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Author: Amira Cherni

Among them is the expectation of GDP growth.. IMF Mission Publishes Important Report on Libya’s 2025 Economic Outlook

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission released its concluding statement for 2025 on Libya, which includes the preliminary findings of the IMF team at the end of its official visit to Libya—an annual consultation conducted under Article IV of the IMF Agreement.

The statement said that the dispute over the leadership of the Central Bank last August, along with the disruption in oil production, negatively impacted growth in 2024. It is estimated that production contracted due to a forced decline in GDP from hydrocarbon resources. However, this was partially offset by an increase in non-oil activities, fueled by continued government spending. After the dispute was resolved, oil production recovered and is now approaching 1.4 million barrels per day.

It added: Official inflation stood at around 2 percent in 2024, reflecting the broad subsidies on goods and services. However, this figure was affected by data measurement issues. Subsidized goods and services make up about one-third of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which was based on an outdated consumption basket covering only Tripoli. This likely led to an inaccurate estimation of inflation due to significant price differences across Libya’s regions. The Bureau of Statistics and Census has now released an updated CPI with wider geographic coverage and revised weights.

Preliminary estimates indicate a budget and current account deficit in 2024. Government spending continued to rise amid falling oil revenues due to production and export stoppages. It is estimated that the current account shifted from a large surplus in 2023 to a deficit in 2024 due to reduced hydrocarbon exports, while imports remained largely unchanged. Reserves stayed at comfortable levels, supported by the revaluation of gold holdings at the Central Bank of Libya.

The banking sector managed to raise capital and strengthen its financial soundness indicators. In late 2022, the Central Bank required banks to increase their capital to comply with Basel II regulatory requirements. Most banks met their targets in 2024, resulting in a doubling of paid-up capital. Additionally, banks’ financial soundness improved significantly, with better ratios of non-performing loans. Private sector credit growth remained strong in 2024, particularly in the form of Murabaha financing for individual clients and salary advances for public employees, while corporate financing remained limited.

The economic outlook will be driven by developments in the oil sector, with real GDP expected to grow in 2025, mainly due to expanded oil production, before slowing down in the medium term. Growth in non-hydrocarbon activities is expected to remain around the 2021–2024 average (5–6 percent) throughout the forecast period, supported by continued government spending.

Current account and budgetary pressures are expected to persist in the medium term, driven by projected declines in oil prices and ongoing government demands to fully spend oil revenues. The outlook is subject to a high degree of uncertainty, with risks skewed to the downside, especially due to domestic political instability, oil price volatility, intensifying regional conflicts, and deepening geo-economic fragmentation.

Efforts to establish a unified budget should remain a top priority, as this would help set spending priorities and strengthen fiscal credibility. In the meantime, authorities should resist pressure to increase current spending, particularly on wages and subsidies. They should also enhance public financial management, including through stronger macroeconomic coordination within the Ministry of Finance.

In the medium term, significant fiscal efforts will be necessary to maintain sustainability and intergenerational equity, including through disciplined reforms in wages, energy subsidies, and non-hydrocarbon revenue collection.

The Central Bank of Libya devalued the dinar by about 13 percent in early April and imposed further restrictions on foreign exchange to relieve pressure on reserves. In the absence of traditional monetary policy tools, controlling fiscal spending remains the preferred policy response under Libya’s macroeconomic framework.

However, given Libya’s fragile political stability and institutional fragmentation, addressing spending pressures in the short term may not be feasible. Authorities should work to narrow the gap between the official and parallel exchange rates, including by phasing out the foreign exchange tax and easing currency restrictions, while maintaining international reserves.

The Central Bank of Libya needs to develop an effective domestic monetary policy framework with a defined policy rate that can serve as a benchmark for banks in Libya. This framework would allow the Bank to respond to changes in macroeconomic conditions, ease repeated downward pressures on the Libyan dinar, and provide a benchmark for credit pricing by banks and financial institutions.

