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Author: Amira Cherni

Exclusive: Al-Kanouni Comments on Correspondence Among Experts Regarding Libya’s Public Financial Challenges

The financial and economic expert, Sameh Al-Kanouni, spoke exclusively to our source about correspondence among experts regarding Libya’s public financial challenges. He stated, “This is entirely accurate and 100% true.”

He added: “I am not pessimistic, but when I see several global oil companies changing their names to energy companies, it raises concerns about the future of oil. These companies are shifting to renewable energy, such as wind and solar power. In 20 years, oil might become marginal, with limited demand confined to industries using heavy oil. Meanwhile, electric cars, phones, and Tesla products, for instance, are powered by renewable energy sources like solar.”

He continued: “We must reduce spending and shift toward investment. I hope recommendations and plans are included when discussing these issues. When addressing a challenge, alternatives should be presented. One key step is encouraging the Investment Authority, reforming the investment law, and transforming it into a Ministry of Promotion and Investment, granting it the authority and strength to attract investors to Libya.”

Al-Kanouni also highlighted the need to revise and update some economic laws to align with the country’s current situation, amend certain Central Bank of Libya regulations, and establish sovereign and investment funds to promote domestic investment. He called for the activation of the stock market and support for local industries in Libya.

He further stated: “Libya’s deteriorating economic conditions are shared by other nations, such as Tunisia, Italy, Turkey, and Egypt.”

He concluded: “I wish these recommendations had been issued years ago. However, it was a courageous step by the meeting participants to convene and provide indicators to decision-makers across all sectors. They proposed measures for spending control and standards. The state must prioritize essential goods for citizens and activate the municipal guard to regulate prices and balance the Libyan market.”

Under the Patronage of the Human Dialogue Center, Experts Deliver Important Message on Libya’s Economic Situation, with Participation from Economic Salon Members

A group of economic and financial experts, including ten members from the Economic Salon organization out of seventeen, consisting of: Dr. Abubakr Abu Al-Aid Abulqasim, Mr. Hamuda Al-Aswad, Mr. Mrajea Gaith, Dr. Abdelghani Al-Fatissi, Dr. Fathi Al-Majbari, Eng. Mohamed Khaled Al-Ghweil, Dr. Mohamed Ben Yousef, Dr. Suleiman Al-Shahoumi, Mr. Mohamed Al-Shukri, and Dr. Ezzeddine Ashour, have issued an important message about the Libyan state’s financial challenges, under the sponsorship of the Human Dialogue Center.

Regarding the current economic situation:

Anyone who cares about the Libyan people must speak the whole truth to them. Therefore, speeches of evasion and aligning with the distortions in the economic situation only serve narrow interests and are a gamble with the country and its future generations.

The standard of living has declined over the last decade, with poverty rates increasing and the per capita share of GDP shrinking, alongside a significant rise in actual inflation rates, unemployment, and the erosion of citizens’ savings. The large disparity in economic opportunities between citizens threatens political instability due to the accumulation of feelings of marginalization, whether real or imagined. This becomes even more likely when such feelings are combined with regional and social narratives of marginalization.

The overall financial indicators have reached levels that threaten financial sustainability and undermine efforts toward stability. Therefore, it is necessary to begin a comprehensive program for restructuring the Libyan economy.

Institutional divisions, both horizontal and vertical, have increased the confusion in managing the country’s economic and financial affairs. Regardless of the proposed temporary solutions, they cannot replace the need for unifying administrative and financial decisions by bringing all political institutions together and renewing their legitimacy through general elections.

Regarding the general budget:

The general budget of the state is supposed to reflect a strategic vision and be a tool for financing, oversight, and monitoring. Unfortunately, it is currently only used for current expenditures, which undermines its effectiveness and weakens its political and social credibility.

There is a need for a unified budget covering all government expenditure items across all regions of Libya. Despite all possible reservations, a unified budget remains better than any other financial arrangements.

The budget should be realistic, taking into account expected needs and revenues. It should also be based on macroeconomic and sectoral quantitative and qualitative indicators, ensuring the possibility of monitoring and evaluation within the framework of fiscal policy. The absence of economic indicators in general budgets reflects a regrettable approach to public funds with an exploitative mindset.

Regarding revenues:

All public entities tasked with collecting public revenues must do so. No entity should retain or deduct any part of these revenues for any reason or transfer them to other entities without legal authority.

All proceeds from the sale of oil, gas, and petroleum derivatives, as well as all other sovereign revenues, should be deposited, without exception, and on time into the general revenue account of the Ministry of Finance.

In a country that primarily relies on oil revenues, the National Oil Corporation must disclose detailed monthly data about its exports, the quantity of each type of crude oil, the selling price, the foreign partner’s share, and the share of the public treasury.

Regarding expenditure controls and standards:

The government and the National Oil Corporation must urgently end the practice of bartering oil shipments to meet local market fuel needs. These needs should be accurately determined and supplied according to the required quantities. The National Oil Corporation should contract with global refineries through transparent procedures. Both the National Oil Corporation and the General Electricity Company must conduct monthly reconciliations to determine the actual supply of gas, crude oil, and its derivatives to the company.

For economic and security reasons related to stability in Libya, fuel subsidies should be restructured in accordance with a studied and gradual policy that provides a social safety net and enhances citizens’ purchasing power, while first gaining their trust through communication, transparency, and disclosure.

Rationalizing expenditures on salaries and subsidies may be inherently harsh and painful for some social groups. However, the state must adopt a policy of truth with citizens and stop the practice of appeasing public opinion for the benefit of narrow interests.

In terms of rationalizing expenditures, the following measures should be implemented in the 2025 budget:

  • Cease government appointments and salary increases throughout 2025 to allow for an accurate census of public employees and identification of actual needs.
  • Issue a unified salary schedule that considers the cost of living and ensures a reasonable balance between higher and lower grades.
  • Review the inflation of some budget items, such as subsistence, accommodation, and vehicle purchases.
  • Reduce the number of government agencies funded by the general budget by merging public institutions with similar goals.
  • Reduce the number of Libyan embassies and diplomatic missions abroad and their staff.
  • Cease spending large sums of public money on social issues like marriage without proper economic and field studies showing the impact on the targeted groups.

We urge the relevant authorities to activate and support the following institutions for their vital roles in economic development: the Civil Registry Authority, the Real Estate Registry, the Statistics and Census Authority, the Tax Authority, the Urban Planning Authority, the Public Property Authority, and Customs.

Priority in development should be given to energy, electricity, basic social services, and infrastructure projects. In all cases, financial allocations for targeted projects should include their names, geographic distribution, value, and required cash flows over the execution period.

We emphasize adherence to the rule of not transferring funds from the third section (development) to other sections in the general budget.

Regarding monitoring and evaluating the budget implementation:

The signatories of this message are aware that the general budget includes structural facts that are sometimes difficult to overcome, such as the inflation of public employee numbers, the reliance of many citizens on subsidies, and the widespread corruption in administration. However, they are also aware that addressing these structural distortions and combating corruption takes time and requires determination, planning, and design to avoid turning good intentions into ill-conceived and poorly studied decisions that fuel conflicts.

All public entities should be subject to monitoring by oversight bodies, which enhances transparency and governance.

We emphasize that all public entities issue monthly reports on revenues and expenses, as well as reports on the progress of development projects, their costs, and any increases or savings in funds and time.

