantly improved in recent weeks, reaching 1.42 million barrels per day, the highest level in over a decade. This supports forecasts suggesting that the Libyan economy could recover and regain economic growth momentum next year, according to donor institutions.

Exclusive: Banking Source Reveals the Opening of the Foreign Exchange System on January 1 for All Purposes

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Our banking source confirmed that the foreign exchange system will be opened on January 1 for all purposes.

The Central Bank’s administration is reportedly ready to begin operations normally, according to the source.

Husni Bey: “The Solution to the Cement Crisis Lies in Liberalizing its Price”

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Written by businessman Husni Bey regarding the cement crisis: “There is no doubt that cement is a basic commodity, highly demanded in the local market across all sectors, and directly affects the real estate sector, which accounts for no less than 60% of the national wealth. The availability of cement and the stability of its prices will have a significant impact on the national economy.”

Bey explained the current situation: “The cost of local cement production is 160-190 USD per ton (16-19 Libyan dinars per quintal), while the cost of imported cement from abroad is:

  • Turkey: 461 dinars per ton (46.1 dinars per quintal)
  • Tunisia and Egypt: 399 dinars per ton (39.9 dinars per quintal).” He added that speculators are working to set prices at the highest possible, which is the Turkish cement price at 461 dinars per quintal and sometimes even higher, reaching 700 dinars per quintal. Speculators benefit from the price difference, which is 31 dinars per quintal, totaling 1.4 billion dinars annually.

Bey also presented the proposed situation:

  • Stabilizing the price of locally produced cement at 39 dinars per quintal.
  • This will block speculators and stabilize the price.
  • Local factories will benefit from the price difference as additional profits.
  • These profits can be used to develop local factories and increase production to cover the entire market, eliminating the need for imports.
  • Increased production will reduce costs, allowing prices to decrease gradually.
  • Surplus production can be exported, benefiting the national economy.

Regarding cement production and fuel:

  • The total installed production capacity in Libya is 10 million tons.
  • The operational production capacity is 7 million tons.
  • Actual production reaches 5 million tons.
  • The owning companies are three: Libyan, National, and Burj Al-Fateh.
  • Libya’s consumption exceeds 7 million tons annually.
  • The gap between local production and market demand is covered by imports from Tunisia, Egypt, and Turkey.

Before and after the revolution, the price of cement in the Libyan market was determined based on the cost of the imported alternative, especially cement imported by sea from Turkey.

The costs of importing packaged cement (Turkish, Egyptian, and Tunisian) are as follows:

  • Factory cost (EXW): $45 per ton for Turkish cement and $50 per ton for Egyptian and Tunisian cement.
  • Shipping cost from Turkey: $25 per ton.
  • Shipping cost from Egypt or Tunisia: $15 per ton.
  • Handling and transportation costs by sea: $5 per ton.

We conclude that the highest price is for Turkish cement, at $75 per ton, and the lowest price is for Egyptian and Tunisian cement, at $65 per ton.

Considering the exchange rate (6.150 LYD/USD), the cost of imported cement (competitive alternative) for local factories in Libyan dinars is as follows:

  • Cement imported from Turkey: maximum of 461 dinars per ton or 46.10 dinars per quintal.
  • Cement imported from Egypt and Tunisia: minimum of 399 dinars per ton or 39.9 dinars per quintal.

Considering the cost of energy, the environment, and mining privileges abroad:

  • The cost of energy for cement production abroad is approximately $15 per ton (in Libya, the cost cannot exceed $1 per ton due to subsidies).
  • Environmental and mining taxes in Turkey, Egypt, and Tunisia are estimated at $5 per ton (in Libya, they may be free).

We conclude that the cost of production per ton in Libya is lower than in Turkey, Egypt, and Tunisia by $19. Therefore, the cost of production in Libya cannot exceed $31 as a maximum and $26 as a minimum.

Thus, the cost of cement production in Libya is approximately:

  • Minimum: $26 per ton compared to Turkey, or 159.9 dinars per ton or 16 dinars per quintal.
  • Maximum compared to Egypt and Tunisia: $31 per ton or 190 dinars per ton or 19 dinars per quintal.

Speculation
When the same commodity is available at different prices, speculators will naturally exploit that, trying to set the prices at the highest level.

  • Turkish cement: 46.1 dinars per quintal.
  • Tunisian and Egyptian cement: 39.9 dinars per quintal.
  • Libyan cement ranges from 16 dinars to 19 dinars per quintal.

Due to the shortage of production and the inability to meet market demand (despite the capability to increase production), speculators try to maximize their returns by purchasing Libyan cement at 16-19 dinars per quintal and selling it at the minimum price of Tunisian and Egyptian cement (39.9 dinars per quintal) and at the maximum price of Turkish cement (46.1 dinars per quintal).

Proposed Pricing Mechanism
Based on the above narrative and considering the indicators mentioned, the lowest comparative price is the price of Egypt and Tunisia (39.90 dinars per quintal). Therefore, the price of locally produced cement should be set at 39 dinars per quintal.

