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Author: Amira Cherni

Al-Sour Informs Shakshak Again About Halting Negotiations on Developing NC7 Block in Al-Hamada Field

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Our source obtained a communication from the Public Prosecutor to the Head of the Audit Bureau regarding the continuation of judicial measures to halt negotiations on the development of the NC7 block in the Al-Hamada field.

The letter calls for an extension of the investigation into the financial and technical aspects of the project, as well as the extent to which the administration has complied with the observations recorded by the Bureau in this regard.

Shriha: “Report from Global Monitoring Companies Clarifies Libya’s Actual Production for December 2024”

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Engineer Masoud Shriha, in a statement to our source, referred to a report by the Energy Newspaper from the OPEC organization, which stated that Libya’s crude oil production for December was 1.29 million barrels per day. This contradicts the recent statement by the National Oil Corporation, which claimed production was around 1.4 million barrels per day, indicating an increase of about 60,000 barrels per day.

Shriha added that the report also revealed a decrease in Libya’s annual production when comparing 2023 and 2024, showing a drop of around 62,000 barrels per day. The average annual production for 2024 was recorded at 1.105 million barrels per day.

He also mentioned that OPEC reports are highly reliable in financial and business circles, especially within the oil sector, despite some countries being reluctant to share their data.

The report, Shriha explained, is compiled by a committee tasked with monitoring member countries’ adherence to their production quotas, which are set during meetings of OPEC+ ministers. The committee uses various sources, including customs and companies operating in these countries, comparing them with official figures. These reports are presented at OPEC+ meetings to pressure non-compliant countries to adhere to the agreements, in order to control oil prices and prevent their collapse.

He concluded by stating that Libya is not exempt from the production quota system and, despite claims of increased production by official bodies, it will be subject to the same production limits as other countries covered by the agreement that has been in place for over four years.

Al-Akari Questions: “Is the Exchange Rate Increase Justified During This Period?”

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Economic expert Misbah Al-Akari raised questions in a post on his official page regarding the recent increase in the exchange rate, asking whether it has legitimate justifications. He explained that exchange rate hikes typically occur when there is a decrease in the supply of foreign currencies, complex restrictions on accessing foreign currency, political turmoil, or the shutdown of oil fields. However, he emphasized that none of these conditions currently apply.

Al-Akari also questioned whether the Central Bank has the tools to intervene and curb the currency’s depreciation. He affirmed that it does, noting that central banks monitor exchange rates and determine when to intervene to prevent currency weakening. This can involve purchasing large amounts of domestic currency by selling foreign reserves or reassessing exchange rates.

He elaborated on the Libyan context, referencing state reserves, which, according to Audit Bureau reports, amount to over $80 billion. This equates to LYD 455 billion. The current demand for foreign currencies is LYD 170 billion, equivalent to $29.8 billion or 37% of foreign reserves. In most countries, monetary policy tools, particularly interest rates, are used to manage high money supply and ease pressure on foreign currency demand. However, in Libya, this tool is not utilized.

Al-Akari highlighted that the new Central Bank management has adopted measures such as an Islamic finance product called “absolute mudaraba.” This initiative aims to employ surplus funds from commercial banks at the Central Bank, aligning with depositor funds in commercial banks. This measure is expected to absorb a portion of the money supply, reducing pressure on foreign reserves.

He added that developments point to a resolution of barter issues, likely boosting oil revenues as crude prices rise to $80 per barrel.

Al-Akari concluded by noting the growth in oil production, relative security stability, and active reconstruction efforts. He also highlighted upcoming Central Bank decisions, including improved foreign exchange services, payroll withdrawals through electronic payment systems at 60% of salary value, and clarified that he does not believe the dollar’s exchange rate will continue to rise.

Exclusive: Reports of the NOC Chairman Initiating Reforms, Including Reviewing Operations Marred by Violations and Forming a Committee to Audit Waha Oil Company

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Our sources have revealed that the Chairman of the National Oil Corporation, Masoud Suleiman, has issued a directive to review all contracts and services of the Mediterranean Company in Dubai, alongside suspending dealings with the company.