The Audit Bureau and the Administrative Control Authority should issue quarterly reports on the expenditure of development allocations, in addition to the annual report in the first half of the following year to address violations before they worsen.

All state institutions must close their final accounts, which allows for determining their financial position and identifying obligations and debts to the public treasury.

Regarding accompanying reform measures:

We urge the legislative and executive institutions and expert houses to review all legislation related to the state’s financial and economic system. These reviews must be conducted in a systematic and consultative manner to ensure their smooth implementation.

Until that happens, institutions must adhere to current legislation in their financial management according to principles of cooperation and professionalism that should prevail between state institutions.

A population census and basic surveys should be conducted to provide sufficient indicators to guide economic decisions and their appropriate timing.

Economic and financial data should be provided and published, enhancing their inclusiveness and reliability.

Resources should be allocated to municipalities, granting them the authority to spend them on their defined development priorities.

Priority in public procurement and contracts should be given to the Libyan private sector.

The public treasury should not bear any financial obligations that are not included in the general budget. The Ministry of Finance should efficiently manage the state’s assets from public companies and sovereign funds, maximizing their revenues and ensuring they are not diverted outside the general budget.

Procedural steps for adopting the budget:

If the economic situation is exceptional, the upcoming year’s budget should also be dealt with exceptionally to ensure its adoption, compliance, and smooth implementation. This requires wide political agreements among the key parties and active communication between technical bodies and the relevant political institutions.

The Central Bank of Libya must maintain its independence and work within its legally defined responsibilities to ensure its professionalism and neutrality. The relationship with the Ministries of Finance and Economy should be arranged so that each can implement its powers without overlap.

In conclusion, dealing with economic challenges seriously and responsibly requires launching a comprehensive political process that integrates its various paths without delay or postponement from the UN mission. If Libya needs a solid national charter between its political and social components, it also requires a deep dialogue about the desired economic model that should guide the work of all institutions and address the root causes of repeated conflicts.

Exclusive: The Audit Bureau’s Deputy Director Refers a Notice from a Citizen Regarding the Disqualification of Shakshak as Head of the Bureau… Legal Department Responds by Declaring Its Lack of Value

Our source has obtained a notice referred by the Deputy Director of the Audit Bureau, Atiyat-Allah Abdulkareem, to the Bureau’s Legal Affairs Office. The notice was received by a process server from an unidentified citizen, who claims that Khaled Shakshak is no longer the Head of the Audit Bureau. The citizen bases this claim on rulings issued by the Tripoli Court of Appeals.

In response, the Legal Affairs Office stated that this notice holds no value and has no basis in reality or law, noting that the rulings mentioned had been overturned and annulled by the Supreme Court.

The Bureau’s Legal Affairs Office confirmed that the legitimacy of its head is derived from rulings by the Constitutional and Administrative Divisions of the Supreme Court, as well as decisions from both the House of Representatives and the State Council, which extended his term as head of the Bureau according to the provisions of the Political Agreement.

Canadian Newspaper: Violence in Zawiya Threatens the City’s Infrastructure

The Canadian newspaper Toronto Star reported on Sunday that recent clashes in the city of Zawiya have caused fires at the oil refinery as armed groups vied for control. These disturbances highlight the ongoing instability in Libya since the fall of Gaddafi in 2011, leaving residents trapped and roads blocked, with a state of force majeure declared amid the chaos.

The newspaper confirmed that the exact reason behind the clashes for control of the oil refinery remains unclear. However, it underscores the recurrent conflict in western Libya, dominated by armed factions. This region, under the control of the Government of National Unity, remains a hotspot for violence.

The report noted that the violence has caused significant damage to Zawiya’s oil refinery, with fires threatening gas leaks and the city’s infrastructure.

The Toronto Star further stated that the clashes have led to the closure of main roads and prompted the National Oil Corporation to declare a state of emergency due to the turmoil.

Exclusive: Commenting on Experts’ Letter Regarding Libya’s Public Financial Challenges, Sanussi Says: “Libya’s Problems Cannot Be Solved with Proposals and Recommendations”

Economic expert Mohamed Sanussi, in an exclusive statement to our source, commented on the letter presented by several experts addressing Libya’s public financial challenges. He stated, “First, we must thank everyone who tries to contribute with their knowledge and expertise to solving Libya’s problems. However, generally speaking, Libya’s problems cannot be solved by presenting proposals and recommendations alone. They can only be addressed by appointing the right person in the right position, free from quotas and favoritism. Officials must be chosen based on competence, not loyalty.”

He added, “Why do we see experts offering advice to solve problems while those in power lack the expertise? There will be no common language between those proposing solutions and those tasked with implementing them. Many officials lack the qualifications necessary to understand and execute the recommendations.”

Sanussi further noted, “As for the letter, there are some weaknesses, the most notable being that some recommendations are unimplementable without fundamental institutional changes, which seem impossible given the current political climate.”

He continued, “Additionally, the letter did not address mechanisms for coordinating the implementation of recommendations between various institutions, nor did it outline priorities or a phased approach to execution.”

Sanussi concluded, “Those in power must hold regular meetings with experts and qualified individuals to develop a clear roadmap with a timeline that sets priorities and execution methods. Corruption must be addressed by improving oversight, starting with combating corruption in regulatory bodies, and appointing qualified individuals rather than those who attained their positions through quotas.”

Misbah Al-Akari: “Under These Conditions, the Liquidity Problem Will Be Fully Resolved by 2025”

Former member of the Central Bank of Libya’s Exchange Rate Committee, Misbah Al-Akari, stated: “The liquidity problem will be fully resolved by 2025 provided that all stakeholders (citizens, the private sector, and government entities) commit to using alternative payment tools, which have already become widely available and are expected to grow even further in 2025. This will be supported by additional incentives, such as significantly reducing fees and enabling citizens to use up to 60% of their salaries via these tools when due.

Al-Akari added: “When everyone commits to adopting this modern approach to transactions, the long queues of humiliation will become a thing of the past. These tools will ensure fairness, eliminate favoritism in cash withdrawals, and curb the financing of currency speculators, which has led to a 35% discrepancy in the Libyan dinar’s exchange rate on the investment side.

Clarifying the steps for implementing these modern tools, Al-Akari explained: “Activating the unrestricted Mudarabah (Islamic finance product) will allow commercial banks to invest their excess funds with the Central Bank, increasing their revenues and enabling them to further reduce fees for their clients. Additionally, this product will provide commercial banks the opportunity to open investment accounts and restricted Mudarabah products for their customers, creating an investment-friendly environment. Citizens and business owners will be able to utilize such products to grow their funds. These investments will have significant positive effects not only for the investors themselves but also for the Libyan economy as a whole. Moreover, these investments will help absorb a considerable portion of the money supply, the primary driver of foreign currency price increases.

Al-Akari further noted that by 2025, after mitigating and eventually resolving the liquidity problem and expanding electronic services to reduce congestion at banks, the banks will be well-positioned to return to their fundamental role as financial intermediaries. They will then be able to offer loans and facilities for both small and large-scale projects, contributing to greater diversification of the Libyan economy through these financial tools.

The insistence of the Central Bank of Libya on the shift to electronic transactions, which is supported by all experts and specialists in this field, is due to the following reasons:

  1. Electronic payment tools directly eliminate the need for paper currency except in limited contexts.
  2. This transformation reduces overcrowding at banks.
  3. It enables banking services to be accessed from home or the office without visiting a bank.
  4. It puts an end to corruption associated with cash withdrawal operations.
  5. It provides statistical data that can be used for studies relevant to the national economy.