The recent efforts by the Central Bank of Libya to inject new banknotes, promote electronic payments, and accelerate financial inclusion are a welcome step. However, more work is needed to address the cash accumulation problem and restore trust in the financial sector. Improving transparency, accountability, and financial literacy, along with developing attractive savings plans, will be key to boosting credit supply to the private sector. Authorities must continue to strengthen the anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CFT) framework to support the stability of correspondent banking relationships and overall economic stability. The legal framework should align with international standards, and AML/CFT risk mitigation should be appropriately coordinated and risk-focused.

To stimulate economic diversification in Libya, it is essential to address the challenges facing the private sector. Informal employment remains high due to ongoing political instability and a weak business regulatory framework. Limited access to finance and foreign currency, public sector dominance, and poor governance are key barriers to growth in Libya. Banks continue to lack a defined framework for credit expansion since the passage of the interest prohibition law. Authorities must initiate a comprehensive economic reform plan focused on private sector development, beginning with updating regulatory frameworks, improving access to finance, and enhancing the security situation.

Governance reforms will be critical to support sustainable growth. Positive steps taken by the Central Bank to improve the banking governance framework are welcome. Additionally, efforts to combat corruption—such as the publication of the Libyan Audit Bureau’s annual reports and the adoption of a national anti-corruption strategy—are notable. However, significant governance gaps remain in the management of state-owned enterprises, public spending, rule of law, and overall state fragility. Addressing these issues in a timely manner will help create a better business environment and a more vibrant private sector. The next Article IV consultation mission is expected in Spring 2026.

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Libya Braces for Financial Chaos: European Site Reveals the Country’s Deepening Economic Disasters

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The European-based “Atlantic Council” reported on Wednesday that Libya’s crisis has shifted from a fragile stagnation to outright collapse. The situation is now visibly deteriorating, with financial figures becoming undeniable and consequences increasingly imminent.

The site pointed out that for several months, economists and analysts have warned of this trajectory — their forecasts weren’t based on unrealistic warnings or abstract models, but on daily observations: rising inflation, a widening budget deficit, and a gradual disappearance of public oversight.

According to the report, Libya’s Central Bank had previously issued stern warnings. In 2024, the Government of National Unity spent more than 109 billion Libyan dinars, while the parallel government in the east accrued over 49 billion dinars in off-budget commitments. Neither figure reflects coordination or fiscal discipline — merely the actions of officials either unaware of or indifferent to the consequences of reckless spending.

Preparing for Financial Chaos:
The site explained that both sides have revealed the scale of financial disorder. In response, the Central Bank of Libya adjusted the official exchange rate, raising it to 5.48 LYD per USD, while maintaining its 15% surcharge on foreign currency purchases. While technically a policy adjustment, this step is a temporary fix — an attempt to absorb political excesses amid shrinking monetary space. It underscores a deeper truth: Libya’s financial institutions are no longer steering the economy, but rather preparing for its collapse.

The report noted that while Libya still appears to be producing oil, in reality, its economy is crumbling. The Libyan dinar’s black-market exchange rate spiked to 7.8 LYD per USD within 48 hours of the Central Bank’s decision — a justified vote of no confidence in the country’s financial and monetary authorities. The institutions that once anchored stability through budget audits, revenue tracking, foreign currency regulation, and centralized oversight have been reduced to remnants. What remains is an economy fueled by improvisation, secretive deals, and political maneuvering.

A Corruption System by Design:
The site added that corruption in Libya evolved in stages. Initially, the scramble was over resources once monopolized by Muammar Gaddafi — budget items, salary plans, procurement deals. Later, transitional authorities fought over who would allocate those resources, vying for control of institutions and their budgets. Today, this logic has reached its peak, completely distorting the allocation process itself. Libya’s economic crisis is no longer just about who benefits — it’s about how those benefits are manufactured.

The site further explained that Libya’s system lacks accountability and oversight, with frequent budget violations often negotiated through unofficial intermediaries tied to transnational networks, and without public scrutiny. Despite the National Oil Corporation’s pledge to end crude oil-for-fuel swaps by March 2025, these transactions are already overshadowed by more elaborate and opaque arrangements. According to the report, this marks the latest development in Libya’s uniquely “innovative” corruption system.