Additionally, he has issued a decision to review operations tainted by administrative and financial violations during the previous period, while forming a committee to audit all activities of the Waha Oil Company.

Exclusive: Al-Qriw: “The Assets Targeted for Investment Under This Decision Amount to Approximately $10 Billion”

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The advisor to the Libyan Investment Authority, Louay Al-Qriw, stated exclusively to our source: “The UN Security Council’s decision allows the LIA to reinvest its financial assets abroad while keeping them frozen, in response to the Authority’s request to invest unutilized cash balances to preserve their value and avoid losses.”

He added: “The decision grants the right to invest unutilized cash either in deposits with banks chosen by the Authority or in bonds, provided they remain frozen. An investment plan containing five requests was submitted, two of which have been approved by the Security Council as an initial phase. The other requests will be resubmitted this year for further discussion.”

Al-Qriw emphasized: “All investment requests submitted by the LIA aim to reinvest the frozen, unutilized funds while keeping them frozen. The Authority has not requested the release of frozen funds but rather proposed a reinvestment plan to maintain their value.”

He further explained: “The assets targeted for investment under this decision amount to approximately $10 billion. These funds will be invested in deposits with foreign banks and government bonds. Additionally, the LIA’s investment policy requires dealing with banks that hold a credit rating of at least BBB.”

Al-Qriw also revealed: “The LIA has contracted with an international consulting firm based in Germany (& Strategy), the advisory arm of PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). This firm will support the Authority’s investment operations.”

In conclusion, the LIA announced a public tender for implementing a new investment system (Murex System), which will ensure the execution of all investment operations efficiently.

Exclusive: Al-Harshaoui: “Bengdara’s Health Issues Are Not the Reason for His Resignation; His Policies Crossed Boundaries”

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Libyan affairs expert at the Royal United Services Institute, Jalel Al-Harshaoui, told our source on Saturday that two or three months ago, there was no decision to remove Farhat from leading the National Oil Corporation. However, recent months have witnessed new developments. Generally, it can be said that Farhat’s policies, whether financial or monetary, within the Corporation and its branches, have crossed boundaries, putting several essential components of the Corporation at risk. As a result, Farhat found himself at a dead end due to a severe shortage of dollars, both within the NOC and the Central Bank.

Al-Harshaoui emphasized that this is why the Dbeibeh and Haftar families stopped supporting him in Tripoli. Meanwhile, pressure from Abdullah Qadirbouh, the head of the Audit Bureau, increased on Farhat. At the same time, Abu Dhabi remained passive and stopped providing him support. Consequently, Farhat collapsed. While his health problems are very real, they were also present three or four months ago, meaning they are not the new factor explaining his downfall, according to Al-Harshaoui.

Exclusive: Shriha: “Facts Behind the National Oil Corporation’s Numbers Amid Absence of Oversight Bodies and Growing Public Awareness of Relevant Issues”

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Oil expert Masoud Shriha stated in an exclusive comment to our source that there is a significant contradiction in the figures declared by the National Oil Corporation on various occasions. He noted that this inconsistency undermines the credibility and transparency of the Corporation, adding, as the saying goes, “They tried to fix it but made it worse.”

The oil expert referred to a letter published in local newspapers from the NOC, dated September 2023, addressed to Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, discussing the fuel subsidy budget and inflation, which, according to the letter, amounted to $12.9 billion. The letter indicated that the cost of fuel allocated to power plants was $8.5 billion.

In response, another letter published in local newspapers from the General Electricity Company, addressed to the Energy Council, denied the aforementioned amount and stated that the cost did not exceed $6.5 billion.

Shariha further pointed out that the NOC’s latest statement claimed that total fuel subsidy deductions, including electricity company consumption for 2023, amounted to only $8.7 billion. This indicates a discrepancy of approximately $4 billion from the amount mentioned in the letter to the Prime Minister, and an additional $2 billion compared to the figure reported by the electricity company. The fate and expenditure of this missing amount remain unclear.

