Economic expert Saber Al-Wahsh wrote an article titled:
Exchange Rate Expectations in the Near Term
If a disciplined development-oriented spending policy is maintained—based on regular revenues rather than oil windfall revenues—and if the Central Bank continues to supply the market with foreign currency in a well-calculated manner that balances market needs with reserve levels, it is likely that we will witness a gradual downward trend in the exchange rate in the parallel market.
This decline will not be merely numerical; it will carry important behavioral effects, most notably a reduction in speculative demand that fuels volatility. Such speculation may gradually disappear as expectations stabilize. Demand for foreign currency for non-essential personal purposes is also expected to decline, driven by improved confidence and reduced fears of currency depreciation.
As the market reaches stable and acceptable levels, this will also reflect on the demand for letters of credit—especially those linked to non-productive activities or distorted practices—which will lose much of their incentive in a more stable and transparent environment.
In short: monetary stability is not the result of a single decision, but rather the outcome of an integrated system that includes fiscal discipline, sound liquidity management, and confidence-building. If these elements are achieved, the Libyan dinar can regain a significant part of its strength—not only in its value, but also in its role as a tool for economic stability.