Exclusive: Details of Central Bank’s Instructions on Launching Unrestricted Mudarabah Deposit Certificates

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Our source has obtained the Central Bank of Libya’s instructions to banks regarding the launch of unrestricted Mudarabah deposit certificates, which are intended to invest customers’ balances in investment accounts at Libyan banks. These certificates, issued by the Central Bank of Libya to commercial banks, carry an expected annual return of 5.5% for the banks.

According to the circular, banks will issue unrestricted Mudarabah deposit certificates to their clients who hold investment accounts, for the same terms and durations announced by the Central Bank. These are specifically designated for the balances in clients’ investment accounts, with an expected annual return of 5% for customers.

These certificates are defined as a Sharia-compliant investment instrument (based on the Islamic Mudaraba system), meaning that customers can invest their funds (only from investment accounts) through them.

  • Expected return for customers: Approximately 5% annually
  • Return for banks (from the Central Bank): Approximately 5.5%

In simpler terms, a citizen who has an investment account in any bank can purchase one of these certificates. The bank then invests the money on behalf of the citizen, and at the end of the term, grants them the expected profits. The entire process is supervised by the Central Bank of Libya to ensure transparency.

Africa Energy: Libya Renegotiates Oil Export Agreement with Arcano to Halt Financial Crisis

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The French website Africa Energy reported on Monday that Libya is renegotiating a controversial oil export agreement in an attempt to stop the financial crisis.

The website stated that the Government of National Unity may seek to renegotiate controversial and unfavorable deals, such as the production-sharing agreement between the National Oil Corporation and Arcano Oil, a company affiliated with Saddam Haftar. However, with government spending spiraling out of control, the devaluation of the dinar, and escalating tensions between armed groups, the outlook appears troubling on all fronts, according to the French outlet.

Belqasim Haftar: “The Development and Reconstruction Fund Follows a Strict Financial Governance System and Maintains a Neutral Stance”

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Belqasim Haftar, Director General of the Libya Development and Reconstruction Fund, affirmed in an exclusive interview with the Italian agency that Italy and the European Union are strategic partners for Libya, and their support is essential to ensure development and reconstruction that benefits the entire region. He emphasized the importance of tangible commitment from international partners.

According to Nova Agency, the Fund’s director outlined four key sectors as priorities for cooperation between Libya and European countries, which must be the focus for reviving the Libyan economy: infrastructure, education, healthcare, and security.

Haftar stated that enhancing investments in infrastructure projects is crucial to support reconstruction, highlighting the investment opportunities available for Italian and European companies. At the same time, he stressed the need for investment in training and knowledge transfer to build a skilled workforce.

He added that strengthening cooperation in the fields of security, politics, and the economy is of utmost importance to ensure the stability of Libya and the entire region.

He confirmed that Europe and Italy must participate actively in training and continuous learning programs.

The Fund’s director stated that Libya’s stability is vital for the entire Mediterranean region, and they intend to build strong strategic partnerships to achieve this shared goal.

Financial Management:

He continued by stating that one of the most critical aspects for Libya’s future concerns the management of funds allocated for reconstruction.

He explained that the Development and Reconstruction Fund operates with funds allocated from the Libyan state’s public budget and follows a strict financial governance system.

He said, “We cooperate with all relevant Libyan institutions and ensure transparency and fairness in project distribution,” noting that the most recent meeting was held with the Governor of the Central Bank of Libya in the city of Derna. However, the matter remains complex due to the lack of an accepted general budget between the two rival administrations in Libya: the Government of National Unity led by the Prime Minister, and on the other hand, the Government of National Stability led by the eastern parliament-appointed Prime Minister, Osama Hammad.

To ensure transparency and oversight, Belqasim Haftar said that the Fund relies on a system of periodic auditing and operates according to the financial laws of the state. In explaining the Fund’s development strategies, he clarified that the Fund follows an integrated approach focusing on five main sectors.