The expert highlighted the inconsistency of selling gas to the Italian partner while importing diesel from global markets, despite the possibility of supplying gas locally, as stated by the NOC. He noted that the average gas price in Europe is around €35 per megawatt-hour, while the average diesel price is approximately $700 per metric ton. This results in a loss of about $20 per oil-equivalent barrel in favor of the Italian partner. Gas is sold to the partner while diesel is imported at a loss to operate Libya’s power plants. This calculation excludes indirect costs such as transportation and storage. It is worth noting that Brega Oil Marketing Company had previously announced a reduction in power plant consumption by 18% to 30%.

The oil expert also questioned the revenue figures for royalties and taxes from the mentioned companies for 2019, as no details were provided.

Additionally, he expressed surprise at the lack of mention of losses due to shutdowns, except for the quantities lost. Similarly, the decline in oil prices between 2023 and 2024, amounting to $1.86 per barrel, was noted without providing actual value figures. Furthermore, there was no explanation for why Libyan crude was sold at a discount of at least $1.5 per barrel compared to competitive Arabian Light Crude prices in Mediterranean markets, as referenced in the Motor Oil company report.

The expert concluded by saying, “It is clear that official entities rely on data analysis derived from social media platforms, reflecting an increasing public awareness of issues directly affecting their livelihood and their children’s future.”

He added, “Popular oversight, in the absence of regulatory bodies, is the only solution to achieve justice,” calling on the Attorney General and the judiciary to address the people’s demands, as they are integral to society and its future.

Exclusive: Due to Flaws and Unfair Competition Between Companies, Abu Shiha Revokes All Trademark Issuance Decisions

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Our source has exclusively obtained a decision by the Deputy Minister of Economy, Suhail Abu Shiha, to revoke all acceptance decisions issued by the Trademark Office. The decision also prohibits the Office’s Director from taking any actions regarding the trademarks mentioned in the decision.

The decision revealed evidence that the Trademark Office accepted trademark applications during a suspension period for filing decisions and issued acceptance decisions, impacting the legal status of approval and rejection decisions for trademarks filed during the announced period.

Abu Shiha confirmed that this constitutes a fundamental flaw in all rejection decisions regarding similarity or identicality with trademarks filed between April 2 and September 1, 2024, which amounts to unfair competition among companies.

Al-Hassi Comments on Qaderbouh’s Decision to Halt Public Sector Appointments and Contracts

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The former Head of the Administrative Control Authority, Abdul Salam Al-Hassi, emphasized the vital role of regulatory bodies in general, and the Administrative Control Authority in particular, in addressing administrative and financial violations that harm the public interest and public funds. This role aligns with the authority’s founding law, which grants it the power to review and examine existing laws, decisions, and regulations as stipulated in Article 25 of its establishment law.

He added that while the authority’s measures should align with its legally mandated powers to gain acceptance and respect from all, there are serious reasons cited in the publication. Nevertheless, he acknowledged the existence of violations in appointment decisions issued by many entities under its supervision.

Al-Hassi noted, however, that the decision conflicts with Article 50 of Law No. 20 for the year 2013, which established the Administrative Control Authority. This article outlines the procedures the authority must follow when dealing with decisions issued by entities subject to its oversight.

He pointed out that the Cabinet, ministries, and affiliated entities are required to submit copies of their meeting minutes and decisions to the authority immediately after issuance. These entities must also send the authority copies of correspondence that grant benefits, impose financial obligations, or result in changes to powers or legal statuses.

He concluded by stating that if the authority finds that the decisions referred to it by supervised entities violate applicable legislation, it should challenge these decisions in administrative courts. Filing such a challenge automatically suspends the execution of the contested decision until a final ruling is issued.

Exclusive: Al-Harati Stresses the Need to Return the National Oil Corporation to Its Natural Course Based on Good Governance and Independence

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Legal advisor, Hisham Al-Harati, stated exclusively to our source: “The National Oil Corporation must be returned to its natural course based on the principles of good governance and institutional independence to ensure the sustainable management of oil resources efficiently.”