Libya Ranked Lowest Globally as Foreign Investments Decline: Deloitte Reveals Details

The international professional services network Deloitte, headquartered in London, released a report titled “The Imperatives of a National Vision for Libya” on Saturday. The report highlighted that Libya’s economy, heavily reliant on its vast oil reserves, experiences significant volatility driven mainly by global oil price fluctuations and recurring political instability.

According to Deloitte, the discovery of oil in the late 1950s transformed Libya into a resource-rich nation. However, this wealth came at the cost of heavy dependence, making the country vulnerable to market and geopolitical forces. This dependence contrasts sharply with the more diversified economic approaches of regional counterparts, who, despite similar hydrocarbon abundance, have achieved notable strides in sectors like tourism, finance, and technology.

The report emphasized that Libya’s short- and medium-term economic outlook remains dominated by hydrocarbon production dynamics and local political stability. Unlike its regional peers, Libya has not followed steady economic growth or diversification trajectories. Instead, its GDP has fluctuated unpredictably, with the oil and gas sector continuing to overshadow potential growth areas such as agriculture, tourism, transportation, and logistics.

Deloitte further noted that these challenges have hindered adaptability, preventing the economy from stabilizing or leveraging other local advantages amidst global economic shifts. While Libya’s GDP is expected to grow by around 8% by the end of 2024, driven by oil production, achieving a target of 1.5 million barrels per day by 2026 heavily depends on political stability.

In comparison, global counterparts with fewer natural resources, such as Singapore, have flourished through strategic diversification, focusing on human capital development and technology. According to Deloitte, Libya’s potential in non-oil sectors remains largely untapped.

The report also pointed out that neighboring countries have made positive progress in the Logistics Performance Index, while Libya’s ranking has plummeted to the lowest globally.

Deloitte explained that Libya’s limited economic diversity and foreign investment opportunities have been heavily influenced by its poor ranking in the Logistics Performance Index and the state of its infrastructure. The country lags behind its neighbors due to bureaucratic bottlenecks, complex regulatory frameworks, and concerns over political stability, all of which create a restrictive business environment. These challenges are starkly evident in global logistics performance indicators, where Libya ranks lowest worldwide. Such factors deter foreign investment and hinder the development of new sectors, as procedural bureaucracy and operational challenges diminish opportunities for both local entrepreneurs and foreign investors.

The company highlighted that infrastructure quality—including transportation, logistics services, airports, seaports, and road networks—is critical for economic diversification and attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). Libya’s current infrastructure, weakened by years of political conflict, lacks modernization and broad accessibility. In contrast, neighboring countries have invested heavily in these areas, achieving advanced logistical solutions and robust foundational frameworks, thereby enhancing their global economic competitiveness.

Deloitte stated that crafting a national vision for Libya requires a comprehensive strategic approach that addresses critical areas for growth and stability. A key potential goal is economic diversification and reducing oil dependency to build a strong and resilient economy. This shift would involve investing in education to create a workforce prepared for the demands of a diversified economy. Additionally, improving infrastructure is on the agenda to enhance Libya’s connectivity domestically and internationally, which is essential for trade and economic expansion.

Furthermore, prioritizing advancements in technology and healthcare is crucial to improving living standards and streamlining business operations. Once a clear ambition is set, moving from planning to action becomes imperative. At this critical juncture, establishing strong governance structures and a dedicated unit to monitor strategy implementation becomes essential.

According to Deloitte, governance structures would ensure compliance and enhance decision-making protocols. Meanwhile, the tracking unit would monitor progress meticulously and provide real-time insights necessary to maintain strategic flexibility and respond to emerging challenges or opportunities. Together, these frameworks would ensure that initiatives consistently align with overarching goals and facilitate swift adjustments to tactics and strategies as needed. Striking a balance between governance and monitoring is pivotal in guiding Libya’s journey toward its envisioned milestones, ensuring not only progress but also the resilience and integrity of the vision’s execution.

Anadolu Agency Reveals Resumption of Turkish Airlines Flights to This City

Turkish Airlines announced it will resume flights between Benghazi and Istanbul starting next year.

According to Anadolu Agency, the airline had suspended its flights to Benghazi a decade ago due to internal unrest but will resume operations on January 14, 2025.

The Turkish agency confirmed that Turkish Airlines will operate three flights per week on this route.

Additionally, the agency noted that Turkish Airlines had earlier announced plans to resume flights from Istanbul to the Libyan capital, Tripoli, starting March 2024, following a 10-year hiatus.

Al-Akari: Causes and Solutions Regarding the Circulation of Over 70 Billion Dinars in Cash Outside the Banking System

The economic expert, Misbah Al-Akari, wrote an article in which he stated: “An amount of cash exceeding 70 billion Libyan dinars is circulating in the local market outside the banking system. This massive amount has become subject to trading in a very peculiar phenomenon referred to as “burning.”

The rise in government spending, which surpassed 84 billion dinars—of which 57 billion is allocated to salaries—has necessitated the availability of rapid payment tools to avoid further financial complications, including the ongoing liquidity issue. Addressing this challenge requires introducing the payment tools available in the Libyan banking system, which include:

  • RTGS (Real-Time Gross Settlement) system: Allows transferring unlimited amounts between customer accounts for transactions exceeding 10,000 dinars.
  • ACH (Automated Clearing House) system: Functions similarly to RTGS but is used for transactions below 10,000 dinars.
  • Certified checks: Up to 250,000 dinars.
  • Electronic and traditional checks: Electronic checks are preferred due to their fast clearance (within 24 hours), while traditional checks are being phased out.
  • Internal transfers within the same branch: Upon customer request.
  • Electronic payment methods.
  • Bank cards: Issued by Libyan banks, usable at ATMs and POS devices. With the activation of the Off-US service, all bank cards can be used across different banks’ ATMs and POS devices.
  • Banking apps: Available at all banks, offering various services such as money transfers, balance checks, transaction history, and card purchases.
  • LY PAY and ONE PAY services: These allow money transfers between customer accounts across banks.

The Central Bank of Libya reported the following results for these payment tools:

  • Number of checks: 2,890,587 checks amounting to 96 billion dinars.
  • Bank cards: 4,754,518 cards with total transactions worth 19.9 billion dinars.
  • App subscribers: 3,111,952 users generating transactions valued at 84.9 billion dinars.
  • POS devices: 72,769 devices.

A total of 121 million electronic transactions were conducted, amounting to 104.9 billion dinars. Meanwhile, cash distribution this year reached 59 billion dinars.

From these figures, it is evident that the solution to the liquidity problem lies in gradually transitioning to alternative payment tools, as detailed above. This would reduce dependence on cash. Currently, cash withdrawn from banks is spent in retail stores and does not return to the banking system. Instead, it becomes a traded commodity, often resold to citizens at a markup of up to 35%.

Despite the governor’s directives for commercial banks to reduce fees to 1–1.5%, Libyan citizens still complain about high fees. This is attributed to clear exploitation by some retailers and non-compliance by certain banks with these instructions.

We urge the Banking Supervision Department to monitor the issue of fees and call on relevant authorities to address the exploitation of excessive fees by some merchants. Strict enforcement can help support this strategic transition to alternative payment methods.”