According to Haftar, the Fund’s comprehensive national strategy is based on an integrated approach that includes the redevelopment of essential infrastructure such as roads, airports, and power stations. Other core pillars include investment in education and healthcare, which are considered fundamental to the country’s growth. In addition, the strategy includes the provision of housing and urban infrastructure through integrated construction projects.

He pointed out that projects are implemented through various mechanisms, including open tenders and direct contracts depending on the nature of the project, highlighting the goal of ensuring a balance between local and international companies, while guaranteeing transparency and fairness in the distribution of projects.

Haftar stressed that the Fund maintains a neutral stance and does not interfere in internal affairs.

He said, “We refrain from interfering in internal political affairs and focus exclusively on achieving sustainable development and reconstruction in all Libyan cities and regions, as the Fund respects the choices of the Libyan people.” However, following the success of the recent local elections, the international community is closely monitoring the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections, which are considered a decisive step in enhancing political stability.

Ashnibish: “The Silent Coup… Will the Digital Yuan Reshape the Global Financial System?”

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Mr. Anas Ashnibeesh wrote:

In a quiet scene reminiscent of spy films, and away from the media spotlight focused on market noise, a financial revolution is unfolding—one that could change the rules of the game for decades to come.

This time, it’s not from Wall Street, but from the heart of Beijing, where the digital yuan is carving a path toward reshaping the global financial landscape.

As the world grapples with high inflation, currency wars, and economic sanctions, China has made calculated moves to present a strategic alternative to one of the most influential financial networks: the SWIFT system.

The Digital Yuan: More Than Just a Currency

The digital yuan, or DCEP (Digital Currency Electronic Payment), is not just another electronic currency. It is a state-level project and a key tool in China’s hands to control cross-border financial flows—without relying on the traditional Western financial infrastructure.

In March 2025, China announced the successful integration of its digital payment system with several countries in Asia and the Middle East, in a massive project aimed at reducing dependence on the dollar and facilitating intra-regional trade through a new financial language.

From Beijing to Dubai… in 7 Seconds

In a stunning demonstration, a commercial transaction between Hong Kong and Abu Dhabi was settled using the digital yuan in just 7 seconds—no intermediary banks, no SWIFT, and the transaction fee? 98% lower than standard rates.

Yes, what you’re reading is real: no waiting, no complexity, no hidden fees.

Why Now? And Why This Fast?

With rising geopolitical tensions and recurring financial sanctions, it’s become clear: whoever controls the financial infrastructure holds the power. China understands this well and is using the digital yuan to gradually decouple from the dollar and achieve what it calls “sovereign financial independence.”

Through blockchain technology, the Chinese government achieves unprecedented levels of transparency, oversight, and control.

Every transaction, every transfer, every payment—is recorded on an immutable digital ledger. This isn’t just a safeguard for money—it’s a precise geopolitical instrument that allows China to monitor capital movement in real time, both domestically and across borders.

But What About Privacy?

On the other hand, some raise questions: what about privacy? What if this system becomes a tool of total surveillance?

The Financial Dragon Spreads Its Wings

What’s surprising is not just the technology—but the timing. While Western economies wrestle with inflation, stagnation, and high interest rates, China moves quietly to build a new digital trade bloc.

Today, ten ASEAN countries and six Middle Eastern nations—including major oil-exporting states—have already begun integrating with China’s new system, bypassing the Western system and the limitations of SWIFT.

It’s like SWIFT 2.0, but in Chinese, and managed under a long-term strategic vision.

The West’s Response?

So far, neither Washington nor Brussels seems to have an effective answer. Financial sanctions have become a weapon that’s pushing others to create alternatives—rather than bringing them into line. Every time SWIFT is used as a punitive tool, more countries are driven to break free from it.

And China knows exactly how to play this card.

Are We Witnessing the Beginning of the End for Dollar Dominance?

Let’s be realistic: the dollar won’t fall tomorrow. But it’s starting to lose some of its dominance. And with the digital yuan entering the global payment stage—not just as a currency, but as a complete alternative financial system—the equation is starting to shift.

The next major Middle Eastern deal? It might be done in Chinese digital currency.