Goals of Establishing a General Pricing Policy for Cement
The goal is to:

  • Operate the three local factories at maximum production capacity (no less than 7 million tons per year).
  • Minimize the role of speculators in controlling prices and increase the revenue for local factories, which will enable them to develop and increase production capacity, instead of the speculative profits that go to speculators.

The speculative profit is estimated at 1.4 billion dinars annually (7 million tons × 200 dinars per ton). Pricing the local product at 39 dinars per quintal will generate additional profit of 1.4 billion dinars annually for the three factories combined.

The profit surplus may be subject to taxes (20% income + 4% Jihad), which will return income to the public treasury, estimated at 336 million dinars.

The net profit for companies will be approximately 1.064 billion dinars or 173 million USD.

Building New Factories and Increasing Production Capacity

  • The cost of building a new factory is estimated at $150 per ton of production.
  • The cost of establishing a factory with a production capacity of 1 million tons is estimated at $150 million.
  • With net additional profits (173 million USD), a new factory with a production capacity of 1.15 million tons per year can be built.
  • In three years, new factories with a total production capacity of over 3.5 million tons per year can be established.

What are the market directives when adding a production capacity of 3.5 million tons per year to reach or exceed the local production threshold of 10 million tons per year?

By establishing a production capacity of 1.15 million tons per year, we will:

  • First: Eliminate the need for imports to cover market demand (approximately between 70-140 million USD) due to local self-sufficiency.
  • Second: In three years, local cement production will exceed 10.5 million tons.
  • Third: All imports from abroad will stop, and we will achieve complete self-sufficiency.
  • Fourth: Once self-sufficiency is achieved, competition will begin among local factories to improve quality, services, and prices.
  • Fifth: Speculation will end, and cement prices will stabilize in the market.
  • Sixth: In five years, the goal will be for the price of locally produced cement in Libya, regardless of production costs, to not exceed $45-50 per ton or 27.5-30.75 dinars per quintal, including production costs and factory profit margin (even if an environmental tax and a $5 per ton replacement subsidy is imposed).

These prices are competitive compared to neighboring countries and internationally, enabling us to export the surplus and achieve additional profits and value added to the economy.

The goal is to return to a competitive price between parties, not exceeding 30 dinars per quintal, even if energy subsidies (10-15 USD per ton) are removed and taxes and royalties (5 USD per ton) are imposed.

Short-term Goals (1-2 Years):

  • Stop speculation on cement except within acceptable commercial limits, not exceeding 10%.
  • End the conflict over managing and marketing local factory products resulting from attempts to benefit from the existing price difference, which reaches 31 dinars per quintal (average local factory price is 18 dinars per quintal compared to 46.1 dinars per quintal for imported Turkish cement).
  • End the conflict over speculative profits, which currently exceed 1.5 billion dinars annually.
  • Local factories will achieve additional profits of up to 20 dinars per quintal, totaling 1.4 billion dinars annually for 7 million tons of annual production.
  • Producing 7 million tons or more will eliminate the need for cement imports and save approximately 70-140 million USD (this reduces the depletion of hard currency and supports the dollar-based balance of payments).
  • Funds will be available for factories to develop and increase production, using self-financing for 1.15 million tons annually.

Medium-term Goals (3-5 Years):

  • Raising production to at least 7 million tons per year will dry up the sources of speculation and end the conflict over the 31 dinars per quintal reward, or 1.4 billion dinars annually.
  • Increasing production capacity to 10.5 million tons will reduce costs, leading to the possibility of reducing prices in the Libyan market to 30.7 dinars per quintal (if fuel subsidies continue, the price may fall to less than 21.50 dinars per quintal).
  • The possibility of replacing old, dilapidated factories with modern ones, using self-financing from achieved profits.
  • When prices in Libya fall to a level not exceeding $45 per ton, export demand will increase.

Al-Hassi to Our Source: “The National Commercial Bank’s Budget Exceeds 500 Million Dinars in Profits for 2024”

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The Chairman of the Board of Directors of the National Commercial Bank, Khaled Al-Hassi, stated in a comment to our source, on the occasion of the bank’s 70th anniversary, that nearly 7 billion dinars have been settled, and provisions have risen to approximately 1.3 billion dinars to address any potential issues. This instills confidence in external correspondents when dealing with the commercial bank in foreign transactions.

Al-Hassi added that the bank’s budget is expected to exceed 500 million dinars in profits during 2024, for the first time since its establishment. This comes after avoiding the anticipated tax expenses. He further clarified that most branches in the southern region have been renovated, and some young university graduates have been hired to enhance the workforce.

Al-Hassi emphasized that the bank has settled the situation for its employees, added more than 300 ATM machines, and now has machines for both Libyan dinars and foreign currencies. He added that the bank is working on including some banks, oil companies, and insurance companies to obtain certificates in banking operations in various economic fields, including risk management, Islamic banking, and others.