He added: “This is essential to confront the looming economic risks and ensure the continuity of state revenues in a transparent manner that supports stability and sustainable development.”

Ashnibish Writes: “The Libyan Economy – Reality and Challenges”

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In a recent article, Anas Ashnibish examined the state of the Libyan economy, describing it as a rentier economy that heavily relies on a single, finite resource—oil. This resource serves as the primary source of funding for the public budget and all economic sectors. Libya’s economy is among the least diversified in the region, particularly compared to neighboring countries and other oil-producing nations. Oil accounts for more than 65% of the gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices, while the economy is highly exposed to external markets, both in imports and exports.

Oil export revenues constitute about 97% of Libya’s total exports. At the same time, the country imports no less than 85% of its local market needs. The public sector is the primary source of employment, with nearly 3 million government employees—a staggering ratio compared to the total population, making it the highest globally. Moreover, the state plays a near-total role in providing infrastructure-related services, subsidies, and wages.

The inefficient allocation of economic resources, excessive consumption rates, and inequitable wealth distribution have led to the emergence of “disguised unemployment.” While the country has a high percentage of youth, it suffers from a limited skilled workforce due to the mismatch between educational outputs and labor market needs.

These characteristics of the Libyan economy have had negative repercussions on achieving local and sectoral development, particularly amid political and security instability. This instability further hampers efforts to support and advance the economy. Progress can only be achieved through economic policies grounded in transparency, anti-corruption efforts, and collaborative teamwork.

The unique features of the national economy have, in recent years, exacerbated the challenges it faces, especially in managing economic, financial, monetary, trade, and investment policies. The key challenges include:

  1. Delayed return to stability.
  2. Political and institutional division at all levels.
  3. Overreliance on oil revenues to fund economic activities.
  4. Severe inefficiencies in public financial management.
  5. Dominance of current expenditures over investment spending.
  6. High government subsidy costs.
  7. Lack of comprehensive and reliable data.

The Independent: Libyan Oil Under Threat Again… Here Are the Details

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The Arabic Independent newspaper reported on Thursday that Libya’s oil industry in 2025 shows promising opportunities despite ongoing threats in a country torn by political disputes and divided between two governments in the east and west. Libya’s crude oil production in 2024 exceeded its target by more than 17,000 barrels, reflecting the sector’s recovery.

According to the Independent, official data from the National Oil Corporation and the Central Bank of Libya indicate that 2024 concluded with crude oil production reaching 1.417 million barrels per day and 1.469 million barrels including condensates. The country’s oil sales and royalties last year amounted to about 90 billion dinars ($18.16 billion), despite a $6.4 billion decline compared to 2023 due to production shutdowns, lower average oil prices, and increased fuel imports.

Oilfield Blockades:
The newspaper noted that while last year saw tangible progress in production after months of political blockades on oilfields, clashes in Al-Zawiya west of Tripoli near the end of 2024 and the subsequent declaration of force majeure following damage to the country’s largest refinery have raised new challenges.

Despite this, the outlook for growth in Libya’s oil industry appears favorable. The NOC plans to launch a licensing round for 22 areas in the first quarter of 2025, aiming to attract new investments in onshore and offshore exploration. The target is to boost production to 2 million barrels per day, with major international oil companies such as Italy’s Eni, Spain’s Repsol, the UK’s BP, and Algeria’s Sonatrach resuming exploration after a decade-long hiatus.

Return of International Oil Companies:
Spain’s Repsol has joined the growing list of international oil producers returning to Libya after a ten-year absence. The company recently drilled its first exploratory well after receiving security assurances from the Libyan National Army and the NOC.

Libya’s Political Struggles:
The newspaper highlighted that, despite Libya’s position as the holder of Africa’s largest proven oil reserves—estimated at 48 billion barrels by the U.S. Energy Information Administration—its oil production has faced years of volatility due to political instability. Achieving the NOC’s target of 2 million barrels per day in 2025 depends on insulating the sector from Libya’s political conflicts.