The Sentry: Dbeibeh and Haftar’s Financial Corruption Threatens Derna with Another Disaster… Here Are the Recommendations

The Sentry organization stated: On September 10, 2023, two dams near the city of Derna in eastern Libya collapsed due to a severe rainstorm, resulting in a flood that claimed the lives of at least 4,352 people and displaced approximately 45,000 others, while 8,000 individuals remain missing and are presumed dead. Since the disaster, journalists and NGOs have highlighted several factors contributing to this collapse, including suspected corruption that may have excessively weakened the dams.

In this report, The Sentry sheds light on these schemes and links them to the leadership of the Dbeibeh family in the organization responsible for developing administrative centers before 2011. It also illustrates how new risks associated with the Haftar family could lead to similar infrastructure failures in the future.

Among the factors contributing to the human and material losses in Derna was the poor condition of the dams. Between 2007 and 2010, the Libyan General Water Authority paid Arsel Construction Limited and other companies for rehabilitation works that were never carried out.

According to the organization, such negligence was part of a broader pattern of corruption that affected most non-oil-related construction and maintenance projects in Libya, especially in the years preceding the 2011 uprisings. Schemes like those involving the maintenance of Derna’s dams were largely executed through the “Administrative Centers Development and Management Authority,” a government entity then controlled by relatives of Abdulhamid Dbeibah, the current Prime Minister in Tripoli, western Libya.

Currently, after the disaster, reconstruction efforts are underway in Derna. In this context, the family of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who governs eastern and southern Libya, has full control over new infrastructure contracts. Initial indicators suggest that the Haftar family may resort to corruption practices similar to those of the Dbeibeh family, potentially using foreign companies as a means to divert public funds.

Despite more than 15 years having passed, irregularities in the dealings between the Administrative Centers Development Authority and Arsel remain highly relevant to Libya today. They demonstrate how officials may have exploited existing companies to siphon off billions in public funds. This cross-border theft technique, or similar methods, may be employed in 2024, a time when large-scale infrastructure projects are being used by Libyan leaders to justify substantial public spending.

By exposing past fraud and scrutinizing current contracting practices, this report aims to contribute to preventing further corruption in Libya’s infrastructure sector, according to the organization.

Suspicious and Deliberate

In November 2007, the General Water Authority (GWA) awarded a $30 million contract to Arsel, a small Turkish company, for the maintenance of Derna’s dams—a decision heavily influenced by the Administrative Centers Development and Management Authority (ACDMA) and its leadership. In the years that followed, and until the 2011 uprisings, Arsel failed to perform any tangible work on Derna’s dams despite receiving regular payments from the Libyan state. This lack of performance can be traced to corruption practices involving ACDMA and its leadership, who benefited from the collusion of other parties involved in the project, including the GWA and Arsel management.

A thorough examination of the project’s negotiations, scope, payment records, and facilitation processes reveals a pattern of irregular behavior and clear signs of corruption. Such illegal practices and systemic failures not only contributed to the Derna disaster in 2023 but also mirrored similar issues that affected dozens of contracts in Libya before 2011, involving numerous foreign companies, many of them Turkish. The common denominator was the family controlling the ACDMA at the time—the Dbeibeh family.

Between 2007 and 2010, ACDMA awarded Arsel approximately 15 projects worth nearly $1 billion, significantly influencing the GWA’s decision to hire Arsel for the $30 million Derna dam maintenance project.

The Influence of the Administrative Centers Development Authority

The organization reported that Ali Dbeibah, a cousin of the current Prime Minister and head of the Administrative Centers Development Authority (ACDMA) from 1989 to 2011, exercised significant influence over the General Water Authority’s (GWA) decision in November 2007 to award a contract to Arsel for the maintenance of Derna’s dams. Between 2007 and 2010, ACDMA awarded Arsel a series of projects valued at nearly $1 billion, including parts of a university campus in Benghazi and housing units in Marj.

From selecting the Turkish company to managing its relationship with the Libyan state, Ali Dbeibeh controlled the discussions and negotiations with Arsel, heavily influencing the GWA’s decision to contract this company. Before ACDMA granted Arsel this billion-dollar package, the Ankara-based company was relatively unknown and lacked international experience, having previously handled only modest local projects averaging $20 million each. Nevertheless, the head of ACDMA favored Arsel over larger, more experienced Turkish companies, raising suspicions that Ali Dbeibeh may have had hidden motives behind this choice.

Illegal Practices, Not Mere Negligence

After the General Water Authority (GWA) signed the contract with Arsel in November 2007, the project faced unjustified delays lasting approximately 18 months. From April 2009, when the project finally began, until the outbreak of political unrest in February 2011, the Derna dams project was plagued by a series of administrative and operational irregularities, particularly in interactions between Libyan officials and Arsel.

Administrative Violations

The initial payments for the project bypassed standard procedures. Arsel received an upfront payment of about 25% of the total contract value, even though the usual practice at the time dictated a maximum advance of 15%, with at least a third of these payments held in escrow accounts. Additionally, Arsel failed to pay the mandatory 2% tax or the 0.5% contribution to the Social Security Fund. These exemptions suggest a deliberate effort by high-ranking Libyan officials to ensure Arsel had immediate access to funds, raising the likelihood of misappropriation or misuse.

The project scope also raises questions. In 2003, a Swiss consultancy assessed the situation in Derna and concluded that the two existing dams needed reinforcement, including the addition of hydraulic systems, and recommended building a third dam to ensure the safety of downstream residents. However, when Libya contracted Arsel in 2007, the project was limited to minimal structural reinforcements for the two existing dams, despite sufficient funds for more extensive work. More troublingly, after Arsel submitted its initial proposal for basic rehabilitation of the dams, Libyan officials insisted on an even more rudimentary version, suggesting a potential plan to reduce Arsel‘s expenses while allowing it to claim higher payments from the GWA.

Furthermore, despite the contract with Arsel not including the construction of a third dam—and no dam being built—the company falsely claimed on its website that its work in Derna between 2007 and 2012 involved “the construction of a third dam between them.” A lawyer representing the now-defunct Arsel declined to comment.

Project Management Failures

Beyond administrative violations, the Derna dams project was characterized by an unusual and seemingly corrupt arrangement of partners. In July 2009, the General Water Authority (GWA) contracted the Jordanian company Al Concord to participate in the Derna dam project. This task had been declared completed in July 2007 by Benaa wa Tasheed, a subsidiary of the Administrative Centers Development Authority (ACDA). Hiring another company for the same task two years later suggests that the Libyan entity had failed to complete the work and that Arsel could not fulfill its obligations. While Al Concord received its advance payment, it did not commence work, likely because Arsel had not completed its preceding stages, preventing Al Concord from starting its portion. In response to questions from The Sentry, a senior official from Benaa wa Tasheed declined to comment on the Derna dams but admitted the institution’s limited capacity.

For large-scale infrastructure projects, an initial consultant is typically hired to verify contractors’ progress throughout the project. However, in the case of the Derna dams, this critical step was delayed until 2010, when the GWA appointed the Italian consultant IRD. This delay indicates that Libyan decision-makers prioritized disbursing advance payments to Arsel before ensuring that all necessary components for actual implementation were in place—a behavior often associated with corruption.

Derna Dam Post-2011

Throughout the Derna dam project, GWA officials demonstrated a lack of oversight and considerable leniency toward Arsel’s non-performance. This behavior persisted even after 2011, increasing the likelihood that the initial appointment was tainted by corruption.

