Exclusive.. Al-Shalawi: Oil Production in August Maintained Its Levels… NOC Statement Needs a More Comprehensive Oil and Financial Balance

Oil and economic expert Abdelmonsef Al-Shalawi told our source exclusively that the National Oil Corporation’s August statement should be read calmly and through the figures, away from either defending or attacking the corporation. The real value of disclosure lies in enabling the public and specialists to examine and compare the figures and understand the oil cycle from the well to storage and then to the public treasury.

Al-Shalawi explained that crude oil production reached 43,305,997 barrels in August, equivalent to an average of approximately 1.397 million barrels per day. Although the total was around 1.44 million barrels higher than in June, a more accurate comparison based on the daily average shows that production essentially maintained the same level recorded in June, at approximately 1.396 million barrels per day. This is significant because maintaining production in mature fields is not automatic; it requires continuous maintenance, drilling, overhauls, spare parts, and investment to counter the natural decline of reservoirs.

Compared with July, when production stood at approximately 41.7 million barrels, August recorded an improvement of around 3.9%, indicating a positive recovery to a higher production level following the relative decline seen in July.

Al-Shalawi continued by noting that the state’s share amounted to 31.586 million barrels, compared with 11.323 million barrels for partners. Of the state’s share, 27.642 million barrels were exported, 3.476 million barrels were transferred to refineries, and approximately 468,000 barrels were supplied to the Ubari and Mellitah power stations. These uses fully reconcile with the state’s share mathematically.

However, he explained that the combined share of the state and its partners amounts to approximately 42.909 million barrels, compared with reported production of 43.306 million barrels, leaving a difference of around 397,000 barrels. As he previously noted when analyzing the June data, this difference should not automatically be interpreted as a loss. It could have inventory, contractual, or timing-related explanations. However, publishing a clear line item under the heading “Technical and Inventory Adjustments and Differences” would eliminate room for speculation and improve the quality of disclosure.

He added that dollar receipts reached $2.555 billion in August, compared with approximately $2.26 billion in July, an increase of around $295 million, or approximately 13%. Meanwhile, royalties and taxes from concession agreements amounted to approximately LYD 2.077 billion. Here, he stressed that increased production does not necessarily translate into a proportional increase in receipts, as there are time lags between production, exports, invoicing, and collection. Therefore, it would not be economically sound to divide August revenues by August exports and derive an assumed “price per barrel.”

He also pointed out that the statement reported gas production equivalent, according to the way the figures were presented, to approximately 76.98 billion cubic feet in August, compared with around 75.3 billion cubic feet in July, an improvement of approximately 2.2%. He reiterated his previous observation that it would be preferable to standardize the unit of measurement and the way gas figures are presented, as displaying the figure “76,976.9” under the heading “billion cubic feet” could cause confusion for non-specialists. The more accurate approach would be to present it either as 76.98 billion cubic feet or 76,976.9 million cubic feet.

Al-Shalawi concluded by saying that the NOC’s continued publication of these data should be encouraged, but transparency is a cumulative process rather than a final destination. What is needed in the future is a comprehensive monthly oil and financial balance showing the opening balance, production, partners’ shares, exports, refining, domestic consumption, and end-of-month inventories, followed by total revenues collected, the amount deducted for fuel-supply appropriations, and finally the net amount transferred to the Central Bank of Libya.

He emphasized that only then will it be possible to discuss Libyan oil through figures from the well to the public treasury, while fairly distinguishing between the technical and commercial responsibilities of the NOC and the responsibilities of other state institutions concerning financing, spending, and revenue management.