A joint project between Asia and Africa? It might not pass through New York.

In this new world, whoever owns the digital infrastructure owns the influence.

Has the Silent Coup Already Begun?

It’s not a coup in the classic sense—no tanks, no yelling in the streets… but a financial coup—carried out through code, algorithms, and invisible transfers.

And in just a few years, we might wake up to find that the world no longer “transfers” via SWIFT, but “clicks” through a Chinese system—faster, cheaper, and more efficient.

The question that remains is:
Are we ready to live in a post-SWIFT world?

Exclusive: For These Reasons, Shakshak Suspends Two Officials from Brega Oil Company from Work

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Our source has exclusively obtained the decision issued by the Head of the Libyan Audit Bureau, Khaled Shakshak, regarding the suspension of Saad Al-Din Al-Zaidi, in his capacity as Director of the Financial Department for the Western and Southern Regions at Brega Petroleum Marketing Company, and Mohamed Mansour Al-Fallah, Director of the Services Department at the same company.

This suspension comes due to their obstruction of the committee assigned to audit and review the accounts of Brega Petroleum Marketing Company by the General Administration for Oversight of the Energy Sector and Public Companies at the Bureau, and for violating the Audit Bureau’s regulatory law.

Al-Zantouti Writes: Corruption and the Dinar’s Decline Are Directly Linked – It’s a Chronic Disease

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When we speak of corruption—whether within a kleptocratic, oligarchic, or any other system—it encompasses both administrative and financial corruption. In fact, financial corruption is often the consequence of administrative corruption. The more deficient an administrative system is in its regulatory tools—especially law enforcement, justice, and accountability—the more widespread financial corruption becomes.

It’s evident that Libya is suffering from an administrative and financial corruption crisis unmatched in modern times. This is not an exaggeration but is supported by numerous investigative studies, articles, financial and economic indicators, and published data over recent years. I’ve referred to these in several of my past articles. Libya consistently ranks among the worst globally in transparency and corruption indices. If not among the top five, we are certainly among the top ten most corrupt and mismanaged nations.

Recently, many analysts have discussed the causes behind the Libyan dinar’s devaluation and potential solutions, often citing unregulated spending, subsidy reform, budget unification, and redefined monetary and fiscal policies. While I agree with the theoretical foundation of these suggestions, I am personally convinced that none of these solutions will work in an environment deeply infested with administrative and financial corruption like Libya’s.

As long as corruption persists, so will division, reckless spending by both governments, unregulated fuel subsidies leading to billions in smuggling, inflated public sector wages, and a “my share vs. your share” mentality. Mismanagement of resources and public expenditure will continue, legislative conflicts will remain unresolved, and regionalism will deepen. The struggle for power and wealth will rage on—all to foster a breeding ground for corruption.

Those benefiting from corruption are deliberately intensifying these negative dynamics to maintain their grip on public funds.

One of the main drivers of the dinar’s depreciation is the overwhelming demand for dollars at any cost by corrupt individuals laundering their illicit funds and transferring them abroad. Regardless of the official exchange rate, there will always be a parallel market with higher rates because these actors are willing to buy dollars at any price. Thus, the market in Al-Mushir (Tripoli’s currency black market) is governed by unregulated supply and demand, heavily influenced by dollar traders who control how much (illicit) currency is available and sell it to fellow corrupt players.

Tragically, this harms ordinary citizens who need dollars for essential purposes like medical treatment, forcing them to buy at much higher black market rates. May God help them.

The bitter truth is that the root cause of our current crisis is widespread corruption. Corrupt figures cling to power, create conflict, and even instigate wars to sustain a corruption-friendly environment. If we don’t uproot corruption and its perpetrators, the dinar will continue to fall. The more corruption increases, the more the dinar will plummet to satisfy the corrupt elite’s hunger for dollars and their quest to transfer money abroad—abandoning the weakened dinar in the process.