Libyan oil analyst Mohamed El-Shahati told the Independent that achieving 1.4 million barrels per day by the end of 2024 is commendable and required significant effort. However, he warned that delays in sector investments could slow production growth in the coming years, jeopardizing future goals. Shahati expressed hope that production might reach an average of 1.6 million barrels per day by the end of 2025, despite challenges such as declining oil prices, forecasted at an average of $72 per barrel, and a lack of financial liquidity this year.

Highest Growth Rate in the Arab World:
In an interview with the Independent, Osama Mansour, the Islamic Development Bank Group’s representative in Libya, stated that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Libya’s economy to grow by 13.7% in 2025, marking the highest growth rate among Arab countries. This growth is driven primarily by a rebound in the oil sector.

Mansour pointed out that Libya possesses the largest proven oil reserves in Africa, along with significant natural gas reserves, making it a key player in the global energy market. However, he cautioned that the heavy reliance on oil, accounting for about 95% of exports and 60% of GDP, poses a major challenge to the country’s economy.

Exclusive: Husni Bey Comments on Central Bank and NOC Statement as a Wake-Up Call, and Questions the Appropriate Exchange Rate to Avoid Budget Deficit

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Libyan businessman Husni Bey told our source: “Through following the page The Economic Salon, which is a non-governmental organization and civil society entity focused on economic matters, and observing the discussions, reactions, and critiques of the circulars issued by the Central Bank of Libya (CBL), it’s clear we are hearing alarm bells.”

He added:
“The response from the National Oil Corporation (NOC) attributing the low revenues in 2024 to several reasons includes:

  • Oil shutdowns due to political issues.
  • Rising fuel costs and exchange agreements.
  • The lack of a budget representing fuel and energy allocations.”

Husni Bey commented with numerical analysis, stating: “The CBL’s circular and the NOC’s response regarding the reasons for the decline in cash flows from oil sales represent a wake-up call or an opportunity to raise public awareness and demand change.”

He further said: “There is no disagreement that deep distortions threaten Libya and its people, as reflected in the growing fuel bill, according to the NOC’s statement, especially after the adoption of barter programs since 2020 and earlier.”

Continuing, he noted: “The Central Bank sounds the alarm, and the NOC issues warnings; both are correct from their respective perspectives. The root cause of what is happening is the failure of the House of Representatives and the Government of National Unity to approve a budget that includes all revenue and expenditure items, covering total oil production and expenditures, including fuel and energy. The government must present a budget, and the House of Representatives must approve one that sets limits on government spending.”

He emphasized: “Expenditures, in any form, must not exceed total revenues from all sources. In my view, resistance to changing the mechanism and system of energy and fuel subsidies, which consume 38% of Libya’s oil production share after deducting the 12% share of foreign companies, is a priority for any attempt at fiscal reform.”

He added: “Our mindset as Libyans calls for change, but our hearts insist on maintaining the status quo—even as the purchasing power of the dinar collapses, inflation rises, and subsidies are stolen or smuggled. Strangely, we all aspire to and demand better results and different outcomes using the same inputs and mechanisms unchanged for 50 years. We even reject changes, starting with substituting subsidies with cash to achieve fair distribution. We fail to recognize that the fuel bill approaches $14 billion, costing each Libyan family about $12,000 annually or 5,500 LYD monthly.”

Husni Bey continued: “It was a general shock when the NOC transferred $500 million to the government’s account at the Central Bank compared to the significantly higher dollar sales made by the Central Bank. Everyone is asking, ‘What’s going on?’ Personally, I believe the only change is the rising fuel bill, which reduces net dollar revenues transferred to the CBL. The explanation in numbers is as follows:

  • The $500 million transferred by the NOC covers oil sales for only eight days.
  • If the transfer continues at the same value ($500 million every eight days), the total annual amount transferred by the NOC would approximate $22.8 billion in 2025.
  • Monthly transfers of $1.9 billion by the NOC to the CBL do not include fuel and energy costs.
  • Fuel and energy barter agreements internally amount to $375 million monthly ($4.5 billion annually) or 12% of Libya’s oil and gas production share.
  • Monthly transfers of $1.9 billion from the NOC to the CBL exclude $750 million monthly for barter and fuel and energy agreements, totaling $9 billion annually or 25% of Libya’s oil production share.”