Following the fall of the Gaddafi regime, the new government in Tripoli adopted a policy encouraging foreign companies to resume pre-2011 projects. In response, Arsel employees returned to Al-Marj and Benghazi, likely motivated by the possibility of claiming half-payments for invoices issued and approved before the 2011 revolution. However, the Turkish company did not return to its sites in Derna.

Nevertheless, Arsel expressed dissatisfaction with not receiving payments due at the start of 2011 for its work in Derna, which was scheduled for completion in 2010. After years of bureaucratic correspondence, the GWA—now the Ministry of Water Resources—released the payments but did not request Arsel to return to Derna to complete the work. Nor did the authority attempt to recover its funds once it became clear that the work had not been executed.

During the same post-2011 period, the ACDA directly contracted another Turkish company, Karan Group, for excavation work as part of the Derna dams’ rehabilitation. As with Arsel, Karan Group did little to no work. This small Turkish company had direct ties to its predecessor; Karan Group’s leader, Sertac Karan, had held an executive position at Arsel before 2011, focusing on projects in the Greater Benghazi area. Post-2011, he worked with other Turkish companies in Libya, including his own. Karan Group participated in several ACDA-funded projects, including the Derna dam project from 2012 to 2016. A former Karan Group employee told The Sentry that Sertac Karan maintained relationships with the Dbeibeh family, even though they were no longer officially heading the ACDA.

In 2017, Arsel filed for bankruptcy due to financial difficulties, leaving creditors scrambling to recover any remaining assets. After the dams’ collapse in September 2023, reports emerged linking Arsel‘s failure to carry out maintenance work on the dams to the tragedy. In an attempt to shift the narrative, the Dbeibeh government helped propagate the idea that Arsel’s legitimate work in Derna was disrupted by the 2011 revolution. However, evidence suggests otherwise.

Administrative Centers Development Authority under Dbeibah’s Leadership

The suspicious behavior of “Arsel” in Derna was not an isolated case but rather reflected a broader issue characteristic of the General Projects Authority (Administrative Centers Development Authority) during the 1990s and early 2000s. Under Ali Dbeibah’s leadership from 1989 to 2011, the General Projects Authority employed dubious practices that hindered the completion of projects across Libya.

In 1998, Ali Dbeibeh implemented strategies to shield his organization from the substantial payment delays that plagued Gaddafi-era bureaucracy. By achieving greater financial independence from other state entities, the General Projects Authority ensured its ability to issue payments swiftly without interference from Gaddafi’s revolutionary committees or other bureaucratic controls. This autonomy made the Authority particularly attractive to foreign companies, especially those from Turkey. However, the Authority also became notorious for its lack of transparency.

Ali Dbeibah’s robust system was underpinned by strong family ties, with his relatives wielding significant influence across various sectors of Libya’s administrative apparatus—not just within the General Projects Authority. As head of the Authority, Ali was supported by his sons, Osama and Ibrahim, as well as his brother, Yousef. Ibrahim began to take on a prominent role starting in 2006. That same year, Ali’s cousin, Abdulhamid, became head of the Libyan Investment and Development Company (LIDCO), a real estate firm through which billions in public funds were funneled. LIDCO served three main state clients: the General Projects Authority, the Housing and Infrastructure Board, and the Civil Aviation Authority. Thus, in the regime’s final five years, the cousins operated in unison without oversight, leading to a dangerous overlap of interests.

Also in 2006, the General Projects Authority assumed control of “Benaa wa Tashyeed,” a state-owned construction company established during Gaddafi’s era. “Benaa wa Tashyeed” became an extension of the Dbeibeh family’s influence. In many of its projects, the General Projects Authority required foreign companies, including “Arsel,” to collaborate with “Benaa wa Tashyeed” in joint ventures for numerous projects unrelated to the Derna dam between 2007 and 2010. From a governance perspective, this arrangement posed a significant problem, as both the General Projects Authority and the Libyan company “Benaa wa Tashyeed” operated under the same family’s influence, creating a conflict of interest that undermined oversight and accountability. This jeopardized the integrity of the projects and weakened public interest.

Suspicions of misconduct were further fueled by the lack of evidence indicating that “Benaa wa Tashyeed” possessed the necessary capabilities to fulfill its prominent roles in these joint ventures. Responding to questions from The Sentry, a senior official at “Benaa wa Tashyeed” noted that, between 2006 and 2010, projects were awarded to the company centrally, based on favoritism rather than competence. The official added that this practice harmed project completion and pointed to the company’s poor financial health as a limiting factor in timely payments and its ability to attract qualified staff.

Under Ali Dbeibah’s leadership from 1989 to 2011, the General Projects Authority (Administrative Centers Development Authority) relied on questionable practices that undermined and delayed the completion of projects throughout Libya.

The period between 2005 and 2010, which saw these developments, was one of the most financially prosperous eras in Libya’s history. An agreement reached in December 2003 between the United States and Gaddafi’s regime lifted international sanctions, contributing to a national economic boom alongside high oil prices. As a result, hundreds of foreign companies flocked to Libya, and by the February 2011 uprising, Gaddafi’s regime was overseeing projects valued at over $70 billion, including more than $15 billion in contracts awarded to 200 Turkish companies operating in 100 different locations nationwide.

In eastern Libyan cities such as Tobruk, Benghazi, and Derna, 28 Turkish companies were engaged in projects valued at $3 billion. Despite these large figures, many projects failed to materialize as planned after contract signing.

As the number of projects increased, the pace of implementation for many Turkish construction projects in Libya slowed or halted entirely. This apparent slowdown coincided with the rise of corruption associated with the Dbeibeh family, which reached severe levels that hindered the execution of construction projects. According to testimonies from five former Libyan officials and a Turkish corruption expert, Ali Dbeibeh and his family members demanded commissions exceeding 15% during negotiations for infrastructure projects, particularly in the years leading up to the 2011 uprising.

The diversion of project funds into these bribes strained the budgets of foreign companies, shrinking their profit margins. This led to subpar execution and long delays, even though companies received their payments from the Libyan state on time.

From Qaddafi’s Tools to Uncontrolled Power Brokers

The Dbeibeh family was not merely a tool of Qaddafi and his sons, but rather became a center of discretionary power in pre-2011 Libya. Throughout the 1990s, the Administrative Centers Development Authority (ACDA), led by Ali Dbeibah, was exploited by the Qaddafi family as an instrument for illicitly diverting Libyan wealth, including circumventing international sanctions. However, by the mid-2000s, the Dbeibeh family had gained significant influence, enabling them to sometimes operate beyond the control of the regime.

In 2007, a corruption investigation led by a Libyan judge documented a series of high-profile corruption cases involving the ACDA and Ali Dbeibah. These included large-scale real estate frauds in Tripoli, such as unauthorized transfers of government offices and the provision of preferential housing to regime officials. The investigation revealed that the ACDA was paying inflated prices for properties, often unsuitable for their declared purpose, and the judge recommended criminal charges against Ali Dbeibeh and others.

Despite the comprehensive nature of the report, only limited action was taken, likely due to the involvement of key figures vital to the regime. However, the investigations clearly documented the growing independence and audacity of the ACDA under the Dbeibeh family, highlighting these trends since 2007.

In 2009, Saif al-Islam Qaddafi urged then Prime Minister al-Baghdadi al-Mahmoudi to encourage authorities to investigate Ali Dbeibah’s practices as head of the ACDA. In August 2010, most expenditures of the ACDA were frozen. A month later, under al-Mahmoudi’s direction, Ali Dbeibeh was replaced as head of the ACDA.