I’ll end with an innocent question: If we take the $10 billion spent on letters of credit and personal transfers in the first quarter of this year—equating to about $1,500 per citizen, or $7,500 per average household (5 people), roughly 50,000 LYD over three months or 17,000 LYD per month—did we actually import goods or services worth this amount? Did every household consume that much in imports?

The simulation is illustrative, but it strongly indicates that the answer is no. Much of this $10 billion never returned to Libya—it remains abroad in the accounts of those individuals. Some of it may have even returned to the black market to profit off exchange rate differentials. I’m not generalizing, but our corruption has surpassed imagination. Damn the corrupt, and may God aid the honorable Libyans fighting them.

God Almighty said: “Indeed, Allah does not like corruption”, and “Indeed, Allah does not like the corrupt”, and “Allah does not amend the deeds of the corrupters.”
O Allah, make us among Your righteous servants and not among the corrupt, and may You establish justice upon the corrupt.

Democratic Party Member Reveals to Sada the Reasons Behind the Cancellation of Libyan Students’ Visas

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Democratic Party member Ihsan Al-Khatib told our source on Monday that the reason behind the cancellation of Libyan students’ visas is the current situation in Libya, as U.S. authorities require comprehensive identity verification procedures.

Al-Khatib added that the decision to impose customs duties on several countries, including Libya, depends on the volume of exports. However, since Libya does not export manufactured goods, this decision does not have an impact, according to him.

Exclusive.. Central Bank Reveals to Sada That the Governor Will Not Attend the Upcoming Parliament Session Due to a Mission Abroad — Will Submit an Economic Reform Memo to Both Governments

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Our responsible source at the Central Bank confirmed exclusively that the Governor had informed the Speaker of the House of Representatives days ago that he would be traveling on an official mission, with a pre-scheduled meeting attended by his deputy, Central Bank directors in Tripoli and Benghazi, and representatives from Libyan ministries, agencies, and institutions, along with the IMF expert mission. Therefore, he will not be able to attend Tuesday’s session.

The source added: “However, he will submit to the House of Representatives a package of rapid economic reforms for both governments, which — if implemented — could completely pull the country out of this crisis, provided all concerned parties cooperate.”

Exclusive: An Important Upcoming Meeting Between Libyan, Tunisian, and Algerian Customs — Follow the Details

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Our source contacted the official spokesperson for the Customs Authority, Fahmi Al-Maqouri, who stated that a trilateral meeting between the Libyan and Tunisian Customs Authorities is set to be held soon in Tripoli next Wednesday, at the headquarters of the General Administration of the Customs Authority, with the participation of a delegation from Algeria and Tunisia.

Al-Maqouri said: “The delegation will arrive the day after tomorrow to hold individual meetings, followed by the trilateral meeting to discuss many issues of mutual interest and the agreements previously signed between the Libyan, Tunisian, and Algerian sides. These include monitoring the overland transit of foreign goods, combating land smuggling, and establishing a special committee for Libyan travelers through land and air border crossings.”

Exclusive: Hosni Bey to Sada: The Central Bank Should Follow the Libyan Saying: “Bring in Revenue Before Spending and Then Talk”

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Libyan businessman Hosni Bey told our source that the failure of states and their economies generally stems from distortions caused by public spending policies. He continued, saying the primary drivers of failure and distortions are:

  • Public spending that exceeds government revenues.
  • Central banks financing the general budget by creating money from nothing—whether through printing or virtual entries—known as Helicopter Money.

According to Hosni Bey, the Central Bank of Libya possesses all the necessary tools to achieve its core objectives. The key condition for the success of monetary policies is the first commitment: no monetary financing of public budgets and no lending to governments—neither in Libyan dinars nor in any other currency—so that governments are forced to implement austerity measures.

He added: The Central Bank should follow the Libyan proverb: “Bring in revenue before spending and then talk.”
He also stated that the Central Bank holds reserves estimated at $90 billion and is capable of buying back 100% of the dinars in circulation by selling only $30 billion, leaving reserves exceeding $60 billion.