He summarized: “Libya’s annual oil and gas revenues amount to $36.3 billion, distributed as follows:

  • $22.8 billion transferred to the CBL.
  • $4.5 billion for local and external fuel and gas barter agreements.
  • $9.0 billion for external oil and gas barter agreements.”

Husni Bey posed critical questions:

  • “Do we accept that $13.5 billion (37.3% of Libya’s share) is wasted through excessive consumption, legitimized theft, and smuggling?
  • Does the monthly $1.9 billion or annual $22.8 billion suffice to cover 93% of the remaining public expenditure after subsidy costs, at an exchange rate of 4.850, 5.500, or 6.000?
  • What is the appropriate exchange rate that should be adopted to prevent the budget from being financed by deficits, thus avoiding further collapse?”

Exclusive: Al-Ghwil Lists Reasons for Delayed Transfers of Oil Revenues from the National Oil Corporation to the Central Bank

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Presidential candidate and economic expert Mohamed Al-Ghwil stated to our source regarding the delay in transferring revenues from the National Oil Corporation to the Central Bank of Libya, saying: “One of the reasons is the exchange of crude oil for products (diesel and gasoline). I believe the NOC should commit to providing detailed monthly reports on this, as well as reports for previous years.”

Al-Ghwil clarified that among the reasons is the annual increase in exchanges and the need to review the terms of contracts for selling Libyan crude oil to ensure that payment periods for shipments are reduced to no more than three weeks from the shipping date. He also mentioned the lack of attention to monthly settlements between the NOC and the General Electricity Company.

He added: “It is unclear to the public whether there are revenues deposited in the accounts of the Libyan Foreign Bank and its subsidiaries that have not been transferred to the general revenue account (the Public Treasury) at the Central Bank of Libya. Similarly, it is unclear whether there have been recent restrictive measures imposed by the U.S. Treasury on transfers to the CBL’s accounts in recent months.”

Al-Ghwil concluded by noting: “These reasons are assumptions, and some may prove to be correct.”

Al-Akkari Questions: “Why Is Only One Entity Allowed to Issue Reports and Clarify the Truth to Society While Using Part of Its Reserves to Mitigate Parallel Market Risks?!”

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Former member of the Central Bank of Libya’s Exchange Rate Committee, Misbah Al-Akkari, expressed his concerns on his official Facebook page:

“With the price of oil at $80 per barrel, the National Oil Corporation reports a production of 1.4 million barrels per day, while the Central Bank has supplied $1.3 billion to the market for various purposes within just 14 days. Meanwhile, the parallel market exchange rate stands at 6.6 LYD per dollar.”

He added:
“Logic indicates there is a problem. The first issue lies in the deposit of oil revenues to the Central Bank, as it is unreasonable that only $500 million was deposited in half a month.

The second and far more critical problem is the absence of a real deterrent force to confront criminals in the currency market.

The third issue concerns those applying to purchase foreign currency for a specific purpose but then using it for speculation instead.”

Al-Akkari continued:
“Why is it that only one entity issues reports, clarifies the truth to the public, and uses part of its reserves to mitigate the risks of the parallel market while everyone else watches as if the matter doesn’t concern them?!”

He proposed solutions, urging the state to act promptly with the following measures:

  1. Parliament should urgently pass a law criminalizing the sale of foreign currency outside the legal framework.
  2. The government, through the Ministry of Economy, should issue directives to ban the entry of goods into the country unless foreign currency was obtained through official channels.
  3. Security agencies, in cooperation with the banking sector, should investigate a sample of foreign currency recipients to verify the purpose of the funds and trace how they are used, penalizing any violations.
  4. Awareness campaigns should target both traders and citizens, emphasizing the severe harm caused by currency speculation during this period, which will ultimately result in significant losses for everyone involved.