Concluding his statement to our source, Al-Hassi said: “I believe that today, especially in this month, we are the only bank in Libya paying the equivalent of 2,000 dinars, unlike other banks. Moreover, all machines are functioning efficiently with financial provisions and operate 24 hours a day.”

Al-Hassi to Our Source: “The National Commercial Bank Aims to Establish or Contribute to a Digital Bank”

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The Chairman of the Board of Directors of the National Commercial Bank, Khaled Al-Hassi, stated to our source that the bank aims, if approved by the Central Bank of Libya in the coming days, to establish or contribute to a digital bank. He also mentioned that the bank seeks to correct the status of the leasing company and launch it soon to become one of the supporting arms of the bank’s activities, which, until now, are solely owned by the commercial bank.

Al-Hassi explained that through commercial banks, there is an attempt to support various strategic projects within the city of Benghazi to stimulate the economy, emphasizing in a message to legislative authorities, governments, and institutions that a good economy cannot exist without a strong banking sector.

Al-Hassi concluded his statement by saying that the bank is responsible for ensuring the secure transfer of currency, with the current security stability no longer being a concern.

Al-Garej Sends Letter to Officials Regarding Obstacles Threatening the Future of Libyan Students in Turkey and Cyprus

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Mohamed Al-Said Al-Garej, head of the Libyan Student Union in Turkey and Cyprus, sent a letter to several officials including the Head of the Audit Bureau, the Prime Minister of the Government of National Unity, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, the Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. The letter addresses the obstacles threatening the future of Libyan students studying in Turkey and Cyprus.

In his letter, Al-Garej stated: “We present this urgent letter after growing frustration over the disregard and unjustified silence towards the challenges faced by Libyan students in Turkey and Cyprus. The problems we face can no longer wait or be delayed, as they threaten the future of a large group of students and their families.”

Key Obstacles Requiring Immediate Action:

  1. Failure to Renew Residency Permits:
    Many students and their families are facing the risk of illegal residency due to the expiration of their permits, with no intervention from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which has failed to act despite the severity of the situation. This neglect will inevitably have dire consequences, affecting not only the students but also the reputation of Libya and its foreign relations.
  2. Unacceptable Delay in Scholarship Payments:
    The prolonged delay in scholarship payments for several months is an irresponsible act concerning the fate of the students. This delay forces them into difficult situations, financially, during tough economic conditions. Continuing this way will lead to the loss of valuable academic talent that could contribute to building the future of the country.
  3. Inadequate Duration of PhD Scholarships:
    PhD students in Turkey and Cyprus are suffering from unrealistic and short scholarship periods, which do not cover the required time to complete their graduate studies. The Ministry of Higher Education reduced the scholarship duration to 36 months instead of 56 months, which contradicts the previous arrangement given to their peers. Some students have already exhausted their funding, and yet their scholarship periods have not been adjusted to allow them to complete their academic journey, hindering their academic progress.
  4. Denial of Master’s Students’ Rights:
    It is unacceptable to deny Master’s students, who completed their studies on time, the opportunity to continue their education and pursue a PhD, despite Libyan laws guaranteeing this right. This unjust deprivation is a clear violation of regulations and must be addressed immediately.

Consequences of Continued Neglect:

Al-Garej stressed that the continued obstacles mean that the Libyan state directly bears responsibility for destroying the future of its youth. He said: “We present this letter as a final notice, as patience has run out and ignoring this situation is no longer an option. If immediate and serious steps are not taken to resolve these issues, we hold the concerned authorities fully responsible for any consequences that may result.”

He concluded by acknowledging the technological progress made by the academic attaché in Turkey and Cyprus through digital transformation that has facilitated many procedures, and urged for this experience to be replicated in other regions, awaiting tangible actions on the ground.

Exclusive: President of the Arab Union Contracting Board Relieves General Manager Abulifa of Duties and Appoints Mohamed Ghoula as Acting Manager

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Our source has obtained a decision from the President of the Board of Directors of the Arab Union Contracting Company, which announces the removal of General Manager Salem Abulifa from his position.

The President of the Board appointed Mohamed Ghoula, a member of the board, to temporarily manage the general manager’s duties until the General Assembly President issues a decision on the matter.

In response to the decision, company employees staged an open sit-in today, protesting the decision made by Khaled Al-Mabrouk, Minister of Finance for the National Unity Government, in his capacity as Chairman of the General Assembly, granting full authority to the General Manager.

Exclusive: President of the Holy Quran Institution Addresses the Audit Bureau Deputy Head Regarding Unlawful Interventions by Shakshak

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Our sourcce has exclusively obtained a letter sent to the Deputy Head of the Audit Bureau from the President of the Holy Quran Institution, detailing what he describes as “unlawful interventions” made by the head of the Audit Bureau, Khaled Shakshak, in the affairs of the Complex.

The letter highlights, among other matters, Shakshak’s request to cover millions in financial expenses and charge them to the Complex’s budget. The President of the Quran Complex urged the Deputy Head of the Audit Bureau to address the consequences of such actions.