Exclusive: Among Them Adjusting the Required Liquidity Ratio Against Depository Liabilities… Central Bank Governor Plans to Launch Reform Package

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The Governor of the Central Bank of Libya intends to launch a series of reforms that began unfolding two days ago. These reforms aim to strengthen the value of the Libyan dinar, preserve reserves, ensure financial sustainability, and secure the desired economic stability.

Among the measures is the issuance of new instructions regarding the adjustment of the required liquidity ratio to be maintained against depository liabilities.

Exclusive: Central Bank Governor to Present Reform Plan That Could Eliminate Foreign Currency Sales Tax

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The Central Bank of Libya told our source exclusively: “The Governor of the Central Bank of Libya will present a memorandum that includes a reform plan for the economic situation aimed at increasing the value of the Libyan dinar.”

The Central Bank stated: “If the reforms are approved and implemented within a maximum period of two months, the 15% tax imposed on foreign currency sales will be lifted, and the exchange rate at the bank will be fixed at 5.56 only, in accordance with the decision of the Bank’s Board of Directors.”

Al-Mana’a Writes: “Unveiling Prosperity – Mechanisms for Wealth Sharing to Achieve Peace and Equitable Growth in the Middle East and North Africa”

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Counselor Mustafa Al-Mana’a wrote: Unveiling Prosperity – Mechanisms for Wealth Sharing to Achieve Peace and Equitable Growth in the Middle East and North Africa

A reading into the World Bank’s report issued this week – April 2025

In April 2025, the World Bank issued an analytical report titled “Unveiling Prosperity: Mechanisms for Wealth Sharing for Peace and Equitable Growth in the Middle East and North Africa”, which explores the relationship between the distribution of natural wealth—especially oil and gas—and political stability and long-term economic growth in the region’s countries.

The report focuses on the management of wealth and the fairness in distributing its revenues, describing them as foundational factors for conflict and obstacles to development. It argues that adopting economic models that ensure broader and more transparent wealth-sharing could serve as a cornerstone for achieving lasting peace and sustainable development.

The World Bank noted that most countries in the region rely on a rentier economic system, in which revenues from resources are monopolized by the central state and redistributed in the form of direct subsidies or public spending—often in a non-transparent manner. According to the report, this model leads to the erosion of the social contract and deepens the trust gap between citizens and the state, particularly in fragile or post-conflict societies.

The report proposes three main levels for wealth sharing:

  1. Between the state and the citizen: This includes redirecting revenues toward services like education, health, and social protection, while also enhancing citizens’ economic capacity through direct investments in human capital.
  2. Between the center and the peripheries: Through fairer fiscal policies among regions, enabling municipalities and local authorities to directly benefit from the revenues of resources produced within their geographical areas.
  3. Between generations: By establishing strong and transparent sovereign funds that ensure part of today’s revenues are converted into long-term strategic investments, safeguarding the rights of future generations and reducing the overreliance on oil.

The report warns that the continued concentration of wealth and the absence of effective accountability mechanisms for public spending increase the risks of social unrest and weaken the chances of building more diversified and shock-resistant economies.

In reviewing some international models, the World Bank highlights the experiences of countries like Norway and Chile, which adopted clear and transparent mechanisms for sharing resource revenues—enabling them to achieve long-term economic and social stability.

The report concludes that wealth sharing should not be seen merely as an economic measure, but as a tool for political calming and rebuilding trust—making this approach an urgent necessity in countries undergoing transitions or emerging from conflict, such as Libya, Yemen, and Iraq.

The Unveiling Prosperity report serves as a call to reconsider the foundations of wealth management in the region and to develop fairer and more equitable distribution models—as a fundamental pathway to achieving peace and equitable growth.

Counselor Mustafa Al-Mana’a is a Libyan lawyer and legal and economic expert with over 23 years of experience. He has worked with several investment institutions, sovereign funds, and banks in various countries around the world, including Libya. He is an expert with international research centers and has served as a lecturer and trainer with the American Bar Association and the European Bar Association. He has also worked for years as an advisor to the Central Bank of Libya and as a board member of the Libyan Investment Authority and the Libyan Foreign Bank. He has authored numerous research papers and articles published in American, European, and Arab newspapers.