However, the legal issues surrounding Ali Dbeibeh and his dismissal were overshadowed by the civil unrest that began in early 2011. For foreign companies operating in Libya, the February 2011 uprising marked a major turning point, as tens of thousands of foreign workers, including employees of Arsel, were forced to leave the country.

With the regime change, some companies tried to capitalize on the opportunity to recover part of their operational losses, including those not related to the 2011 unrest, by blaming the events. However, these hopes largely went unfulfilled.

A Path Without Accountability

After Qaddafi, the Libyan judiciary was unable to scrutinize the Dbeibeh family’s record from the early 2000s, and the international response was insufficient, despite the severity of the allegations. This lack of accountability has contributed to the escalating corruption that is ravaging Libya today, with the tragedy of Derna being one of many consequences.

In February and March 2011, the United States and the United Nations imposed significant sanctions on Libyan economic institutions to curb the violent repression of popular uprisings. However, these sanctions did not target the ACDA or companies linked to the Dbeibeh family, such as LIDCO. While the European Union froze the assets of the ACDA in August 2011, it lifted these measures after a year and a half.

In 2014, Libyan prosecutors estimated that Ali Dbeibeh embezzled between $6 billion and $7 billion during his tenure as head of the ACDA from 1989 to 2011. The Libyan Attorney General’s office requested Scottish authorities to open an investigation and issued an Interpol Red Notice for him. However, after the retirement of Attorney General Abdelkader Ridwan, coinciding with the outbreak of a new civil war, the investigation stalled.

The ACDA continued to operate in Libya after 2011 under the leadership of Sherif Ibrahim Takita, a technocrat known for his loyalty to the Dbeibeh family. In 2016, a UN-backed government led by Fayez al-Sarraj took power, making Tripoli less hostile to those linked to the former regime.

The following year, Abdulhamid Dbeibah, who never relinquished his leadership of LIDCO, returned to the political scene. In October 2020, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) selected Ali Dbeibeh to be part of a 75-member committee of Libyan citizens tasked with preparing for elections. Ultimately, the committee selected Abdulhamid Dbeibah, Ali’s cousin, as the new prime minister amidst credible allegations of vote-buying.

The Return of Stalled Projects

A few months after taking office as Prime Minister in 2021, Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh announced his intention to revive “stalled projects in Libya” through the Administrative Centers Development Authority. While the authority’s activity has diminished compared to the period before 2011, it still holds some importance. The designs, plans, financial schedules, and administrative structures previously prepared by the authority provide a foundation for many companies hoping to reclaim their contracts.

This is especially true for Turkish companies that were active in Libya before 2011. Since then, the prices of many inputs have risen significantly, necessitating a review and amendment of the original contracts. However, Turkish companies that survived bankruptcy since 2011 have shown interest in reviving their old contracts with the authority, seeing their return to Libya as an opportunity to recover payments they believe they are owed.

From the Libyan side, however, there doesn’t seem to be much enthusiasm for meeting the demands of these companies.

The Grip of the Haftar Family on the Reconstruction of Derna

Although the Dbeibeh family retains power in the current Tripoli government, they have no influence over the ongoing reconstruction of Derna, which is tightly controlled by the family of Marshal Khalifa Haftar and his sons, especially Saddam, Bilqasim, and Khalid. Their approach to kleptocratic authoritarian rule, despite employing different tactics and drastically evolving Libya, poses risks similar to the harmful practices followed by the Dbeibeh family.

Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, Don’t Know

A series of unilateral actions implemented after the Derna floods placed the Haftar family at the forefront of recovery and reconstruction efforts, granting them control over almost every aspect with minimal accountability. Their near-total control greatly increases the risk that a large portion of the public wealth allocated for reconstruction will be diverted for their benefit.

After the floods in 2023, Khalifa Haftar appointed his son Saddam to lead security after the disaster and oversee international rescue operations. As part of their attempt to deepen their dominance in eastern Libya, Haftar blocked Prime Minister Dbeibeh from visiting Derna, while the Haftar family instructed Prime Minister Osama Hamad, based in Benghazi, to stay away from any decisions related to reconstruction.

In a major move, the Speaker of the House of Representatives in February 2024 passed a law appointing Bilqasim Haftar, another son of Khalifa Haftar, as head of the Libyan Reconstruction Fund. This fund selects, negotiates, grants, finances, and manages many infrastructure projects in Haftar-controlled areas. The official legislation prohibits the Audit Bureau, the Administrative Control Authority, and other Libyan regulatory bodies from reviewing Bilqasim Haftar’s decisions or demanding transparency in his management of the reconstruction process. Other government bodies, such as the Ministry of Planning in Tripoli, are also excluded. Even the House of Representatives lacks oversight and knowledge of the details of most contracts signed by Haftar.

When it comes to Derna, the Reconstruction Fund under Bilqasim Haftar signs contracts through a unilateral, non-transparent process that avoids competitive bidding. Moreover, the total value of the contracts signed by Bilqasim Haftar for the reconstruction of Derna may amount to approximately 12 billion Libyan dinars (2.4 billion USD). In July 2024, the House of Representatives passed the Unified National Budget Law, which includes allocations for the reconstruction of Libya. Under this framework, the Libyan Central Bank is likely to review each project proposed by Bilqasim’s fund on a case-by-case basis to decide whether to issue the necessary letter of credit for each project. This leaves many gaps unaddressed, as the Central Bank of Libya is not tasked with being an enforcement or supervisory body responsible for ensuring the integrity of infrastructure contracts. When asked about how his fund finances its work, Bilqasim expressed confidence in the official Libyan budget law but remained vague on the details.

Bilqasim Haftar’s Reconstruction Fund is not the only body fully controlled by the Haftar family in the field of infrastructure. Even before the Derna floods, reconstruction was already a priority for the rulers of eastern Libya, which translated into the spread of committees and investment bodies. A key player in the reconstruction sector linked to Haftar is the National Development Authority, headed by Jibril Al-Badri, known for his close relations with Saddam Haftar.

All this means there is almost complete ambiguity under Haftar family rule: the Libyan people, Libyan regulatory bodies, and international entities have little, if any, access to a comprehensive reconstruction plan or details about the contracts, participating companies, alliance formations, financial allocations for each project, scope of work, or sources of funding.

Across Libya, illegal activities have increased, including in areas under Haftar’s control. In this kleptocratic boom, the opacity of the public-funded reconstruction process is particularly concerning, as the Haftar family and their affiliates may exploit this process for personal gain. Potential risks in infrastructure contracts include fraud in letters of credit and money laundering. If much of the construction work is handled through banks in eastern Libya, it will be easier for Haftar and his affiliates to carry out such schemes under the guise of legitimate work by private contractors.

What the Reconstruction of Benghazi Reveals About Derna

The ongoing reconstruction efforts in Benghazi, fully controlled by the Haftar family through the same institutional mechanisms as in Derna, provide valuable insights into how the Derna projects might unfold in the coming months. Benghazi, a city with a population of 800,000, endured more than three years of intense urban warfare between 2014 and 2017, with reconstruction efforts beginning only in 2022. Since then, the city has seen an increase in projects, and these construction initiatives have shaped Haftar’s approach to infrastructure. Similar methods, along with potential risks of abuse, are likely to be applied in Derna.

In Benghazi, Haftar’s infrastructure strategy often involves securing opaque deals with private companies, both foreign and Libyan, through a process that lacks public bidding. The process typically begins with an undisclosed amount of funding allocated for a prominent agreement with a foreign company that is selected and publicly announced. However, behind the scenes, the foreign company is often required to partner with a private Libyan company that has informal ties to Haftar or his allies. Allegedly, about half of the project’s nominal cost is paid to the Libyan company, which contributes little value, while the remaining half goes to the foreign company, which performs most of the work.

This practice raises concerns: officials representing the Libyan state should not secretly control the Libyan contractors they hire for construction projects. Such conflicts of interest increase the likelihood of financial irregularities and significantly raise the chance of diverting large portions of public wealth.

Regarding foreign partners, Haftar has favored Egyptian and Emirati construction companies so far. Among the Egyptian companies involved in the reconstruction of Benghazi are “Neom Real Estate Development,” owned by Ibrahim Al-Arjani, a friend of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi; “Arab Contractors,” linked to the Egyptian Cabinet; and “Nile Valley Company,” known for its connections to Egypt’s General Intelligence Directorate. In August 2024, the National Development Authority, headed by Haftar’s son, Saddam Haftar, awarded the project for the “Greater Free Zone in Al-Merisa” to the UAE-based “Global Contracting.”

Turkish companies have also secured contracts in Benghazi, suggesting that they might achieve similar success in Derna.

Despite Ankara’s strong stance against Haftar during the 2019-2020 Tripoli war, Turkish diplomats, especially since 2022, have made significant efforts to warm up to Haftar and his family, aiming to help Turkish companies win economic opportunities in eastern Libya. Companies from China, France, South Korea, Canada, and other countries have also shown keen interest in contracts with Haftar’s family, although their political ties may be less robust than those of companies from Egypt, the UAE, and Turkey. Additionally, some Western companies are cautious about entering into direct contracts with the Belqasem Haftar Reconstruction Fund due to compliance concerns.

Among the most active Libyan private companies in construction projects in Benghazi are “Al-Rayan Holding” and “Imar Libya Holding,” both linked to Haftar’s son, Khaled, who serves as the Chief of Staff of Haftar’s security units based in the Qaryunis neighborhood of Benghazi. Furthermore, “Ibar Al-Alam,” which partnered with the UAE’s “Global Builders” in constructing the new Benghazi airport, is reportedly indirectly controlled by Belqasem Haftar. The spokesperson for Belqasem Haftar’s Reconstruction Fund in Libya did not respond to requests for comment. Neither did “Al-Rayan Holding,” “Imar Libya Holding,” or the spokesman for Haftar’s armed alliance respond to requests for comment.

Risks of Flawed Recovery

Interviews with Derna residents and eyewitnesses reveal that the ongoing recovery efforts in the disaster-stricken city appear more superficial than recommended by the World Bank. The Belkacem Haftar Reconstruction Fund has not sufficiently clarified its plan for restoring the city, but its actions suggest that speed and appearances may be prioritized over safety.

The World Bank’s “Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment” report, published after the 2023 floods, highlights the need to improve water, sanitation, and road infrastructure. It also emphasizes the necessity of rebuilding and upgrading electricity generators and water systems, with a focus on enhancing resilience against future extreme weather events. The report stresses the importance of building flood-resistant bridges and roads using durable materials and modern designs to adapt to climate change. For dams, the World Bank recommends comprehensive repairs.

Twelve months after what seems to be impressive work from the outside in Derna, there is little evidence that the authorities have committed to the World Bank’s recommendations. For instance, it remains unclear how the collapsed dams will be replaced, and there is no indication that new facilities will meet the recommended standards. Rumors suggest that the Libya Reconstruction Fund may invest in advanced repairs, including hydraulic systems, but there is widespread local skepticism. Some residents have expressed concerns about the companies that should take on the task, highlighting a problem of trust.

In the city itself, many Derna residents have welcomed the surface-level progress so far, such as renovated schools, new recreational facilities for children, and a new clinic. However, in-depth interviews with residents reveal that the recovery has been unbalanced. For example, the rehabilitation of Mazouaaj Darneis Club Street was comprehensive, including sewage, drinking water, and electricity. But efforts in other parts of Derna fail to address problems that have developed over decades in a city known for its lack of infrastructure. For instance, two Derna residents told “The Sentry” that despite the March 2024 announcement of the full renovation of a major street called Fanar Street, the actual work was superficial and limited to cleaning and repainting. A local source told “The Sentry” that the authorities only applied one layer of asphalt and expressed concerns that it would crack after a few years. One Derna resident, who lost two neighbors in September 2023, praised the repairs to some major streets by Belkacem Haftar but pointed out that other vital arteries severely damaged by the floods remained uninhabitable as of October 2024. Interviewees also expressed frustration with the state of alleyways and small side streets, many of which are still filled with debris. Others emphasized the ongoing lack of basic infrastructure, such as electricity and sewage systems, in large parts of Derna.

The way authorities have dealt with some Derna residents shows signs of politically motivated neglect. Dozens of families from the historic center, which was heavily impacted by the floods—an area that also bore the brunt of Haftar’s military campaign in 2018-2019—appear to have been marginalized in the post-flood rehabilitation process. While authorities are conducting widespread demolitions in preparation for rebuilding in those central neighborhoods, they offered to buy some of the residents’ homes at much lower prices than their market value. In 2023, Haftar’s family executed a more aggressive version of similar policies in central Benghazi, leading to the arbitrary and permanent displacement of many families. Haftar’s family may be implementing an approach aimed at forcibly dispersing some families from central Derna, with an unannounced goal of preventing political opposition from emerging there. Additionally, compensatory funds have not been distributed equitably, increasing the risks of injustice and bias.

Overall, the haste evident in Derna’s recovery today is typical of situations where political leaders are driven by incompatible incentives that negatively affect residents’ well-being. First, leaders seem to prefer enhancing their image through flashy announcements rather than committing to executing projects slowly and carefully. Second, these leaders may prioritize achieving immediate financial gains through upfront payments rather than allocating resources to implement high-quality projects. Such an approach contradicts the long-term success of recovery, as it leads to neglect of essential preparatory steps and the use of shortcuts that undermine the integrity of the final result.

No Room for Complacency

Between 2005 and 2010, Libya saw widespread corruption in infrastructure projects, with foreign companies used as channels to facilitate these violations. The lack of proper maintenance of Derna’s dams for many years prior to the September 2023 disaster is just one example of these practices. It is likely that a small group of senior Libyan officials stole billions of dollars without leaving a clear paper trail, leading to years of impunity and reinforcing the political ruling class’s control, not to mention the deterioration of national infrastructure.

These precedents of infrastructure-related violations from the mid-2000s require caution and vigilance regarding the ongoing reconstruction efforts in Libya. Although the circumstances differ, the current contracting protocols for reconstruction, including in Derna, should be subject to strict scrutiny, as patterns of concerning business practices may repeat. Many projects involve splitting contract funds between foreign companies and private Libyan entities with unofficial ties to Haftar’s family, opening the door to the potential diversion of funds. There is also a risk that some contracts involving Libyan companies may be used to facilitate fraudulent letters of credit, including for money laundering purposes. Such potential use and contribution to the manipulation of Libya’s public wealth threatens the efficiency, sustainability, and viability of all newly announced infrastructure projects by Haftar’s family. Therefore, transparency is crucial for these publicly funded contracts, especially given Haftar’s secretive and opaque approach.

As for the Dbeibeh family, which currently governs in Tripoli, its members must also be held accountable for their suspected illegal practices since the mid-2000s. Moreover, the Dbeibeh government—since 2021—bears at least some, if not much, responsibility for the Derna disaster. The Dbeibeh Prime Minister’s offices did not respond to a request for comment.

The ongoing deterioration in the management of Libya’s economy calls for a reassessment, both internationally and locally, of pressure mechanisms and accountability. If systemic gaps remain unaddressed, increasing corruption in Libya will continue to accelerate, with potential consequences that may include a return to economic upheaval or armed conflict.

Recommendations

United States and Allied Countries:

  1. Combatting Corruption: Increase pressure on ruling families and their business partners to reduce corruption in Libya. Despite regional allies like Turkey, Egypt, and the UAE tolerating Libyan corruption, the focus should be on curbing this issue.
  2. Reconstruction of Derna: Engage with the Libyan Central Bank’s leadership to ensure transparency in reconstruction contracts, especially those linked to Haftar. Avoid allowing non-transparent credit letters for these projects and encourage more transparency in spending.
  3. Audit Support: Strengthen support for the Audit Bureau to investigate past and current corruption, particularly in infrastructure projects. USAID should increase collaboration with the bureau, including funding international audit firms, and ensure the Bureau can work without threats.
  4. Accountability in National Budget: Improve transparency in development spending, particularly in sectors beyond Derna. The Ministry of Planning and the Central Bank should release detailed project reports and progress updates.
  5. Linking Transparency to Sanctions: Connect calls for transparency from Libyan leaders with targeted sanctions against their closest partners involved in illegal activities. This is crucial, as reconstruction relies mostly on Libyan resources, with limited foreign donations.
  6. Support Civil Organizations: Back trustworthy civil organizations that mobilize Derna’s diaspora to contribute skills and efforts to rebuild the city. These initiatives aim to foster greater transparency and solidarity.
  7. Investigate Fraud: Revive investigations into fraud, especially regarding the Derna dams scandal and the Administrative Centers Development Authority, which involves the Dbeibeh family.

UN Security Council:

  1. Maintain Sanctions: Continue sanctions on Libyan Investment Authority assets until they comply with sovereign wealth fund principles and provide comprehensive accounts. The Security Council should remain firm, even if Libyan officials cite Derna recovery as justification for asset freeze exceptions.

International Banks:

  1. Increase Vigilance: International financial institutions should be cautious of the risk that Haftar’s camp may use reconstruction projects to launder illicit funds. They must scrutinize all reconstruction-related transactions and enforce anti-money laundering measures.

Libyan Ministries and Public Institutions:

  1. Digitize Company Registries: Make private company records public to expose illegal companies tied to government officials, preventing misappropriation of public funds.
  2. National Infrastructure Maintenance Taskforce: Establish a national task force to assess and monitor the country’s infrastructure, ensuring adequate maintenance across Libya, especially after recent disasters. The team should include existing bodies such as the National Planning Council and Ministry of Planning, and address the increased vulnerability of Libya to climate change impacts.

Oil Price: OPEC’s Oil Production Rises Again in November Due to Increased Libyan Output

The oil-focused website “Oil Price” reported today, Wednesday, on OPEC’s monthly oil market report, revealing that crude oil production from all member states increased by 104,000 barrels per day in November compared to October.

The report highlighted that OPEC’s total crude oil production averaged 26.66 million barrels per day last month, driven by increased production in Libya, Iran, and Nigeria, according to secondary sources used by OPEC to track market supplies.

The website emphasized that among the three countries with the highest production increases in November compared to the previous month, Libya and Iran were exempt from OPEC production cuts due to political instability and Western sanctions.

It also noted that Libya’s crude oil production rose by approximately 141,000 barrels per day, reaching 1.238 million barrels per day, according to OPEC’s secondary sources.

Exclusive: The Deputy Head of the Audit Bureau Directs Correspondence for Financial Allocation Distribution on Projects and Halts Payments Until Required Data is Submitted

Our source exclusively obtained a correspondence from the Deputy Head of the Audit Bureau, Atiyyat-Allah Hussein Abdel Karim, addressed to the Minister of Planning in charge of the National Unit, directing the preparation of detailed schedules outlining the financial allocation distributions for projects and development programs for the years 2024-2025.

The schedules should include priorities, required resources, and implementation timelines before financial authorizations and payment orders related to these allocations are issued. The letter also requests that the Governor of the Central Bank of Libya and the Minister of Finance refrain from taking any action, allocation, or payment from the third account (development) until the Bureau is provided with evidence of the resolution of the issues raised in the Bureau’s report and the required data.

Al-Zantouti: IMF’s Latest Statement – Economic Hypocrisy and Hollow Recommendations

Financial expert Khaled Al-Zantouti penned an article criticizing the recent statement by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding Libya, describing it as “economic hypocrisy” and filled with “hollow recommendations.”

Al-Zantouti highlighted the IMF’s acknowledgment of Libya’s “positive turning point after a decade of board stagnation,” questioning the organization’s silence and inaction during those ten years. He pointed out that despite annual meetings under Article IV regarding Libya, the IMF failed to push for urgent reforms to address the governance freeze.

He also criticized the IMF’s statement calling for “a more organized leadership transition to enhance stability and improve governance,” arguing that such flaws in governance have been evident for years. Al-Zantouti emphasized the IMF’s failure to introduce actionable programs to enhance governance during its previous meetings.

Regarding the recurring recommendation to “control spending,” Al-Zantouti labeled it as generic and ineffective. He urged the IMF to provide specific operational advice, detailing which expenditures should be curbed, their responsible entities, and the mechanisms to achieve this—similar to its tailored guidance for borrowing countries.

The article also challenged the IMF’s reliance on Libya’s oil revenues as a basis for economic growth. Al-Zantouti argued that the organization should advocate for income diversification strategies instead of continued dependence on oil, a volatile and politically sensitive resource, offering practical suggestions to achieve this goal.

Finally, Al-Zantouti criticized the IMF’s praise for the Central Bank of Libya’s efforts to facilitate access to foreign currency. He warned that this ease of access, without proper regulation and effective monetary policies, could have adverse long-term effects on exchange rates and both macro and microeconomic stability.

Exclusive: Al-Harshaoui to Sada: Major Foreign Investment Firms Require Clear Answers to Pending Questions, Transparency Lacking with Libya’s NOC

Jalel Al-Harchaoui, a Libya affairs expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told our source on Tuesday that while foreign companies may be interested in investing in Libya’s oil sector, they need clear answers to several unresolved questions before committing.

Al-Harchaoui emphasized to our source that these firms currently harbor concerns about the National Oil Corporation (NOC), citing insufficient transparency as a key issue.

Exclusive: Ruvinetti to Sada: Despite Strategic Importance, Economic Initiatives with Libya Remain Uncertain

Italian strategic expert Daniele Ruvinetti told our source on Tuesday that Italy’s concerns regarding economic plans with Libya stem from political instability, security challenges, and migration issues. According to Ruvinetti, the fragmented political landscape and volatile security environment pose significant risks to investments.

Ruvinetti highlighted that Libya’s role as a transit point for migrants adds pressure to Italian policies.

He further explained that disruptions in Libyan oil production, critical for Italy’s energy security, combined with the influence of external actors, complicate Italy’s ability to engage effectively. These factors, despite the strategic importance of the initiatives, render economic projects with Libya uncertain.